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The roaring American economy will probably sink into a recession before President Trump stands for re-election in 2020.At least that's the view of Ray Dalio, the billionaire investor who predicted the 2008 financial crisis."The probability of a recession prior to the next presidential election would be relatively high, 70% or something like that," Dalio said on Wednesday evening during an appearance at the Harvard Kennedy School's Institute of Politics.  471

The skies started darkening over Lake Charles, Louisiana, on Wednesday, as Hurricane Laura trekked toward the state.People planning to hunker down at home raced to a local home supply store.“My wife didn't want to travel this time,” said resident Robert Deboest. “So, we decided to go head on and kind of stick it out.”That includes Adam Johnson, who was busy buying plywood to cover the windows of his home.“It was like a sheet,” he said.Johnson moved to the Lake Charles area several years ago from Colorado. Laura will be the first hurricane he experiences.“[The] duplex I live in was built in 2015, so it should be pretty secure,” Johnson said.Others, though, feel far less secure.“I was going to stay because I didn’t have nowhere to go,” said resident Yvonne Lancto.However, local officials made arrangements at the Burton Coliseum Complex in Lake Charles for anyone wanting to evacuate, with the National Guard and dozens of buses ready to carry evacuees out of the danger zone and to shelter.Just a few days before her 77th birthday, Lancto chose to flee the storm.“I feel more safer now (sic),” she said, shortly before boarding a bus, “Because I was gonna have to drive - I was scared.”What is scaring a lot of people in Lake Charles is not just the potential for Category 4 winds from Hurricane Laura, but massive storm surge, especially along the coast – which can easily swamp the first floor of a building.Paul and Wanda Bertrand said that is why they are getting out of their home in coastal Cameron Parish.“I’m ready to get back you know,” Paul Bertrand said. “I just left and I’m ready to get back already.”His wife, Wanda, said their lives were far more important and hopes that evacuating will only be temporary.“Hopefully, this will be over soon,” she said, “and we can get back home and everything will be like it was normal.”It’s a normalcy that Hurricane Laura will put to the test. 1917

The White House on Monday blamed Hamas for the deaths of 52 Palestinians who were killed by Israeli security forces during mass protests in Gaza on Monday."The responsibility for these tragic deaths rests squarely with Hamas," White House deputy press secretary Raj Shah said. "Hamas is intentionally and cynically provoking this response and as the secretary of state (Mike Pompeo) said, Israel has a right to defend itself."Pressed repeatedly on whether Israel bears any responsibility and asked whether Israel should show more restraint, Shah again pointed the finger at Hamas -- seemingly absolving Israel of responsibility."We believe that Hamas is responsible for these tragic deaths," Shah said, adding that the terrorist group bears "responsibility for the entire situation right now."The 52 deaths on Monday came on the 70th anniversary of Israel's independence while a delegation of US officials joined Israeli leaders to mark the opening of the new US embassy in Jerusalem. Trump's decision to recognize Jerusalem as Israel's capital and move the US embassy to the city in December has ratcheted up tensions in the region, where Israelis and Palestinians have competing claims to the holy city. The city is home to holy sites from three major religions: Christianity, Judaism and Islam.Israeli forces used lethal and nonlethal means on Monday in an attempt to disperse mass protests that took place at the security fence between Gaza and Israel, which included some Palestinians attempting to cross into Israel.Tuesday marks the "Nabka," or Catastrophe, which remembers the 700,000 Palestinians who were driven from, or left, their homes during the Arab-Israeli war that came with the creation of the Israeli state. 1734

The United States is demanding that all United Nations sanctions be reimposed against Iran, a move that follows America’s embarrassing defeat to extend an arms embargo against Tehran. President Donald Trump says Secretary of State Mike Pompeo will travel to New York on Thursday to notify the Security Council president that the U.S. is invoking the so-called “snapback” mechanism in the council’s resolution that endorsed the 2015 Iran nuclear deal. Other nations claim the U.S. has no standing to make the move because the Trump administration pulled the U.S. out of the Iran nuclear deal two years ago."Today, I am directing the Secretary of State Mike Pompeo to notify the UN Security Council that the United States intends to restore virtually all of the previously suspended United Nations sanctions on Iran," Trump said. 836

The University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation has been issuing frequent projections since March in an attempt to model the spread and impact of the coronavirus across the world.The models have been used by the CDC and White House coronavirus task force in an effort to better understand the potential number of deaths the coronavirus could cause.On Friday, the model added a new variable, one that could cause a steep decline of coronavirus deaths throughout the US. The IHME’s newest model, which predicts the number of coronavirus deaths in the US through the end of March, is now weighing the potential impact of vaccines on the virus.For those hoping for an immediate drop in hospitalizations and deaths caused by the coronavirus as soon as vaccinations begin later this month might be disappointed. The IHME's model shows the initial batch of vaccinations will have a relatively muted effect on deaths and hospitalizations initially. While by April 1, much of the general US population will likely not be fully vaccinated, many in the high-risk category should expect to vaccinated by then. How fast they get vaccinated will play a role in determining the number of coronavirus deaths in the US.As of Friday evening, there have been over 278,000 coronavirus-related deaths reported throughout the US, per Johns Hopkins University data. Without any vaccines reaching Americans, the IHME’s model projects a total of 548,000 would die from the coronavirus through April 1, meaning 270,000 deaths between now and then.If COVID-19 vaccines are distributed at expected levels, 9,000 lives would be saved by April 1, reducing the number of deaths between now and then to 261,000. But a rapid vaccine rollout – one that would vaccinate the high-risk population and begin to vaccinate the general population by the spring -- would result in 250,000 deaths between now and April 1.“Mass scale-up of vaccination in 2021 means we have a path back to normal life, but there are still a few rough months ahead,” said Dr. Christopher Murray, IHME director. “We must be vigilant in protecting ourselves at least through April, when, as our projections indicate, vaccines will begin to have an impact.”In the meantime, Murray says universal mask wearing and social distancing will save more lives than a potential vaccine in the next four months.“Especially in the Northern Hemisphere, it’s crucial for governments to impose or re-impose mandates that limit gatherings and require masks. Where the winter surge is driving spikes in infections, there will be many people who can still become infected and possibly die before the vaccine is fully rolled out,” said Murray.To see the IHME’s state-by-state projections for deaths, hospitalizations and cases, clickhere. 2790