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The roaring American economy will probably sink into a recession before President Trump stands for re-election in 2020.At least that's the view of Ray Dalio, the billionaire investor who predicted the 2008 financial crisis."The probability of a recession prior to the next presidential election would be relatively high, 70% or something like that," Dalio said on Wednesday evening during an appearance at the Harvard Kennedy School's Institute of Politics.  471

The turnaround at SeaWorld might be real.The theme park owner reported that visitors to SeaWorld grew 5 percent for the quarter, the second consecutive quarter that attendance rose.Sales and attendance figures topped forecasts, and shares surged more than 15 percent to a four-year high. Its stock is up more than 80 percent this year.SeaWorld has struggled since a documentary called "Blackfish" aired in theaters and on CNN in 2013. The film focused on an orca that had killed people, including a trainer, and suggested that the conditions in which it was confined at SeaWorld contributed to its violent behavior. The company has disputed certain points in the documentary.Interim CEO John Reilly said new rides, discounted prices for annual passes and a new marketing strategy that focuses on animal rescue efforts helped push the good results. Reilly took over from former CEO Joel Manby in February after Manby failed to stop a long slide in visitors."We are pleased with our strong second quarter financial results and the continued momentum we see in the business," Reilly said in a statement.The rise in visitors coincided with the start of the summer, when kids are off from school and families take vacations. Some analysts had dismissed a first quarter attendance surge because it came at a slow time for amusement parks.SeaWorld also owns the Busch Gardens and Sesame Place theme parks.But its SeaWorld parks draw the most scrutiny.In addition to the "Blackfish" documentary, the company has been targeted relentlessly by the animal rights group PETA.In an attempt to rehab its corporate image, SeaWorld announced in 2016 that it would stop breeding orcas in captivity and also end its orca shows at its San Diego theme park. They continue elsewhere.But PETA is not enamored of the changes.PETA owns a tiny stake -- 339 shares -- in SeaWorld, with the hopes that it can urge other investors to put more pressure on management for bigger changes."We find that many families who recently went to SeaWorld say they'll never go back after what they saw. Shareholders should be wary," PETA executive vice president Tracy Reiman said in a statement to CNNMoney."This summer's events show that although the marine park may have a few upward blips, it's on a downward trajectory that won't stop until the animals are out of the tanks and in coastal sanctuaries," Reiman added.While PETA may still not be satisfied with some of the changes, SeaWorld has put another problem behind it.The company said Monday that it had reached a settlement with the Securities and Exchange Commission over an investigation into certain "disclosures and public statements" made by SeaWorld.SeaWorld said it did not admit or deny any of the SEC's allegations and that it recorded a million charge in the quarter to settle the matter. 2834

The second night of the Republican National Convention was one that featured three Trumps not named Donald, and also had its share of controversy.Before Tuesday’s festivities commenced, the Republican Party booted Mary Ann Mendoza from its slate of speakers following an anti-Semitic remark on Twitter. The evening also included an address from current Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, who became the first active secretary of state in recent times to speak at a major political convention, prompting questions from Democrats whether the speech was a violation of government ethic rules.President’s family takes center stage at RNCTwo of President Donald Trump children, along with his wife Melania, were featured during Tuesday’s portion of the convention. Their speeches followed one given by Trump’s son Donald Trump Jr. on Monday.While generally the family of candidates avoid partisan attacks, Eric Trump went after after Joe Biden and the Democrats.“He is a career politician who has never signed the front of a check and does not know the slightest thing about the American worker or the American business,” Eric Trump said.Tiffany Trump, who graduated from law school earlier this year, related to those struggling to find work amid the coronavirus pandemic."Like so many students across the world, I graduated from law school during the pandemic,” Tiffany Trump said. “As a recent graduate, I can relate to so many of you who might be looking for a job. My father built a thriving economy once, and believe me... he will do it again."The evening concluded with remarks from First Lady Melania Trump, who spoke from the newly-remodeled White House Rose Garden.Melania Trump also acknowledged the impact the coronavirus has had on the US, which has claimed nearly 180,000 American lives, and the jobs of millions of Americans.“I want to acknowledge the fact that since March, our lives have changed drastically,” the first lady said. “The invisible enemy, COVID-19, swept across our beautiful country. And impacted all of us. My deepest sympathy goes out to everyone who has lost a loved one and my prayers are with those who are ill or suffering. I know many people are anxious and some feel helpless. I want you to know you are not alone."Unlike her stepson Eric, Melania said she would not attack Joe Biden.“I don't want to use this precious time attacking the other side, because, as we saw last week, that kind of talk only serves to divide the country further,” she said.Trump hosts citizenship ceremony at the White HouseIn an unusual sight that mixed politics and official business, the president hosted a citizenship ceremony for five permanent residents turned citizens.“Today America rejoices as we welcome five absolutely incredible new members into our great American family. You are now fellow citizens of the greatest nation on the face of God’s earth. Congratulations," Trump told the new US citizens.To Trump, the moment reflected an opportunity to promote legal immigration over those who come to the US illegally.“You followed the rules, you obeyed the laws, you learned your history, embraced our values, and proved yourselves to be men and women of the highest integrity,” Trump said. “It’s not so easy. You went through a lot, and we appreciate you being here with us today.”Anti-abortion speaker in Twitter spat during RNCAbby Johnson, a former employee of Planned Parenthood who spoke out against the organization, was in the midst of a Twitter war moments before she spoke during the RNC.Johnson said that she stood by comments she previously made that voting should only be open to the head of the household.In May, Johnson tweeted, "Then they would have to decide on one vote. In a Godly household, the husband would get the final say."“Yes. So shocking! A husband and wife who are in agreement and a wife who honors her husband as the head of the home. Gasp!! What a weird, biblical concept,” Johnson tweeted on Tuesday in response to the May tweets.Johnson later added, “I would never try to prevent women from voting.” 4062

The Trump administration announced Wednesday plans to remove 12,000 US troops from Germany with some being returned to the United States, and others being relocated to other NATO allies.The Department of Defense says that 5,600 troops will be repositioned to other NATO nations, while 6,400 will be returned to the US.Defense Secretary Mark Esper told CNN that the move to relocate troops will cost in the billions.President Donald Trump said the move was made because Germany is taking “advantage” of the US.“They are there to protect Europe and there to protect Germany and Germany is supposed to pay for it,” Trump said on Wednesday. “And we don't want to be -- the United States has been taken advantage of for 25 years with trade and on the military. It's very simple, they are delinquent. Very simple. And there are other NATO countries also, there are 28 countries “While there have been concerns that removing troops from the region diminishes the US presence in Europe in keeping Russia in check, Esper said that the move will enhance its deterrence against Russia.“The repositioning of our forces in Europe constitutes a major strategic and positive shift, wholly in line with the NDS, and consistent with other adjustments the United States has made within NATO in previous times,” Esper said. “These changes achieve the core principles of enhancing U.S. and NATO deterrence of Russia; strengthening NATO; reassuring Allies; and, improving U.S. strategic flexibility and EUCOM operational flexibility.”The reduced presence in Germany cuts the number of troops stationed there by one-third. 1608

The United States Supreme Court is expected to rule on several major cases next week impacting everything from abortion rights to the presidential election. Traditionally, the court issues all of it's rulings by the end of June to go on recess by early July. It's unclear this year however if the Supreme Court will extend its rulings if they are behind because of the pandemic. The Supreme Court said in advance what days justices will issue opinions, but would not announce which specific opinions will be announced on those days. Rulings typically come down around 10 a.m. ET.EXPECTED CASE #1 SEPARATION OF CHURCH AND STATE CHANGES?In Espinoza v. Montana Department of Revenue, the ruling could allow students in religious schools the ability to seek private scholarships funded through state income-tax credits. For years such programs were thought to be incompatible with Montana's constitutional ban on public aid to religious schools, however the Supreme Court could allow the program to exist. Because similar bans exist in 38 states, the ruling could change the definition of the separation of church and state. EXPECTED CASE #2CHANGE TO ABORTION RIGHTS?In June Medical Services LLC v. Russo, the ruling could impact the future of abortion rights across the country. The ruling examines whether a Louisiana law, which requires abortion providers to have admitting privileges in nearby hospitals, is constitutional. Abortion-rights activists say it will lead to clinics being shut down because most providers don't work with hospitals. More importantly, the ruling could tell anti-abortion leaders across the country that the High Court may be open to changes to Roe v Wade in the future. EXPECTED CASE #3ELECTORAL COLLEGE CONFUSION?In Colorado Department of State v. Baca, the ruling could result in major confusion in the 2020 election. The case is out of Colorado where in 2016, state electors to the electoral college attempted to vote for someone other than the winner of Colorado, Hillary Clinton. The electors were removed and replaced with someone to deliver the actual result, however it raised questions over how much power do these electors really have. EXPECTED CASE #4PRESIDENT TRUMP TAX RETURNS?In Trump v. Mazars USA, LLP and Trump v. Deutsche Bank, the question is whether the president has to comply with subpoenas for personal records. Does the power of the presidency allow President Donald Trump to say "no" when it comes to revealing his tax returns? If the Supreme Court rules against President Trump, it could create a new controversy for the President ahead of the election. 2615

来源：资阳报