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发布时间: 2025-06-03 03:02:33北京青年报社官方账号
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  济南中医男科   

Can you trust the polls? It is a question on the minds of plenty of voters ahead of Election Day. 2016 CREDIBILITY ISSUE A major reason some voters are skeptical of the polls is because of 2016. The day before the election in 2016, Real Clear Politics Polling Average, had Hillary Clinton up +6.5% in Wisconsin. President Donald Trump went on to win Wisconsin by around 0.7%. A similar story unfolded in Michigan.EXPERTS WEIGH IN "Polling gives us a window into who we are as a people," Patrick Murray of the Monmouth Polling Institute said. “I think it really lets the public in on the secret of what the campaigns know," Lee Miringoff of the Marist College Poll said. Both pollsters are ranked as some of the most respected in the country. Both defend the polling process but acknowledge mistakes were made by some in 2016. "The problem that we had in 2016 was not that polling was any more inaccurate than it had been in the past. It was just that the inaccuracies happened to be in one particular direction," Murray said. What pollsters now know is then-candidate Donald Trump persuaded white voters to break with long-held, predictable voting habits and vote for him. Polling samples that once represented the population at-large, no longer did. "The media looked at that and portrayed what we were showing there as being more precise of a prediction than it could ever be," Murray said. These pollsters do not believe a "Silent Trump Voter" exists -- that is someone who is reluctant to tell a pollster they support Trump. “The so-called secret Trump voter doesn’t exist in terms of polling and the idea that polling is missing certain voters," Murray said. "Here you have a president now for 3 1/2 years, almost four years, as president of the United States, so people aren't going to feel a great reluctance to speak to their feelings on that topic," Lee Miringoff said. WHAT SHOULD YOU BELIEVE?Both pollsters agree that taking a range of polls and not any one in particular may be the best way to approach polling. “So the polls, you know, can be trusted not to sway you necessarily but to inform," Lee Miringoff said. "I think the idea behind averages is a good one. Because there always is going to be a range of result," Murray said. 2254

  济南中医男科   

CAMP PENDLETON, Calif. (KGTV) — A pair of brothers was arrested this week after police say they tried to carjack a man working on his vehicle on Interstate 5, assaulted him, and fled onto Camp Pendleton property.The brothers were traveling on southbound I-5 on Tuesday at about 10 a.m. when their Ford Mustang broke down just north of Las Pulgas Road. The pair walked to Vista Point and asked a truck driver for a ride to Long Beach, but the driver said no, California Highway Patrol said.The brothers then approached a 58-year-old man from San Diego who was working on his broken-down vehicle. The man was leaning over the engine of his vehicle with the hood up when one of the brothers placed the man in a headlock while the other brother assaulted the man in the face and body, CHP said.The truck driver who denied the brothers a lift saw the attack and came to the victim's aid. The brothers fled the area west, and climbed over a fence onto Camp Pendleton, said CHP.Camp Pendelton Police were nearby and quickly found and detained the two. CHP officers responded to the scene as well. The victim received moderate to major injuries during the assault and is expected to recover.Gonzalo Lopez, 24, and Eusebio Lopez, 19, both from Long Beach, were arrested and charged with assault and battery, and attempted carjacking. Gonzalo was also charged with driving under the influence while Eusebio was charged with being drunk in public. 1444

  济南中医男科   

CASS COUNTY, Ind. — Six people, including four children, died early Wednesday morning in a house fire near Logansport, Indiana.The fire started at about 1:45 a.m., Wednesday in the 4300 block of Pottawatomie Road. Deputies who arrived said they climbed on the roof and broke windows to try and get inside, but the flames were too intense, Logansport Pharos-Tribune reporter Mitchell Kirk said.A man and a woman made it out of the house and were hospitalized. The cause of the fire is still under investigation. The Indiana Fire Marshal's Office has assigned three investigators to the site.  634

  

CHARLESTON, S.C. -- Ocean views, seafood and southern hospitality are what travelers can expect when visiting Charleston, South Carolina.“Charleston is a tourist destination," restaurant owner Eli Hyman said. "I think it’s one of the most beautiful cities in the world.”Multiple publications, including Conde Nast Traveler, have ranked it as the number one small city to visit in the U.S. Seventh generation Charlestonian Michael Trouche is an expert on tourism in the city. He’s the owner of Charleston Footprint Walking Tours.“We are unique to America," Trouche said. "We have so many things here that are appealing. We’ve got this magnificent, beautiful, well-preserved city in this large contiguous area of about four-square miles, this wonderful climate with all kinds of blooming gardens and trees. You’ve got Charleston right on the waterfront, right on the Atlantic Ocean… and of course... a great southern hospitality. Charleston has always been known as being a very friendly city, so people just love it. People keep coming here and they keep coming back.”However, the past eight months and counting have been a nightmare for business and restaurant owners like Eli Hyman of Hyman’s Seafood.“It’s kind of spooky quiet... it’s eerie," Hyman said. "Because normally these streets would be bustling in the fall. It’s beautiful weather.”Like most places across the country, the COVID-19 pandemic has hit the city hard. Robert Smith is the owner of a local marketing company called The Chart Group.“It almost was like overnight," Smith said. "First we heard about this virus overseas, and next thing you know we’re shutting our city down.”Considering the Chart Group offers video production and content creation for Charleston businesses, Smith depends on a thriving tourism industry. As everything shut down, his clients could no longer pay for his services. He too had to furlough employees.“Tourism within the last 30 or 40 years has become a major component," Trouche said. "It’s multi-millions of dollars in revenue for the city and for businesses and so it is a big player economically in Charleston.”Some businesses have closed forever and those that have survived had to let go of staff.“We had a staff of close to 200," Hyman said. "We’re down to about 130. We have a significant amount of them – about 40 or 45 – that have been with me for 15 years, so I have no choice but to keep my doors open. I’m going to do it for them.”Walking tours around the city only takes one person and Trouche says even that has been a struggle.“I typically give six day’s worth of tours and many times twice a day. I’ve gotten to the point where I may be giving two or three tours in an entire week.”Thankfully, there is hope. Business owners say tourism dollars are coming back as restrictions have been lifted and people are feeling more comfortable leaving home, especially on weekends. According to Erin Francis-Cummings, the president and CEO of Destination Analysts, research confirms that’s likely true.“Just last week when we surveyed American travelers, one in five said they felt like people in their personal networks were traveling more. They feel like they’ve observed that,” Francis-Cummings said.As we learn more about the virus and what can best protect us, Francis-Cummings says more people are feeling safe about traveling. However, if tourism businesses want to do well, she says they need to show that they care about the safety of their customers.“If they have the protocols in place and people feel safe, they will get business.”Francis-Cummings predicts there will be even more travelers once we have a vaccine. In the meantime, Robert says many are eager for another stimulus package from the government.“Helping these businesses through the pandemic and getting back on their feet in our opinion is the most important thing,” Smith said.Taking it day by day, business owners say they pray they’ll come out of this strong.“With God’s good grace we’ll get out of this soon," Hyman said. "Come to Charleston and come to visit.” 4054

  

CHICAGO, Ill. – Born in Mississippi, Syl Johnson rose to prominence as a velvet-voiced pop recording artist and producer in the 1950s and 60s. In recent years, he filed lawsuits against artists like Kanye West and Jay-Z for sampling his work. But it was his potent refrain about systemic racism in America, covered and sampled dozens of times, that continues to resonate today.It wasn’t until a decade into his musical career that the soul singer penned his most powerful single“I wrote it because that type of thing was happening to people and then they killed Dr. King,” said Johnson.It was the 1968 assassination of Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. That made him question the dream.The lyrics painfully questioning the black experience: “Looking back over my false dreams, that I once knew… Wondering why my dreams never came true… Is it because I'm Black?”“I didn’t want to write something that was militant,” said Johnson. “I wanted to write something that was truth. It was truth. Is it because I’m Black? It was.”Released in September 1969 “Is It Because I’m Black” struck a nerve.“In this world of no pity… I was raised in the ghetto of the city,” he sang.Call-in requests catapulted it to number 11 on the Billboard Soul Singles Chart in just weeks.Though, the Black concept album failed to find financial success, 50 years later, Johnson is now in his early 80s and seeing the resonance of his lyrics on the streets.“I didn’t know it would last this long,” he said. “But it looks like this song is the topic of the times. The times right now.”The killing of George Floyd, he says, is a response to the question he first posed – “Is it because I'm Black?”It is in the face of renewed examinations of race in America and calls for justice that Johnson is hopeful.“The younger whites and the younger Blacks should make it happen,” he said. “When they join together to make it happen, this world will be a beautiful place.”And one day he hopes the question won’t need to be asked. 1988

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