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The Postal Service says it is facing “historic volumes” going into its busiest shipping week of the year. While Tuesday marks the final day the Post Office recommends shipping packages via ground in time for Christmas, the USPS says there are still a number of options for customers hoping to get their packages to loved ones by Dec. 25.In an effort to assist customers, the USPS says it is enacting a number of measures in hopes of ensuring timely deliveries.Those measures include:Expanded holiday retail hours in select locationsExpanded package delivery window — delivery in morning, afternoon, and early evening where volume warrantsExpanded operational capacity with new equipmentLease extra vehicles as needed to expedite deliveriesFor customers in the continental US, the USPS recommends the following mailing and shipping deadlines for expected delivery by Dec. 25 to most US addresses.Dec. 15 — USPS Retail Ground serviceDec. 18 — APO/FPO/DPO (except ZIP Code 093) USPS Priority Mail Express serviceDec. 18 — First-Class Mail service (including greeting cards)Dec. 18 — First-class packages (up to 15.99 ounces)Dec. 19 — Priority Mail serviceDec. 23 — Priority Mail Express serviceUSPS notes that only the Priority Mail Express service is a guarantee, and the other deadlines are merely recommendations. “We thank our customers for their continued support, and we are committed to making sure gifts and cards are delivered on time to celebrate the holidays,” said Kristin Seaver, Chief Retail and Delivery Officer of the Postal Service. “We also thank our 644,000 employees who are working tirelessly throughout these unique conditions to ensure the delivery of holiday gifts and greetings."Heading into the holidays, USPS service reported significant slowdowns. For the months of July, August and September, USPS reported single-piece first-class mail fell below its annual benchmarks, and past performance. During the quarter, three-to-five day on-time service dropped from 87.8% in 2019 to 72.1% in 2020. Its two-day on-time service dropped from 94% to 88.2% from 2019 to 2020. 2099

The polling industry has a lot on the line heading into Tuesday's midterm election.Critics blamed pollsters when voters were caught off guard by Donald Trump's election in 2016. Old cries of "don't believe the polls" became fevered shouts. And the president has encouraged distrust by calling certain polls "fake" and claiming they are used to "suppress" the vote.Although there is no evidence to suggest that is true, there is persistent and widespread suspicion about polling, according to, you guessed it, a McClatchy-Marist poll. And it exists on both sides, albeit in different forms."I think Democrats may have felt let down by the polls but don't think it was an intentional error. I think many Republicans believe the polling errors of 2016 were intentional," GOP pollster and co-founder of Echelon Insights Kristen Soltis Anderson told CNN.So can the industry regain trust?Since 2016 there's been a whole lot of self-reflection in the polling world. Pollsters have tweaked their techniques; pundits have become more cautious when talking about polls; and news outlets have conducted some fascinating experiments.On Tuesday, all the efforts are being put to the test."Some pollsters would disagree with this, but the way that the public generally views whether or not polling is accurate is whether or not it gets the results of the election right," CNN analyst Harry Enten said on "Reliable Sources.""I'm not necessarily sure that's fair," Enten said, "but I do think that there is more pressure on pollsters this year to get it right given the president's rhetoric and given what happened in 2016."Many, though not all, 2016 polls underestimated support for Trump. This effect was particularly pronounced at the state level, where there were embarrassing "misses," showing Hillary Clinton with safe leads in states Trump actually carried.Most national polls accurately showed Clinton winning the popular vote. But reporters and commentators made lots of mistakes in their interpretations of the polls. Readers and viewers did, too. Many people discounted the margin and other factors and made faulty assumptions that Trump would lose to Clinton.There were other problems, too. Predictive features on websites gained lots of traffic before the election but caused lots of consternation afterward. HuffPost's model infamously showed Clinton with a 98 percent chance of winning. "We blew it," the site admitted afterward.But just as importantly, HuffPost's Natalie Jackson tried to explain why.Other news outlets have also tried to be more transparent and remind voters of what polls cannot convey.In special elections since 2016, Democrats have repeatedly outperformed polls of their races.The top example was the Virginia governors' race. "Ralph Northam was favored by three points. He ended up winning by nine," Enten said.But past outcomes are not an indicator of future results."I think many pollsters and forecasters have tried to be much more intentional about explaining uncertainty and being humble about what data can and can't tell us," Anderson said. "Because I think there was a big sense that in 2016, there was more certainty conveyed than may have been justified by the available data."So political pros and reporters are communicating poll results differently this time. Time magazine's Molly Ball, who has a no-predictions rule for herself, said that even people who do make predictions are adding more caveats: There's "less of the, 'Well, the needle shows this' and more of, 'Here's what it doesn't show, here's what we should always remember can happen about probabilities.'"Early voting has been explosive in the midterms, indicating above-average enthusiasm among both Democrats and Republicans. Pollsters have to make assumptions about turnout when contacting "likely voters," and this is a difficult election to forecast.The 2018 electorate is "a universe that doesn't exist yet," Democratic pollster Margie Omero said. "I mean, people don't know whether they're going to vote, some people."They may tell a pollster that they're sure to vote, but never make it to the ballot box. Or they might change who they're voting for.Conversely, certain subsets of voters may have a big impact on the final results without really showing up in the pre-election polling. If pollsters assume relatively low youth turnout, but lots of young people vote for the first time, that could cause big surprises in certain races.The vast majority of people who are called by pollsters decline to participate, so the researchers have to make a huge number of phone calls, bend over backwards to reach a representative sample of people, and weight their results accordingly.Some polls are higher quality than others. Most news outlets tend to favor live interviewers, as opposed to computerized systems, and a mix of landline and cell phone calls. But some outlets are wading into web-based polling. CNN's polling standards preclude reporting on web polls.This fall The New York Times pulled back the curtain by conducting "live polling" and publishing the results in real time, call by call. Working with Siena College, the surveyors made 2,822,889 calls and completed 96 polls of House and Senate races."We wanted to demystify polling for people," said Nate Cohn of The Times' Upshot blog."From our point of view, it's almost a miracle how accurate polls usually are, given all the challenges," Cohn said in an interview with CNN.He emphasized that polls are "very fuzzy things." And the real-time polling showed this to the public. The researchers sought to interview about 500 people for each race that was examined.In Iowa's fourth congressional district, for example, 14,636 calls resulted in 423 interviews.The results showed the incumbent, far-right congressman Steve King, with 47% support, and his Democratic challenger J.D. Scholten with 42%.The Times characterized this as a "slight edge" for King, with lots of room for error. "The margin of sampling error on the overall lead is 10 points, roughly twice as large as the margin for a single candidate's vote share," the Times explained on its website.Cohn's final pre-election story noted that "even modest late shifts among undecided voters or a slightly unexpected turnout could significantly affect results."That's the kind of language that lots of polling experts are incorporating into their stories and live shots, especially in the wake of the 2016 election."With polling, you never actually get to the truth," Cohn said. "You inch towards it, and you think you end up within plus or minus 5 points of it at the end."As Enten put it, "polls are tools," not meant to be perfect. But that message needs to be reinforced through the news media. 6753

The Pac-12 has set Sept. 26 as the start of its 10-game conference-only football schedule. The Pac-12 announced three weeks ago it would eliminate nonconference games for its 12 member schools.. The new plan adds an additional cross-divisional game to each team’s slate and moves the conference championship game back two weeks to Dec. 18 or 19. That game was set to be played for the first time at the new NFL stadium in Las Vegas. It will now be hosted by the highest-seeded team.“From the onset of the COVID-19 crisis, we have been committed to prioritizing the health and safety of our student-athletes and all those connected to our athletic programs,” said Pac-12 Commissioner Larry Scott. “The schedule and plans approved today and path to return to competition are subject to public health orders and will be taken in accordance with the health and well-being guidelines developed by our Pac-12 Medical Advisory Committee. The schedule and return to play plans provide for maximum flexibility and the best opportunity to play all fall sports in an environment that prioritizes safety. At the same time, we will continue to evaluate the best available science, data and advice of public health officials as we make decisions and any required adjustments going forward.” 1284

The Indianapolis 500 will be held without fans in attendance on Aug. 23 due to escalating concerns over the coronavirus pandemic in Marion County, the Indianapolis Motor Speedway announced Tuesday.It will mark the first time in the 109-year history of the Indy 500 that it will be run in front of empty stands at the 2.5-mile oval track.“As dedicated as we were to running the race this year with 25 percent attendance at our large outdoor facility, even with meaningful and careful precautions implemented by the city and state, the COVID-19 trends in Marion County and Indiana have worsened," a news release from IMS said.First held in 1911, the Indianapolis 500 is the largest single-day sporting event in the world with approximately 350,000 people annually packing the track's grandstands and infield to watch "The Greatest Spectacle in Racing." Running the race without fans prevents the seventh cancellation in Indy 500 history. The race was not held in 1917-18 during World War I, and from 1942-45 during World War II.In late March, IMS leaders rescheduled the race from May 24 to Aug. 23. Officials said on June 26 that Indy 500 attendance would be limited to no more than 50%.That number was further decreased on July 22 when plans were scaled back to host the race at 25% capacity. Face coverings would be required, and the Speedway released an 88-page health and safety plan that provided guidelines and protocols for how the race would be run in 2020.Even at 25% capacity, the race would have been the largest event held in the United States since the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic.IndyCar and IMS owner Roger Penske previously said he wouldn't run the race without fans, but the realities of the pandemic prevailed.“We need to be safe and smart about this,” Penske told the Associated Press. “Obviously we want full attendance, but we don’t want to jeopardize the health and safety of our fans and the community. We also don’t want to jeopardize the ability to hold a successful race.”In a news release, IMS said in the weeks since the June 26 announcement of 50% capacity, the number of COVID-19 cases in Marion County has tripled while the positivity rate has doubled."We said from the beginning of the pandemic we would put the health and safety of our community first, and while hosting spectators at limited capacity with our robust plan in place was appropriate in late June, it is not the right path forward based on the current environment," the release said.How fans will be impactedThe announcement of no fans on race day also means all on-track activity during the month of August, including practice and qualifications, will be closed to the public. The first practice will take place on Aug. 12.Fans who still have tickets to the 2020 Indy 500 will be credited for the 2021 race and retain their seniority and originally assigned seats.Additionally, as announced in July, the race will be broadcast live on TV in Central Indiana for the first time since 2016.State and city leaders react to Speedway's decisionIndiana Gov. Eric Holcomb issued a statement following the announcement thanking Penske and IMS leadership and encouraging Hoosiers to do what they can to prevent the spread of COVID-19. 3239

The man who confronted and helped stop a gunman at a Tennessee Waffle House has released a mini-documentary early Tuesday morning, to mark one month since the attack that left four people dead.James Shaw Jr. released the video on YouTube. It's set to the Drake song "God's Plan," and shows the moments Shaw presented the families of the victims with large checks from a GoFundMe campaign Shaw launched after the shootings. Shaw presented the donations to the families privately last week on the campus of Tennessee State University.Shaw raised more than 0,000 in the online campaign.Shaw is credited with saving lives during the April shooting. He told police he was able to wrestle the gunman's AR-15 away from him. Shaw said in a social media post that the documentary is meant to honor the four victims: DeEbony Groves, Akilah DaSilva, Joe Perez, and Taurean Sanderlin. 913

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