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SAN DIEGO (KGTV) — After the polls close on Election Night, ABC News and the other major networks will start projecting winners and “calling” races, in some cases well before the official vote counts are finalized.They’ll do it by relying on data from a New Jersey-based company called Edison Research.Edison provides exit polls, survey data, and vote counts for ABC, NBC, CBS and CNN. The company has provided data for this group of networks, known as the National Election Pool, since 2004.“We know what we're doing is really, really important,” said the company’s president Larry Rosin.In certain races, networks will project a winner shortly after the polls close, sometimes before state election officials report any official vote totals. Such a projection is nicknamed an “insta-call” in the news business.Networks only make insta-calls in races where Edison’s exit polls and telephone surveys in the days leading up to the election show a decisive winner, Rosin said.ABC News only issues a projection when statistical models overseen by a team of mathematicians and elections experts show a winner with 99.5 percent confidence.Each network has its own team of experts that crunch Edison’s numbers. Fox News makes projections based on data provided by the Associated Press.When a race is close, the network decision teams turn to more complicated math.“It’s a matter of looking at that historical vote all the way down to the precinct or county level and comparing how the vote is coming in, in that state up to that point,” said Rosin.On Election Night, Edison has thousands of employees fanned out in virtually every county across the nation, monitoring the vote count as it comes in and manually reporting the totals when necessary. There are other employees whose job is to check the numbers for accuracy.Edison’s data helps networks understand how preliminary vote totals compare to the way regions voted in the past, which is an important metric in an election forecast.“If every precinct was just a little bit more Republican than it had been four years ago, you have a good sense that all the other precincts that are similar will likely be a little more Republican, and the Republican will do a little better than four years ago,” Rosin said as an example.Using those kinds of trends, the networks then forecast how many ballots are still left to be counted, and what kind of ballots those are -- either in-person early votes, in-person votes on Election Day, or mail-in votes.At that point it comes down to a formula, comparing the known reported votes to the outstanding votes a candidate is likely to gain.“It’s a very high pressure project, but I’m proud to say that no network has made an incorrect call since the 2004 cycle,” which was Edison’s first year providing election data to the networks, Rosin said.The company started doing this after the debacle in 2000, when networks incorrectly called the race in Florida between George W. Bush and Al Gore. Rosin said a lot of things have changed since then.“The pressure to make calls correctly really superseded the pressure to call quickly,” he said.This year could be a challenging one to forecast, Rosin said, with so many more mail-in ballots because of the pandemic. Mail-in ballots take longer to process because election workers have to compare the signature on the mail-in ballot against the signature a voter has on file.For that reason, Rosin said it may take a while for the networks to call races in certain key battleground states that start their counting process late, like Pennsylvania and Michigan. 3594

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) -- A teen is fighting for his life at Sharp Memorial Hospital after he was hit by a Jeep while riding his bike in Clairemont.According to CHP officers, the accident happened just before 9 p.m. on Saturday. Officers say a Jeep was getting onto the freeway at the Clairemont Mesa Boulevard on-ramp to the 805-N when he hit the teen riding his bike. The driver says he never saw the teen until it was too late. According to officers, the teen was not in a designated cross walk, but near it. The driver of the Jeep stayed on scene, his passenger jumped out to perform CPR while paramedics arrived.The teen suffered life threatening injuries. Drugs or alcohol are not suspected in the crash 712

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) - An elderly woman died while she was with her family waiting to cross the border into San Diego Sunday afternoon, according to our reporting partner Televisa.Televisa reported it is unknown why the woman, who was in her late 80s, passed away.This comes as people on both sides of the border expressed frustration at incredibly long wait times."It's unfortunate because I think the policies that CBP puts in place, protocols, punish border crossers," Pedro Rios said. He said it took four hours to cross in Otay Mesa on Saturday.New protocols went into effect on Friday due to the pandemic. Customs and Border Protection planned on slowing down traffic, closing lanes and adding secondary inspections, aimed at delaying those traveling for non-essential reasons.In addition to San Diego, Tucson, Arizona, El Paso, and Laredo Texas have similar protocols in place.One woman waiting to cross into San Ysidro told Televisa, "Yes it is difficult, but no one wants to be here in Tijuana."Another woman said they were heading to the U.S. to visit friends and go to the beach. When Televisa asked if they thought that was essential travel, they replied in Spanish, "Yes, because we're tired and angry. If you're following the regulations, staying away from people, have your mask and disinfectant ... if you're following the protocol, you can."The restrictions on non-essential travel do not apply to anyone crossing the border for work, school, or medical treatment.The restrictions are set to continue through September 21.ABC 10News reached out to CBP for comment and will update this story when they respond. 1630

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) - A water main break Monday forced San Diego firefighters to evacuate Point Loma neighbors due to a potential hillside collapse.The break happened about 2:30 p.m. on Larga Circle near Leland St. The residential area is just west of the Vons shopping center on Midway Drive.According to SDFD, 10 homes were evacuated due to the break. The broken water main is on a slope between homes at the top and bottom of the slope. At least one home had flooding to the garage.City engineers are being called to the scene. 545

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) — Across the country and here in San Diego County, large groups of people have taken to the streets to protest over the death of George Floyd and racial injustices.The mass gatherings have health professionals concerned that we could see another spike in COVID-19 cases."While we understand why they’re congregating and the anger that’s out there right now, the unfortunate consequences are probably going to be that there will be more people infected and more people coming to our hospital systems," said Dr. David Pride, an infectious disease specialist and the director of Molecular Microbiology at UC San Diego Health. "Sometimes, passion sort of overtakes being cognizant of the fact that this is a global pandemic."That passion has been very evident in San Diego as hundreds of protesters filled many streets for several days."When we see that people are not social distancing, we get concerned that we’re going to see spikes," said Pride.Whether you are a protester, an officer, or a member of the press covering the demonstrations, COVID-19 remains a problem for everyone.Social distancing was nonexistent at the protests across the county, and while many people did have on masks, others did not. To add to the risk, officers also deployed tear gas, causing some demonstrators to cough into the crowds.“The idea that some of them are now coughing, that’s concerning,” said Pride. “The easiest way to spread the virus is through respiratory and oral droplets. There could be asymptomatic people in these crowds, spreading the virus to a lot of people who are vulnerable, and only time will tell what the effects of this are for the San Diego area.”The public gatherings have been some of the largest we’ve seen in a while, in addition to recent protests to stay-at-home orders.Pride said he and other health professionals are not only concerned about the demonstration, but also about the loosening of restrictions and reopening.“We’re starting to notice differences in different parts of San Diego County. Certain parts are hotbeds for disease right now, and as we reopen and people start to mix from all different parts of San Diego, everyone is at risk,” he said. “This disease is not going anywhere, it’s going to be with us until there’s a proper vaccination.”Pride said UCSD Health has been preparing to increase the number of daily COVID-19 tests.“Right now, we’re testing somewhere around 800 people a day, and we’re gearing up to maybe even triple that if we can,” he said.Pride said it would take about a week or two to understand the consequences of the latest demonstrations. He does expect the hospitalization rate to increase.In the meantime, he said if you are not staying at home, the best thing you can continue to do while out in public is social distance and always wear a facial covering.“In the absence of a vaccine, two things that all of us can do are social distance as best we can and make certain we have a strict adherence to a masking policy,” he said. 3013

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