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The polling industry has a lot on the line heading into Tuesday's midterm election.Critics blamed pollsters when voters were caught off guard by Donald Trump's election in 2016. Old cries of "don't believe the polls" became fevered shouts. And the president has encouraged distrust by calling certain polls "fake" and claiming they are used to "suppress" the vote.Although there is no evidence to suggest that is true, there is persistent and widespread suspicion about polling, according to, you guessed it, a McClatchy-Marist poll. And it exists on both sides, albeit in different forms."I think Democrats may have felt let down by the polls but don't think it was an intentional error. I think many Republicans believe the polling errors of 2016 were intentional," GOP pollster and co-founder of Echelon Insights Kristen Soltis Anderson told CNN.So can the industry regain trust?Since 2016 there's been a whole lot of self-reflection in the polling world. Pollsters have tweaked their techniques; pundits have become more cautious when talking about polls; and news outlets have conducted some fascinating experiments.On Tuesday, all the efforts are being put to the test."Some pollsters would disagree with this, but the way that the public generally views whether or not polling is accurate is whether or not it gets the results of the election right," CNN analyst Harry Enten said on "Reliable Sources.""I'm not necessarily sure that's fair," Enten said, "but I do think that there is more pressure on pollsters this year to get it right given the president's rhetoric and given what happened in 2016."Many, though not all, 2016 polls underestimated support for Trump. This effect was particularly pronounced at the state level, where there were embarrassing "misses," showing Hillary Clinton with safe leads in states Trump actually carried.Most national polls accurately showed Clinton winning the popular vote. But reporters and commentators made lots of mistakes in their interpretations of the polls. Readers and viewers did, too. Many people discounted the margin and other factors and made faulty assumptions that Trump would lose to Clinton.There were other problems, too. Predictive features on websites gained lots of traffic before the election but caused lots of consternation afterward. HuffPost's model infamously showed Clinton with a 98 percent chance of winning. "We blew it," the site admitted afterward.But just as importantly, HuffPost's Natalie Jackson tried to explain why.Other news outlets have also tried to be more transparent and remind voters of what polls cannot convey.In special elections since 2016, Democrats have repeatedly outperformed polls of their races.The top example was the Virginia governors' race. "Ralph Northam was favored by three points. He ended up winning by nine," Enten said.But past outcomes are not an indicator of future results."I think many pollsters and forecasters have tried to be much more intentional about explaining uncertainty and being humble about what data can and can't tell us," Anderson said. "Because I think there was a big sense that in 2016, there was more certainty conveyed than may have been justified by the available data."So political pros and reporters are communicating poll results differently this time. Time magazine's Molly Ball, who has a no-predictions rule for herself, said that even people who do make predictions are adding more caveats: There's "less of the, 'Well, the needle shows this' and more of, 'Here's what it doesn't show, here's what we should always remember can happen about probabilities.'"Early voting has been explosive in the midterms, indicating above-average enthusiasm among both Democrats and Republicans. Pollsters have to make assumptions about turnout when contacting "likely voters," and this is a difficult election to forecast.The 2018 electorate is "a universe that doesn't exist yet," Democratic pollster Margie Omero said. "I mean, people don't know whether they're going to vote, some people."They may tell a pollster that they're sure to vote, but never make it to the ballot box. Or they might change who they're voting for.Conversely, certain subsets of voters may have a big impact on the final results without really showing up in the pre-election polling. If pollsters assume relatively low youth turnout, but lots of young people vote for the first time, that could cause big surprises in certain races.The vast majority of people who are called by pollsters decline to participate, so the researchers have to make a huge number of phone calls, bend over backwards to reach a representative sample of people, and weight their results accordingly.Some polls are higher quality than others. Most news outlets tend to favor live interviewers, as opposed to computerized systems, and a mix of landline and cell phone calls. But some outlets are wading into web-based polling. CNN's polling standards preclude reporting on web polls.This fall The New York Times pulled back the curtain by conducting "live polling" and publishing the results in real time, call by call. Working with Siena College, the surveyors made 2,822,889 calls and completed 96 polls of House and Senate races."We wanted to demystify polling for people," said Nate Cohn of The Times' Upshot blog."From our point of view, it's almost a miracle how accurate polls usually are, given all the challenges," Cohn said in an interview with CNN.He emphasized that polls are "very fuzzy things." And the real-time polling showed this to the public. The researchers sought to interview about 500 people for each race that was examined.In Iowa's fourth congressional district, for example, 14,636 calls resulted in 423 interviews.The results showed the incumbent, far-right congressman Steve King, with 47% support, and his Democratic challenger J.D. Scholten with 42%.The Times characterized this as a "slight edge" for King, with lots of room for error. "The margin of sampling error on the overall lead is 10 points, roughly twice as large as the margin for a single candidate's vote share," the Times explained on its website.Cohn's final pre-election story noted that "even modest late shifts among undecided voters or a slightly unexpected turnout could significantly affect results."That's the kind of language that lots of polling experts are incorporating into their stories and live shots, especially in the wake of the 2016 election."With polling, you never actually get to the truth," Cohn said. "You inch towards it, and you think you end up within plus or minus 5 points of it at the end."As Enten put it, "polls are tools," not meant to be perfect. But that message needs to be reinforced through the news media. 6753

The organization that manages presidential debates says there will be changes made “to ensure a more orderly discussion of the issues” at future debates this season.The Commission on Presidential Debates released a statement Wednesday following the first presidential debate held in Cleveland.The debate has been called “chaotic” and hard to follow. Trump’s frequent interruptions of the Democratic presidential nominee defined Tuesday night’s debate, with Biden frequently unable to complete a sentence.The commission makes it clear the debates are “for the benefit of the American electorate,” and they “will be carefully considering the changes that it will adopt and will announce those measures shortly.”Moderator Chris Wallace of Fox News pleaded with Trump several times to allow Biden to speak uninterrupted, to no avail.In their statement, the commission thanked Wallace, saying they are “grateful to Chris Wallace for the professionalism and skill he brought to last night’s debate.” 1001

The major boom of online grocery ordering shows no signs of slowing down. More than six months into the COVID-19 pandemic, industry experts say the new convenience of ordering groceries through an app is here to stay. "In fact, it's been a huge acceleration. All of our clients that we serve, and we serve some of the biggest supermarkets in North America and the world, they picked up three times the volume that they were doing before this pandemic. And, in fact, more of them didn’t picked up more volume because they couldn't just fulfill enough orders at a time," said Max Pedro, the co-founder and president of Takeoff Technologies. Takeoff Technologies creates automated grocery fulfillment software for some of the biggest grocery chains in the country, including Albertsons, Safeway and Shoprite. The technology requires supermarkets to build a 10,000-square-foot warehouse directly behind their store. When a shopper places an online grocery order at one of these stores, the robots fulfill the order, automatically placing the items in bags, ready for the customer."What happens is those robots bring those individual items to a human being, but those items are coming to a person. They're suddenly making people 13 times more productive than if they have to roam a supermarket aisle to assemble that order," said Pedro.The company has already hit their five-year goal in just four months. "And it’s happened really fast and what’s also happening is we know that consumers are not going back to their previous behaviors. We forcefully trained many, many people to buy their supermarket carts online and they're sticking to it," said Pedro.Laurentia Romaniuk, an Instacart Trends Expert, agrees. "We've seen customers continue to use our site. It seems like online grocery is really here to stay. It's interesting because online grocery has existed in other countries for decades and people have built habits around it in other countries and I think, finally, now America is getting on board with the online grocery trend," said Romaniuk.Instacart, which offers grocery delivery service for a fee from a number of grocery stores across the country, says use of their site went up exponentially at the start of the pandemic. Now that we're in the fall, parents and children are still working and taking classes from home and the need to get groceries delivered or gathered for them, is still there. "Yes, customers are going online and shopping online and becoming more comfortable with that, but also hobbies and habits and eating patterns are changing," said Romaniuk.Pedro says pre-pandemic, only 10% of the market was buying online. It's now grown to 27%. "Remind you that four years ago, the U.S. market was half-a-percent online. Grocery is a really rough category to offer online and still maintain those low prices. Now, with these capabilities and that further need of getting the convenience factor, things have just taken off," said Pedro. Pedro suspects the entire retail industry will soon start reinventing itself, developing technology to offer more delivery and pick-up options to better serve customers who no longer want to go shopping in person. 3181

The only thing that scares salon owner Shelly Albro more than the empty chairs inside her Portsmouth, New Hampshire barbershop is the silence that has consumed this place recently.Having lost 30 percent of her business because of COVID-19, Albro found herself in the same position as thousands of other small business owners across the country, desperate for new streams of revenue, while at the same time, having to keep her customers and staff safe.“I just knew that if I didn’t get creative we weren’t going to make any money,” she said. “Business was down.”Albro owns Gents Barbershop, which she recently opened.On a particularly depressing day during the shutdown, she had been searching through old photos when she stumbled upon an old black and white picture from the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic. A few barbers stood wearing masks as they cut clients' hair, but instead of cutting hair inside a building, the barbers were standing out on the sidewalk in front of their store.She had found her solution.“When I saw this picture I was like, ‘I gotta do this outside!’ For those who are like me who are nervous to go inside,” she said.Unsure of how the idea would go over with customers, Albro first started cutting hair outside on her days off. Her schedule quickly booked up, as this upbeat stylist with a slight New England accent realized she’d struck a chord with her customers who were still too nervous to get their haircut inside a barbershop during COVID-19.And for Albro, who suffers from an autoimmune disease herself, the whole thing is personal.“There are a lot of people who have anxiety about coming inside a building. It doesn’t matter how much we clean or sanitize; they’re feeling anxious about coming inside,” she said. “Because I’m high risk, I get why people are reluctant.”Gents Barbershop isn't alone in moving hair cutting services outside. Back in July, California moved all salons outdoors to deal with a sudden spike in cases.Beth Milito with the National Federation of Independent Businesses is telling small business owners to follow Albro’s lead.“It’s been much more challenging than people anticipated back in March,” Milito explained.As small business owners continue to navigate an economic recession, Milito says that creativity and ingenuity are keys to a successful rebound, especially when more than 100,000 small businesses have already closed since March.“Looking at this as a long-term investment, something you can see into the future,” she added.As for Albro, she knows that like a good haircut this trend may fade away, but for now, she’s just trying to make a much deeper impression.“I just want to help,” she said. 2669

The Oklahoma State Supreme Court will hear a lawsuit appeal to enforce safety measures at President Donald Trump's rally on Saturday.Tulsa attorney Clark Brewster will make a court appearance before the Oklahoma Supreme Court on Thursday by phone at 3 p.m., according to court records.Earlier this week, a judge denied a lawsuit from the Tulsa law firm to enforce masks and social distancing at President Trump's rally.Attorneys Brewster and Paul DeMuro filed the suit claiming the rally will endanger the public's health.They argued coronavirus cases in the city of Tulsa and the state of Oklahoma increased since June 1. Despite the increase, the Trump rally is bringing thousands of people into an indoor arena."All credible, qualified medical experts agree that this type of mass-gathering indoor event creates the greatest possible risk of community-wide viral transmission," said the law firm.The lawsuit aimed to enforce the use of face masks and social distancing for all guests and employees, abiding by the restrictions the State of Oklahoma has put in place.The "Make America Great Again" rally is planned for Saturday, June 20 at the BOK Center with overflow audiences going to the Cox Convention Center.The BOK Center released the following statement: 1272