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BOAO, Hainan, April 18 (Xinhua) -- Much has been talked about signs of recovery in Chinese economy, but little is certain about long-awaited rebound.     Discussing the latest development of Chinese economy at the Boao Forum for Asia (BFA), worldwide officials, business executives and professionals remained prudent about China's 8-percent gross domestic product (GDP) target in 2009, but mentioned some favorable changes in the country's economy.     Bob Hawke, former prime minister of Australia, forecast China's GDP growth between 7 percent to 8 percent. In the meantime, he believed a reversal had come.     "The four-trillion-yuan stimulus (package) is now beginning to work, and China's economy ... has reached the bottom and started to come up now," Hawke told Xinhua at the forum.     Increasing stress of sluggish exports, dampened employment and shrinking corporate profits have pulled down the Chinese economy to a growth of 6.8 percent in the fourth quarter last year.     A favorable trend might be forming in the first quarter of this year. Ding Lei, president of Shanghai General Motors Corporation Ltd., observed increasing domestic demand for motor vehicles.     "Our automobile exports remain low, but auto sales gained 12.9 percent in the first quarter compared with the fourth quarter last year," Ding said.     "China's policy package to boost automobile industry has effectively activated domestic market, and boosted the confidence of companies," Ding said.     John Cleland, chief executive officer of WestNet Infrastructure Group that has resources products trade with China, also noticed "some increase in demand".     "It's very hard to say, but there are signs of recovery of (China's demand for resources products)," he told Xinhua.     "Stockpiles of iron ore and steel in China have been reducing, so hopefully some projects that were put on hold have come back in the line," he said.     "China will come through (the crisis) quickly. Resource demand will recover. The demand for iron ore and basic commodities will recover quicker than consumer economies," he said.     Stable growth can also be expected in infrastructure. As China builds its nationwide mobile network, considerable and stable job opportunities can be created, said Per-Olof Bjork, general manager of Greater China Affairs of Ericsson Group Headquarters.     However, the changes are mainly felt in industries covered in the government's stimulus package, and China might need to go through a more painstaking path to ensure healthy and stable economic growth.     Chinese economy has shown more optimistic signals in the first quarter, but there are many uncertainties, said Chris Morley, managing director of Nielson China.     One uncertainty is the grim global economic climate. The U.S. and European economies are struggling in the crisis, which means China has to seek more internal growth to make up for the loss in exports.     The first quarter continued to see a slash in exports, which declined 19.7 percent year on year. Exports used to be one of three major sectors driving the Chinese economy, but it contributed negative 0.2 percent to the country's economic growth in the quarter.     Existing problems made it more difficult for Chinese economy to stay away from the impact of global crisis.     Yao Gang, vice chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, commented that China's economy is facing a key era that calls for upgrading in development pattern and adjustment of structure.     China's mission is not only to maintain stable economic growth, but also handle excess industrial production capacity, expand domestic consumption and reduce income gap, all of which demand sophisticated policies and persistent efforts from the government, Yao said at the BFA annual conference.     On April 15, China's Cabinet, the State Council, urged faster implementation of the two batches of government investment, and kicked off the third batch.     "Only approximately 30 percent of the scheduled investment has been injected into the Chinese economy," said Edgar Hotard, board chairman of Monitor Group (China). "If the rest 70 percent were also put into the economy, it would bring further growth."     Rolf D. Cremer, dean of China Europe International Business School, said China reacted more swiftly and decisively than expected, maintaining a relatively stable growth rate, which allowed more room for adjustment and reform.     Chinese economy was still on the growing path, with industrialization and urbanization acting as the two major growth engines, said Long Yongtu, secretary-general of the BFA.     "I have always believed that Chinese economy will stop its sliding trend in a comparatively short time and return on the track of stable and rapid development," he said.

BEIJING, March 26 (Xinhua) -- China's central bank governor has spoken highly of the government's rapid responses to the current global financial crisis, featuring decisively adopting a proactive fiscal policy and an adaptively easing monetary policy, and launching a bundle of timely, targeted and temporary policies and measures.     The prompt, decisive and effective policy measures adopted by the Chinese government demonstrates "its superior system advantage when it comes to making vital policy decisions," says Zhou Xiaochuan, president of the People's Bank of China (PBC), in an article entitled "Changing Pro-cyclicality for Financial and Economic Stability."     It is Zhou's third article published on the central bank's official website (WWW.PBC.GOV.CN) this week to discuss the issue of the current global financial crisis. His first and second articles, published on Monday and Tuesday, are entitled "Reform the International Monetary System" and "On Savings Ratio," respectively.     In the third article, the 61-year old central bank governor tries to find out the root causes for the current financial crisis, including but not limited to lessons on monetary policy, financial sector regulations, accounting rules.     The top Chinese banker says he wants to stimulate debate and discussions on some of the pro-cyclical features in the system, possible remedial measures, and how monetary and fiscal authorities can play their professional roles at times of severe market distress.     "Financial crises normally originate in the accumulation of bubbles and their subsequent bursts. Usually, economists pay a lot of attentions to pro-cyclicality on the macro level.     However, on the micro level, there are quite a number of notable pro-cyclical features embedded in the market structure today, which should be addressed as we deal with the current crisis and reform the financial system," he says.     Zhou suggests that in the current market structure, more counter-cyclical mechanisms or negative feedback loops on micro-level should be put in place to sustain a more stable financial system.     In the article, he notes that rating problems and herding phenomenon arise from outsourcing.     The global financial system relies heavily on the external credit ratings for investment decisions and risk management, giving rise to a prominent feature of pro-cyclicality, according to the central bank governor.     "Economic upswings produce euphoria and downturns generate pessimism," he says, "Many market players adopting ratings from the three agencies and using them as the yardstick for operations and internal performance assessments clearly result in a massive "herd behavior" at the institutional level."     Zhou points out that some market players seem to have forgotten that the ratings are no more than indicators of default probabilities based on past experiences but were never meant to be guarantees for the future, he says. "Once problems take place, as we have seen during the current crisis, fingers are pointed to the rating agencies," he says.     He suggests that financial institutions should try to rely more on internal rating in assessing risks.     He calls for giving full play to the professional role of authorities in maintaining overall financial stability and establishing a counter-cyclical mechanism for capital requirement     "To stabilize markets under severe stress, finance ministries and central banks need to act fast and apply extraordinary measures," he says, "Untimely or delayed response falls behind the curve and would make the outcome less than desired even if the response is correct and strong."     In modern Western societies, a prolonged political process for mandates to finance ministries or central banks often miss the best timing for action, Zhou says, adding, "We have observed such cases during the current crisis."     He suggests that governments and legislatures may consider giving pre-authorized mandates to ministries of finance and central banks to use extraordinary means to contain systemic risk under well-defined stress scenarios, in order to allow them to act boldly and expeditiously without having to go through a lengthy or even painful approval process.     "Such systematic pre-authorized mandates would put the specialized expertise of finance ministries and central banks to the best use when markets need it the most," he stresses.     The central bank governor attributes China's current success in easing the impacts of the crisis to the country's financial sector reform and ongoing macroeconomic stimulus measures     In 2003, fully aware of the systemic vulnerabilities of China's banking industry, the Chinese government made a courageous and strategic decision to restructure the four state-owned commercial banks, says Zhou, who took over as the PBC governor in late 2002.     In the article, Zhou gives a look back on the reforms of the country's major banks and security industry.     But he warns, "We should bear in mind that despite the notable achievements in banking reform, the major banks have not gone through a full business cycle and still have much to improve. An economic slowdown will be the ultimate stress test for the robustness of the banks' strengths."     According to the bank governor, irrespective of China's sound financial sector, the Chinese economy, especially the export sector, has felt the impact brought by the slowdown of the global economy.     He praises the Chinese government for its plans to stimulate domestic demand and promote stable and relatively rapid economic growth, including the extra investment of 4 trillion yuan (685 billion U.S. dollars) in over two years, the ten measures to revitalize the industrial sectors, and other bolster measures to increase money supply, promote employment, reform taxes and medical and healthcare system.     "Having taken the above-mentioned measures, China expect to maintain stable economic growth by boosting domestic demand and reducing dependence on external demand, thus serving as a stabilizing force in global economy," Zhou says.     In overall, the macroeconomic measures have produced preliminary result and some leading indicators are pointing to recovery of economic growth, indicating that rapid decline in growth has been curbed, he concludes.

HONG KONG, March 14 (Xinhua) -- China may get a more level playing field in terms of self-positioning when dealing with the United States amid the economic downturn, but Chinese leaders should beware of the potential traps behind U.S. flattering, scholars and senior editors said Friday.     Speaking at a Financial Times forum on Sino-U.S. relations in Hong Kong, the scholars said they expected the bilateral relationship to remain generally healthy in years ahead as both sides want stability and were pragmatic.     China is currently preoccupied with tackling the challenges facing itself, such as the need to further restructure the economy, finding an alternative development model to the export-driven growth of the past decades, and even the pressure of social instability.     The decisions made by Chinese leaders in dealing with the current crisis "will set the way for the long-term reinvention of the Chinese economy," said Jonathan Fenby, author of A History of Modern China published by Penguin.     China will emerge stronger if it can deal with the issues rightly, he said.     Lifen Zhang, editor-in-chief of FTChinese.com, said China does not have the strength to be the economic savior amid the current crisis and should handle self-positioning carefully when dealing with the United States.     "There is a lot of flattering going on at the moment, but be careful. What do the Americans really want?" he said, adding that a number of scholars have recently written on the topic.     On the top of the U.S. agenda was currently the need to restore confidence and integrity in the world's most developed economic system, which calls for cooperation from China, the world's fastest growing developing economy, said Simon Schama, professor of history at the University of Columbia.     But Schama said China should bear in mind that the next election in the United States will be in 2010 and avoid overplaying the leverage in its hand.     "What the Chinese government ought to be aware of is not so to overplay in its hands this leverage as to encourage a .. backlash" as the conservatives may seize certain popular issues, including trying to present an image of the Obama administration as being too soft, he said.

WASHINGTON, March 19 (Xinhua) -- The United States and China on Thursday agreed to continue to use and further develop those regular exchange mechanisms established before to facilitate parliamentary exchanges between the two countries.     The consensus was reached during a meeting between Speaker Nancy Pelosi of the U.S. House of Representatives and a delegation of China's National People's Congress (NPC), headed by Chairman Li Zhaoxing of the NPC Foreign Affairs Committee.     Both sides spoke positively of the important roles that the Congress and NPC have played in the growth of China-U.S. relationship through inter-parliamentary exchanges and cooperation.     The two sides also exchanged views over issues of common concern such as energy and climate change.

BEIJING, April 13 (Xinhua) -- House prices in 70 major Chinese cities fell 1.3 percent in March from a year earlier, the National Bureau of Statistics said Monday.     The month-on-month figure, however, rose 0.2 percent in March.     In the first quarter, the area of commercial houses sold rose 8.2 percent to 113 million square meters and sales jumped 23.1 percent to 505.9 billion yuan (74 billion U.S. dollars), the NBS said.     Prices of new houses fell 1.9 percent year-on-year last month but rose 0.1 percent from February. Prices for second-hand houses rose 0.3 percent month-on-month despite of a decline of 0.4 percent from a year earlier.     Analysts warned it was still too early to say the property market had revived, as sales were mainly driven by surging credit and by stimulus policies, such as tax cuts. Other indicators, such as land purchases by developers, had shown no signs of recovery.     Floor areas of newly built houses in the first quarter tumbled 16.2 percent to 201 million sq m. The decline was 1.4 percentage points more than the January-February figure.     Land purchased for homebuilding fell more than 40 percent in the first quarter to 47.42 million sq m, and the actual area developed shrank 11.3 percent to 52.2 million sq m.     China Vanke, the country's biggest property developer by market value, reported on April 11 its first-quarter sales rose 21 percent to 12.22 billion yuan. Those of Poly Real Estate Group, the second-biggest, doubled to 6.48 billion yuan.