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SAN DIEGO (KGTV) -- Economic forecasters are beginning to warn of a possible 2020 recession, and the impact they say will be felt in the Golden State, according to a new report by UCLA.“Don’t celebrate the 3.1% GDP growth estimate for the first quarter of 2019,” writes UCLA Anderson Professor Emeritus Edward Leamer. Leamer is quoted in a recent report produced by the UCLA Anderson School of Management. According to Leamer, the data actually increases the risk of a recession at some point in the next couple of years. Nationally, economic growth is expected to slow marginally to 2.1 percent in the fourth quarter of 2019 and 1.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2020. RELATED: Fed cuts interest rates for the first time since recessionThe good news is that the report predicts an economic rebound, growing again to 2.1 percent in the fourth quarter of 2021. So what picture does the report paint for California? One forecaster says you can expect California unemployment to rise modestly. “Weakness in housing as well as the slowing U.S. economy is reflected in a very modest growth rate in the U.S. in late 2020,” UCLA Anderson Forecast director Jerry Nickelsburg writes. “As a consequence, we expect California’s average unemployment rate to rise slightly to an average of 4.6% in the first quarter of 2021. For the entire year for 2020 and 2021, we expect average unemployment rates of 4.3% and 4.4%, respectively.”Meanwhile, personal income growth in the state of California is forecast at 2.9 percent in 2019. But the report warns that income growth is expected to slow to 1.9 percent by 2020.It’s not all bad news, however, income growth is expected to rise fairly quickly again in 2021, and is forecast to reach 2.1 percent by the end of the year. There's more good news. The Federal Reserve Wednesday lowered interest rates for the first time since the Great Recession in 2008 to help prevent an economic downturn. 1936

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) — Education experts say it’s a reality we need to accept: distance learning will not be as academically successful for many students as classroom-based learning, particularly for disadvantaged students.Governor Gavin Newsom’s announcement Friday that school reopenings will be directly tied to pandemic data means both public and private schools throughout San Diego County will most likely start fall classes virtually.Three experts told ABC 10News that virtual learning will likely be the hardest on young students who require the most adult direction.“Early grade elementary family environments right now, they’re probably the most challenged and in need of the most amount of help,” said Dr. James Rivet, an educational consultant at SD Kids First.Younger elementary school students require more focus and attention from a parent, who may be distracted by other responsibilities like a full-time job, according to Dr. Deborah Pontillo, a pediatric psychologist and the owner of SD Kids First.With young learners, “their independence isn't really developed. Their motivation to learn isn't necessarily there,” Pontillo said. 1152

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) - From a small chicken stand, Charlie Boghosian built an annual tradition.Every year, San Diegans and tourists visit the Del Mar Fairgrounds to see what Boghosian has delivered. Is it fried [insert food here]? Almost guaranteed."Chicken" Charlie started working at the Del Mar Fairgrounds when he was 14-years-old. But his love for cooking began far sooner.SAN DIEGO FAIR COVERAGE: 416

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) -- Firefighters have extinguished the fire that caused a hotel near Harbor Island Park to be evacuated Wednesday afternoon. Firefighters say the two-alarm fire broke out at the Sheraton on the 1300 block of Harbor Island Drive. No one was injured, but the fire, which took place in the hotel's elevator shaft, caused at least 0,000 in damage. Firefighters were alerted to the fire after they say people reported heavy smoke coming from the elevator shaft.At this time, the cause of the fire is unknown.  551

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) — During a closed session meeting on Friday, the county Board of Supervisors voted to appeal a recent court's decision to allow strip clubs and restaurants to reopen amid California's regional stay-at-home order.While the board voted to appeal the ruling, Chairman Greg Cox said they have directed the county's legal counsel to only argue against the operation of strip clubs and allowing indoor dining despite California's coronavirus restrictions."The Board voted to appeal the order. But the Board directed County Counsel to only argue that the order is incorrect as it relates to the continued operation of strip clubs and the allowance of indoor dining. We support outdoor dining with appropriate safety protocols that have been previously established. We remind everyone that the virus is still out there. Please continue to cover your face, wash your hands and avoid gatherings," Cox said in a statement.Lawyers from the state joined in the county's appeal, arguing the ruling overreaches, as no restaurants were parties in the suit.It's unclear when a ruling on the appeal could be given.RELATED COVERAGE:Not all San Diego restaurants will reopen, despite court orderSan Diego restaurants ready to reopen for indoor and outdoor dining after judge's rulingThis week, a judge ruled in favor of Pacers Showgirls and Cheetahs Gentleman's Club, which were forced to close in October due to coronavirus restrictions. The ruling was in response to a preliminary injunction granted to the clubs in November that protected them from some enforcement.San Diego Superior Court Judge Joel R. Wohlfeil ruled that the adult entertainment businesses and "San Diego County businesses with restaurant service" cannot get a cease-and-desist order."The court’s intention is that all businesses which provide restaurant service — meaning all restaurants in the County of San Diego — are encompassed in the scope of the court’s order. It’s not limited to plaintiffs who also provide restaurant service, but it is intended to encompass all restaurants within the County of San Diego,” said Judge Wohlfeil.RELATED COVERAGE:Judge's ruling on strip clubs includes all San Diego County restaurantsSan Diego brewery among beer makers suing Gov. Newsom over tasting room proceduresThis prompted the county to halt enforcement against restaurants that didn't only offer takeout and delivery, as required under California's regional stay-at-home order. Many local restaurants reopened for some form of in-person dining after the ruling.Supervisor Nathan Fletcher said in a statement on Friday that he "vehemently" disagrees with the court's ruling."Given the massive rise in COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations, we must make difficult decisions to slow the spread of the virus. I vehemently disagree with the recent judicial decision allowing strip clubs and all restaurant activities to resume and I support appealing the entirety of the recent court ruling. It is a positive step that our board voted unanimously to join the state in the appeal as it relates to strip clubs and indoor dining," Fletcher said. California's regional stay-at-home order went into effect after the Southern California region, which includes San Diego County, saw its ICU capacity dip under 15%. Friday, the region's capacity sat at 0%. 3319

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