成都细胞超微立体结构模型(四川超声诊断虚拟教学系统) (今日更新中)

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) — The latest ABC News national polling average shows former Vice President Joe Biden leading President Donald Trump by 8 points.But a lot of people are wondering, can we trust the polls after what happened in 2016?The last time Donald Trump was on the ballot in 2016, the polls had him trailing former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton by an average of 3.2 percentage points, and we know what happened.However, pollsters weren’t off by as much as you might think.“At the national level, the polling was, remarkably, given all things, precise,” said Jay Leve, CEO of the polling firm SurveyUSA.Trump lost the popular vote by 2.1 points instead of 3.2, the most accurate these national polls had been in 80 years, according to an analysis by the American Association for Public Opinion Research.Where the polls did miss badly was at the state level, particularly in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, three states that were critical in the Electoral College.Leve said there were several reasons for the polling problems at the state level.“Polling is a very expensive undertaking and so it is not possible for the handful of media organizations with pockets deep enough to afford a public opinion poll to be able to poll in every critical battleground state,” he said.Another reason? “Some of it has to do with what’s called ‘weighting,’” he added.To understand weighting, you have to know the two R’s of a good poll: it needs to be representative and random.Random samples are critical to the accuracy of polling, and you can look to your kitchen for an example why. Picture adding salt to a soup. If you mix it right, you can check the taste with any one spoonful -- you don’t have to eat the entire pot. That’s because each spoonful is a truly random sample.If you don’t mix the salt in, you could easily wind up sampling a part of the soup without any salt.When you’re trying to sample the American public with a political poll, either over the phone or most of the time now online, it’s more challenging to get a perfectly random spoonful.“The challenge is to find the individuals in the right numbers and secure their cooperation. Those two things don’t automatically work in sync,” Leve said. “People don’t want to be disturbed. They want privacy and a pollster by definition is an interruption.”It turns out, certain people tend to resist taking polls, while others are more willing. Research shows people with college degrees are more likely to respond to surveys than high school grads.That means surveys run the risk of not being representative of the voter population at large, and Leve said that kind of imbalance played a big role in 2016.To make a sample representative, pollsters gather up as many responses as they can, then adjust them with a process called weighting -- basically boosting or shrinking responses from people with certain demographics to match census data and the expected turnout.“The weighting criteria that was in issue in 2016 was whether you had enough non-college educated white voters in your sample,” Leve said. “If you did, you got the Trump forecast correct.”State polls that didn’t weight by education level missed badly, because to an extent far greater than in previous elections, voters with a college education broke for Clinton while voters with a high school education backed Trump.There’s some evidence that pollsters have learned from their 2016 mistakes. Polling in the 2018 midterms was very accurate -- a full point better than the average over the last 20 years.So can we trust the polls this time around?Leve says yes, as long as you remember that polls are just a snapshot in time and Donald Trump is difficult to predict.“Don’t be surprised if something happens in the final four, five, six days of the election, right before November 3rd, that’s so unforeseeable that neither you nor I nor anyone watching us could have imagined. And if so, that’s going to throw all the polls off,” he said. 3979

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) -- The cost of living in San Diego has become more burdensome over the last year, according to a new report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The bureau says that while prices fell 0.3 percent between May and July of this year, prices for consumer goods have risen 1.4 percent over the last 12 months. The cost of housing is up more than three percent since this time last year while food prices rose by a little more than one percent. Nationally, prices for consumer goods are up nearly 2 percent year-over-year. Also year-over-year, the price for fuel and utilities has risen by more than 6 percent, according to the bureau. 656

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) -- The city is backing state legislation that would change when police can use lethal force. The bill would authorize officers to use deadly force only when it is necessary to prevent imminent and serious bodily injury or death. Currently, police can shoot to kill when an objectively reasonable officer would do the same.Democratic Assemblywoman Shirley Weber, who represents the South Bay, co-authored the legislation."The current standard hits communities of color especially hard," she said. "Young black men are 20 times as likely to be killed by police as their white peers." More than 100 people spoke in favor of the bill Tuesday as dozens of officers looked on.San Diego Police Chief David Nisleit called the bill well-intentioned but based on flawed data. He noted while officers killed 172 people in 2017 and only half had guns, more than 90 percent had other potentially lethal weapons. "Officers must make the best call they can with the information available to them at a critical time, and sometimes factors like human limitations in processing information will cause them to make decisions that turn out to be wrong," he said. The bill's now in the assembly.The council voted 6-2, with Scott Sherman and Mark Kersey opposed. Councilman Chris Cate abstained. 1299

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) -- The mayor of Temecula has announced his resignation after facing raging criticism over an email stating he didn't “believe there’s ever been a good person of color killed by a police officer." James "Stew" Stewart's comments went viral June 2 and drew a firestorm of calls for his resignation and threats of protests. Stewart made the racist remark in a reply to a constituent "concerned about our police officers and their sensitivity training.""As you know the City of Temecula does not have its own Police Department," Stewart said in his email. "We contract with Riverside County Sheriff's Department.""And I don't believe there's ever been a good person of color killed by a police officer," said Stewart.Stewart posted a copy of the email on his own Facebook page explaining that he is dyslexic and uses voice text, and that he published the note without proofreading what was recorded."I may not be the best writer and I sometimes misspeak, but I am not racist. I deeply regret this mistake and I own it, entirely. I am truly sorry," Stewart said in his resignation letter posted on Facebook late Thursday night.Stewart's comments brought tension to the small tourist destination city during a time in which the nation is seeing daily demonstrations and protests against police killings and racism. A Change.Org petition has started circulating demanding that city officials acknowledge that "systemic racism and police brutality exist in Temecula and the need for reform and consequence."Temecula, a city of about 115,000 residents in Riverside County, is located about 85 miles north of San Diego. The area is a popular Southern California destination known for its dozens of wineries, hot air balloon rides, and festivals similar to Northern California's wine country.Stewart's biography remains published on the city's website. It says that Stewart moved to Temecula in 1991 with his wife and three children from Oswego, Illinois. According to his page, the businessman owns eight barbershops in the area and that he has worked as a dentist during mission trips to Haiti pulling teeth and conducting eye glass clinics in Ethiopia.The city has not released plans to fill his vacant seat. He was elected to a four-year term in 2016.Here is Stewart's resignation announcement:Temecula StewCity of Temecula, I hear you, I agree with you, and I am deeply sorry. I owe everyone an apology including our citizens of all backgrounds and ethnicities, City staff, and my respected colleagues on the City Council. You have every right to be hurt and offended. My typos and off-the-cuff response to an email on a serious topic added pain at a time where our community, and our country, is suffering. I may not be the best writer and I sometimes misspeak, but I am not racist. I deeply regret this mistake and I own it, entirely. I am truly sorry.I understand that even my sincerest apologies cannot remedy this situation. Because actions speak louder than words, I will step down as your Mayor and City Council Member effective immediately. It has been a true honor to serve this great City and its citizens. My love for Temecula and its residents is beyond expression.”Mayor Pro Tem Maryann Edwards states, “Stew is a hard-working and honest man, and the City accepts his resignation. Temecula is poised to close this chapter, and continue our long-term commitment to preventing racial injustice in any form. On this day of Mr. George Floyd’s memorial service, and on behalf of my council colleagues, the City of Temecula offers our prayers and heartfelt condolences to his family.” 3623

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) - Students said they've seen a steady decline at San Diego State University tailgates over the past three years.At their Homecoming tailgate Saturday some students were nervous to celebrate after learning a Freshman was gravely injured after a night of drinking."We definitely want to respect the family and respect the kid, and everyone who has been impacted by this because obviously this is something super severe," SDSU Senior Emma Marchant said.The parking lot was dotted with tailgaters, consisting mostly of alumni, a vast difference compared to the throngs of partiers in September 2018's home opener."Freshman year this whole area would just be covered with people and now it's kinda just us," Marchant said."Mainly undergraduates haven't been here," UCSD Alumna Teigan MacDonald said. Her sister is involved in Greek life at SDSU.A moratorium was announced October of 2018, requiring any group of 25 or more students to register and agree to a list of rules.SDSU President Adela de la Torre suspended Interfraternity Council (IFC) activities citing the "severity of the incident" following the alleged fraternity event Wednesday night, a statement from the school read."Given the severity of this incident, and as the safety and wellbeing of students is a primary concern of the university, SDSU President Adela de la Torre has suspended the Interfraternity Council (IFC) and all chapter organizations under the council," an SDSU media relations officer said Friday."I think a lot of people are shocked, I understand why the university is doing it because we have people's kids' health at stake," MacDonald said.The University working to balance social life with safety."I think education and awareness is a huge step. i don't think punishing people and just suspending will do it because they've suspended again and again and this situation keeps happening again and again," MacDonald said."I hope there are measures taken that are intended to protect students but still allow them to be out here you know which is kind of a hard line to walk," Marchant said. 2095

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