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As the Summer of COVID draws to a close, many experts fear an even bleaker fall and suggest that American families should start planning for Thanksgiving by Zoom.Because of the many uncertainties, public health scientists say it’s easier to forecast the weather on Thanksgiving Day than to predict how the U.S. coronavirus crisis will play out this autumn. But school reopenings, holiday travel and more indoor activity because of colder weather could all separately increase transmission of the virus and combine in ways that could multiply the threat, they say.Here’s one way it could go: As more schools open for in-person instruction and more college students return to campuses, small clusters of cases could widen into outbreaks in late September. Public fatigue over mask rules and other restrictions could stymie efforts to slow these infections.A few weeks later, widening outbreaks could start to strain hospitals. If a bad flu season peaks in October, as happened in 2009, the pressure on the health care system could result in higher daily death tolls from the coronavirus. Dr. Robert Redfield, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, has said that scenario is his biggest fear.One certainty is that the virus will still be around, said Jarad Niemi, a disease-modeling expert at Iowa State University.“We will not have a vaccine yet and we will not have enough infected individuals for herd immunity to be helpful,” Niemi said.Fall may feel like a roller coaster of stop-and-start restrictions, as communities react to climbing hospital cases, said University of Texas disease modeler Lauren Ancel Meyers. Everyone should get a flu shot, she said, because if flu spreads widely, hospitals will begin to buckle and “that will compound the threat of COVID.”“The decisions we make today will fundamentally impact the safety and feasibility of what we can do next month and by Thanksgiving,” Meyers said.The virus is blamed for over 180,000 deaths and 6 million confirmed infections in the U.S. Worldwide, the death toll is put at almost 850,000, with over 25 million cases.The U.S. is recording on average about 900 deaths a day from COVID-19, and newly confirmed infections per day are running at about 42,000, down from their peak in mid-July, when cases were topping out at over 70,000.Around the country, a chicken processing plant in California will close this week for deep cleaning after nearly 400 workers got sick, including eight who died. And college campuses have been hit by outbreaks involving hundreds of students, blamed in some cases on too much partying. Schools including the University of North Carolina, Michigan State and Notre Dame have moved instruction online because of clusters on their campuses.Several vaccines are in advanced testing, and researchers hope to have results later this year. But even if a vaccine is declared safe and effective by year’s end, as some expect, there won’t be enough for everyone who wants it right away.Several companies are developing rapid, at-home tests, which conceivably could be used by families before a Thanksgiving gathering, but none has yet won approval.More than 90 million adults are over 65 or have health problems, putting them in higher danger of severe consequences if they get sick with the coronavirus. Many of them and their families are starting to decide whether to book holiday flights.Cassie Docking, 44, an urgent care nurse in Seattle, is telling her parents — both cancer survivors — that Thanksgiving will be by FaceTime only.“We all want to get to 2021,” she said, “and if that’s what it takes, that’s what we’ll do.”Caitlin Joyce’s family is forging ahead with a holiday feast. They plan to set up plywood tables on sawhorses in a large garage so they can sit 6 feet apart.“We’ll be in our coats and our sweaters,” said Joyce, 30, of Edmonds, Washington, who plans to travel to her grandparents’ home in Virginia. “It will be almost like camping.”One widely cited disease model projects 2,086 U.S. deaths per day by Thanksgiving, more than double compared with today.“In our family we will not have our extended family get-together. We will stick to the nuclear family,” said Dr. Christopher Murray of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, one of the few models making a prediction for November.Uncertainty is huge in Murray’s model: Daily deaths could be as low as 1,500 by Thanksgiving or as high as 3,100. In a more optimistic scenario, daily deaths could range from 510 to 1,200 if nearly everyone wears masks. A more pessimistic scenario? From 2,700 to 6,500 daily deaths if social distancing rules continue to be lifted and are not reimposed.With all the uncertainty, most disease modelers aren’t looking that far ahead — at least officially.Jeffrey Shaman, a public health expert at Columbia University, thinks the virus will spread more easily as the weather forces people indoors: “But what level of a bump? That’s hard to say.”At Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh, computer scientist Roni Rosenfeld’s team uses machine learning to project COVID-19 deaths. The team’s computer algorithm learns from patterns it finds in state and county data to improve its forecasts.A five-time winner of a CDC competition for predicting flu season activity, Rosenfeld thinks his model’s COVID-19 projections aren’t very useful beyond four weeks because of the wild card of human behavior, including that of government officials.“What happens very much depends on us,” he said. “People, myself included, don’t always behave rationally.” Presented with the same facts, “the same person might behave differently depending on how sick and tired they are of the situation.”Like other disease modelers, Rosenfeld said the virus will still be with us at Thanksgiving, readily spreading at family gatherings. While his plans may yet change, he said he is going to travel with his wife to visit their adult children. They will wear masks and keep a safe distance during the visit.___The Associated Press Health and Science Department receives support from the Howard Hughes Medical Institute’s Department of Science Education. The AP is solely responsible for all content. 6201

As schools start re-opening around the country, daycare and early childhood education centers are opening too.A question on the mind of parents is, "Should you send your toddler or preschooler back?"Like every other working mom, Danielle Green admits it's challenging. She basically has two jobs. Her career as a scientist, and her around-the-clock job of mom to 2-year-old Corey and 6-month-old Dylan keeps her busy.“Having children is a full-time job in itself so it turns more into a full-time job watching kids during the day and then doing the work during nap and evening,” Green said.It’s is not only exhausting, but she says, it's 100 percent, not realistic.“It adds a lot of stress for parents,” Green said. “For me, it added a lot of stress because we want to dedicate as much time as we can to our kids and so I took the path to dedicating everything to my kids and doing the work while the kids were sleeping.”So, when her daycare opened back up, Green and her husband talked and decided it was time.“There’s uncertainty in sending a child to daycare during a pandemic, but if we’re being realistic, eventually our kids are going to have to go back to school, so the question becomes at what point do we re-enroll them,” Green said.It's a topic that parents all around the country are discussing, because we all know it’s hard to do both. Parenting expert Gigi Schweikert said give up the dream of doing it all because no one can.“What I know as a working parent of four is that you can’t give your work 100% and you can’t give your children 100% so having your children in childcare gives them the opportunity to have the education socialization and guidance they need while you as a working parent can have that individualized concentrated time to give work your full attention,”Schweikert said.But to send your children back during a pandemic isn't easy. You have to do quite a bit of homework, make sure no one is allowed in the center aside from your child and staff members, and review all the protective measures for your county and state.Things like temperature checks, masks and face shields are being required at some daycares. Experts suggest inquiring about ventilation and cleanliness. And get parent referrals. A lot of them.“What really is important is trust. You’re going to need to check off all the boxes of making sure people are cleaning, making sure air is really good. Instinctually once you make that checklist, you have to say as a parent, 'Do I trust these people with my most important thing which is my child,'” Schweikert said.There are some things that might be missing because of COVID-19, like parent and teacher visits. Some facilities like Lightbridge Academy are now reliant on electronics and in-center cameras.Green said she's confident in her decision. Her boys are happy and healthy every day, and she feels confident that she's successfully managing her career.“It makes me feel good to know that the daycare is actually practicing the appropriate safety precautions and wearing the appropriate protective equipment, take temperatures it is an added measure,” Green said. 3130

As the debate about mask mandates continues in some states, a new study reportedly shows social distancing is just as important to reduce the spread of COVID-19. The study looked at the effectiveness of face coverings when someone coughs repeatedly, coughing is one of the symptoms of COVID-19.The study was published in a June issue of “Physics of Fluid”, by AIP Publishing, and was conducted by Talib Dbouk and Dimitris Drikakis from the University of Nicosia in Cyprus.The researchers used computer modeling to show the range of saliva droplets when people cough. Previous work from this group showed saliva can travel about 18 feet when a person coughs and is not wearing a mask or covering their mouth.This new study built on that research to add in the variables of face coverings and repeated coughing. They used information available about filters used in surgical masks. 887

As the FBI and US law enforcement agencies turn to the catching the serial mailbomber, or mailbombers, terrorizing those who have been labeled by President Donald Trump as political enemies, it's interesting to follow in their steps and examine what we know about the now 12 packages that have been intercepted.All those we have seen were all in manila envelopes, for instance, with the same return address. They all had six forever stamps, which was enough to get some to mail sorting facilities, but another needed more postage. They all had the same return address, with a misspelled name for Debbie Wasserman "Shultz," not Schultz, a Democratic congresswoman from Florida who is the former chairwoman of the Democratic National Committee.There are images of five of the packages, one of which -- one of the packages sent to Democratic Rep. Maxine Waters of California -- was shared by both DC Police and the FBI on social media.Related: The manhunt - FBI treating serial bomber as domestic terrorism  1017

As the holidays approach, many people are wondering how to safely celebrate. The CDC has urged Americans not to travel for Thanksgiving, and offering guidance for those who still want to go somewhere. Health officials weighed in on whether you need to quarantine before you visit family for the holidays."My own family, we usually have 100 relatives every year at Thanksgiving. Now, clearly, that’s not going to be happening this year. It’s going to be on Zoom for the big family, but I think there are ways that you can celebrate with your smaller family and get together safely, but it's going to take some work and some planning," said Dr. Tanya Altmann, a pediatrician and spokesperson for the American Academy of Pediatrics.Dr. Altmann says there are a number of steps people can take to protect themselves from getting COVID-19 this holiday season. Ideally, everyone would quarantine for two weeks before and after a get-together. Some families may think about switching their kids to remote learning if they are not already doing it."I don’t think its drastic. If you want to get together with elderly grandparents for Thanksgiving, I think keeping your kids home from school for a week and then testing them on day five to seven, assuming everybody is asymptomatic, can make a lot of sense. Again, I would still try to keep them a little distanced from the grandparents," said Dr. Altmann.But what if you can't switch your kids to remote learning? Dr. Altmann says then it won't be a true quarantine, but most schools that are in-person right now are doing everything right."They're masking, they’re distancing, they’re sanitizing and disinfecting, they’re hand washing. So, what we’re seeing is most kids are not catching COVID-19 in the school classroom during the school day, they're catching it at after-school activities, they're catching it on the weekends when they're gathering with friends or their families or doing things that maybe they shouldn’t necessarily be doing," said Dr. Altmann.So, how long should you quarantine last? For medical professionals, a quarantine usually refers to a person who's potentially been exposed but is not showing symptoms. It's a waiting period to help determine infection."I think really the best guidance is to wait that 14-day quarantine period to have some degree of confidence that you’re not going to become infected," said Dr. Beth Thielen, an Assistant Professor of Pediatrics at the University of Minnesota Medical School and an infectious disease physician. Dr. Thielen says, to be extra careful, you could also test yourself seven days into your two-week quarantine."A testing in between without symptoms is somewhat helpful because we also know there are a certain percentage of people who will develop asymptomatic infections and, in particular, this is probably important for children," said Dr. Thielen.However, testing rules and access varies in each state, so it's best to reach out to your local health official or doctor to find out about availability and turnaround times for results."So, I think for some, where now I'm hearing people are waiting days after a test, and so if you're planning to get tested before a trip and it's going to take four to five days to turnaround the test, that could be the entirety of your trip," said Dr. Thielen.Health officials advise erring on the side of caution, especially if you're planning on visiting elderly family members."I think the most important thing is to be really aware of that it's not just your family. 'Oh, we don't want to catch COVID, we might get sick' but that you could spread it to others who are even more vulnerable," said Dr. Altmann.Experts say to take the highest precautions to create the least amount of risk. 3756