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SAN DIEGO (KGTV) — As states continue to count votes, one thing is clear: the pre-election polls were off again.Pollsters underestimated support for President Donald Trump by a wider margin than they did in 2016, prompting a number of theories about what went wrong and why changes adopted after the 2016 election proved ineffective.Heading into Election Day 2020, candidate Joe Biden led Trump nationally by an average of 8.4%, according to FiveThirtyEight’s polling average. We won’t know the final margin until all the votes are counted, but it looks like Trump’s support was underestimated by about 3.5%.That’s wider than the national popular vote miss in 2016, when the polls underestimated Trump’s support by 1.1%.“Polling emerged from 2016 with a black eye. This is fair to say a second black eye in 2020,” said Jay Leve of polling firm SurveyUSA.Leve said the industry thought it had corrected its 2016 mistakes. Polling in the 2018 midterms was very accurate.In 2020, pollsters made sure to weigh for education level and include enough non-college-educated white voters to try to capture a representative sample of the electorate.But state polls show it didn’t work. In Ohio, there was a nearly 8-point miss. In Wisconsin, there was a nearly 10-point miss. In Florida, the polls missed by 5 points and incorrectly showed Biden in the lead.“While pollsters attempted to correct for the mistakes that they made in 2016, President Trump was busy hammering home a narrative that, number one, the media is the enemy of the people. And number two, polls are fake polls,” Leve said.Leve thinks that skepticism and distrust caused Trump supporters to ignore pollsters at a higher rate, causing them to be underrepresented in samples.San Diego State political scientist Dr. Stephen Goggin says there are other theories as well.“Between mail-in balloting, the pandemic, between all the early voting and all the confusion it creates, it’s possible some of that played a role in creating the error we saw this time,” he said.Goggin said the pandemic may have made the models used to predict voter turnout less accurate this cycle. Many surveys heading into the election showed an unusual trend: Biden was polling better among so-called “likely voters” than among registered voters overall. Typically Republicans hold an edge among likely voters, Nate Cohn of the New York Times noted.There’s also some early data suggesting once the pandemic hit, Democrats started responding to surveys more frequently, something that could have shifted the poll numbers.There may have also been issues surveying certain demographic groups. Pre-election polls showed Biden chipping away at Trump’s lead with seniors compared to 2016, but Biden actually did worse than Clinton with that demographic in certain key states. Trump’s support among Hispanic voters in Florida also surprised pollsters. If exit polling data shows that trend continued in other states, it might explain about one-quarter of this year’s polling error, according to the New York Times.“Many of these errors are fixable when they find out what went wrong and you can still get high-quality samples,” Goggin said.Pollsters are planning to do detailed autopsies on the election once they have final turnout data and results by precinct. Polling firms will eventually post detailed data from their results to the Roper Center for more finely tuned analysis.ABC 10News used SurveyUSA this election cycle to poll 11 state and local races. The final polls accurately predicted the winner in all 11 races, although the margins weren’t perfect.The ABC 10News/Union-Tribune scientific polls actually overestimated Trump’s support in California by about 4 points, relative to vote totals as of November 12. 3757

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) -- Chief Edward Gallagher has retired weeks after it was determined his rank would remain intact, an attorney confirmed. In late November, Gallagher and three other SEALs were notified that a board of peers would determine whether or not they should remain SEALs, the Associated Press reported. President Donald Trump then ordered the Navy to allow Gallagher to retire as a SEAL with his rank intact. Defense Secretary Mark Esper allowed Gallagher to retire without the possibility of being removed from the SEALs — at the President's direction — shortly after firing then-Navy Secretary Richard Spencer over his handling of the case.RELATED:Trump says Navy won’t remove Gallagher’s SEAL’s designationEsper says Trump ordered him to allow SEAL to keep statusPentagon chief fires Navy secretary over SEAL controversy“I have directed the Chief of Naval Operations to terminate the Trident Reviews for three Naval Special Warfare officers. Given the unique circumstances of these three remaining cases, I have determined that any failures in conduct, performance, judgment, or professionalism exhibited by these officers be addressed through other administrative measures as appropriate, such as letters of instruction or performance observations on their officer fitness reports," Modly wrote.Gallagher was acquitted of murder in the deadly stabbing of an Islamic State militant captive in Iraq. He was, however, convicted of posing with a corpse. 1471

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) - Border agents have seen a huge drop in traffic along the San Diego Sector ports of entry since the Trump Administration restricted all non-essential travel at the U.S.-Mexico border last Friday.In a conference call with reporters on Monday morning, U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) revealed new details about its plan to handle the implications of the restrictions on the migrant population and the cross-border worker population. Recent tweets posted by CBP showed empty ports of entry. “We have seen about a 70% decrease on average at all our ports of entry,” said a CBP spokesperson during Monday’s conference call. That plunge in foot and vehicle traffic comes after the border restrictions took effect on Saturday.CBP said Monday that the restrictions don't apply to U.S. citizens, legal permanent residents or those traveling for medical, work or educational purposes.The agency reports that people’s work verification or documentation is currently on a sort of “honor system”. “At this point in time, we are not formally asking for verification or employment ID,” said a spokesperson on Monday.A spokesperson also reaffirmed that most apprehended migrants will be returned immediately, adding in part, “Individuals are no longer being held in detention areas.Quick interviews will be conducted in the field. Basic biographic scans run in the field as well. Then the individual will be [taken] back to the border and expelled to the country they came from.”There's now at least a 48-hour suspension on migrants crossing for court hearings, said a CBP spokesperson, who added that all new asylum seekers will be reviewed independently. “We're taking each case, case by case, depending on what the claim is, the nationality and the country from which they come from,” he added.“I'm particularly concerned about the asylum migrancy [population],” said Rafael Fernández de Castro, a U.S.-Mexico relations expert at UC San Diego. “In the shelters in Tijuana, sometimes there's 15, 20 [or even] 40 people sleeping in a room. That's basically a horrible story because that's a way to get a lot of migrants contaminated with coronavirus,” he added in his interview with 10News. CBP also reported that it’s making sure its officers have the necessary personal protective equipment like masks and gloves. 2335

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) - As re-closures loom in San Diego County, anxiety is building.Licensed Psychologist Dr. Michelle Carcel said she and other colleagues noticed higher anxiety and depression among those who are isolating."Then there's the reality of, 'okay the cases are surging and things are starting to shut down again,' so there is that isolation anxiety," Dr. Carcel said, explaining we are pack animals and can feel in danger if alone for extended periods of time.She said on the flip side, some are feeling a sense of comfort in a new routine that's taking root, as we enter the fourth month of the pandemic.The possibility of all indoor activities getting shut down Monday threatens that new normal many have created.Dr. Carcel said there are still options to get together, "we can get creative with this. There's hiking outdoors, there's biking we can do. All of that within the context of social distancing." Another anxiety is the job market. While unemployment is down for the sixth straight week, SANDAG said 200,000 San Diegans are still out of work.Dr. Carcel acknowledges these times are hard but it is important to have hope. "We're just constantly thinking in absolutes, 'Oh it will never reopen. It will never get better,' that is a very bad way to think, we actually want to think about this being temporary because it will be."She impressed the importance of vaccines being developed at light speed and suggested those who are anxious about the re-closures should create a game plan."We talk about a cope ahead plan on specific things we can do in lieu of things we are currently enjoying if things shut down again so that we're not disappointed," Dr. Carcel said.She reminded us this is temporary, and we will make it through. 1755

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) -- At least one person died in a Bay Park crash as rain soaked the roads in San Diego County Sunday morning. According to California Highway Patrol, the crash happened just before 6 a.m. Sunday on northbound Interstate 5 just before Clairemont Drive. CHP reports that the vehicle was traveling at high speeds just before the crash. At least three vehicles were involved in the crash. According to CHP, the driver of a pickup truck crashed into the center divide before being struck by two other vehicles. The driver of the truck was standing outside his vehicle when he was hit and killed by one of the vehicles. The driver was 48-year-old Joseph Vito Berardino, according to the medical examiner. At this time, it’s unclear how many more people may have been injured. 794

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