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When experts look at the economy and its rebound, they go through an alphabet soup of letters, with a “V” shape recovery being the best-case scenario. It’s a fast decline with a fast recovery. Letters like “W” or “L” mean a much slower and painful path forward.A resurgence of more COVID-19 cases is shifting the likely shape of our economic recovery, and having economists evaluate the likelihood of a recovery in the shape of the more dreaded letters.“The fact that the virus has increased in a number of states shows that it is still very much a threat not only to one’s health but the economy,” said Michelle Meyer, who heads U.S. Economics at Bank of America. “The initial stage of the recovery was quite robust. It felt quite ‘V’ like, the economy was digging its way out of what was a very deep hole.”According to Bank of America, about a third of the jobs lost during the pandemic have been recovered. However, the recovery has slowed down into more of a “U” shape, and now data is showing a stall with concern of a higher chance of a “W” or “L” shape recovery.“The ‘W’ trajectory would be the worst-case scenario. That would show real fragility on the economy if we dipped back into a recession,” added Meyer.Experts say it would lead even higher unemployment, and more permanent job loss and business closures. In addition, to come out of a “W” or “L” shape recovery, we would need even more stimulus money from the federal government, which may not even improve the economic downturn as much as it did the first time.“Stimulus in Washington provides a really nice band-aid and I think it helped tremendously in the first stage of this recovery but at the end of the day, we need the economy to fundamentally improve,” said Meyer.The good news is unless there is a significant or full shutdown again, a “W” shape recovery is still less likely to occur than a “U” shape.“Our analysis projects that a 'U' shape recovery with rather steep losses and growth this year and rather flat next year and then recovering subsequently is the most likely outcome,” said David Turkington, the Senior Vice President at State Street Associates.A recent State Street study based on 100 years of historical data shows that the U.S. still has 30.1% chance of a “U” recovery, and a combined 24.4% chance of a “W” or “L” shape recovery which include stagflation and depression outcomes.“The real economy I think is what determines the recovery and how that plays forward,” said Turkington.The real economy is jobs, businesses and consumer spending. Providing stability there could determine which way the economy goes. 2615

White House chief of staff John Kelly personally denied calling President Donald Trump an "idiot" in an afternoon conversation with the commander in chief, relaying nearly the same statement in his face-to-face talk with the President as the one he released publicly, according to an administration official.An NBC report published Monday claimed, among other things, that Kelly had said during an immigration-related meeting that he needed to "save (Trump) from himself" while insulting the President's intelligence by calling him an "idiot.""I spend more time with the President than anyone else and we have an incredibly candid and strong relationship. He always knows where I stand and he and I both know this story is total BS," Kelly said in a statement. "I am committed to the President, his agenda, and our country. This is another pathetic attempt to smear people close to President Trump and distract from the administration's many successes."The situation is similar to when reports surfaced that then-Secretary of State Rex Tillerson called Trump a "moron."But the White House official pointed out a big difference between the Kelly incident and Tillerson -- Kelly immediately denied the report and denounced it to the President's face. Tillerson declined to do so, simply saying he wouldn't play that Washington game. 1348

When you're facing a medical emergency, you trust your life to the doctors at in the emergency room. Those doctors sometimes have just seconds to make life or death decisions. Four in Your Corner is giving you an inside look as to what it's like to be an ER doctor."I love the pace of things and it takes a certain person to be an ER doctor," Dr. Keith Burley, who works in Cape Coral Hospital's emergency room, said/ "Emergency medicine is a true team sport. It takes the whole department to really resuscitate someone who is very sick.""Say someone comes in in cardiac arrest. They come in right through our trauma bay doors. They're dropped into one of our resuscitation rooms. Our team organizes very quickly. Everyone knows their jobs," Dr. Burley said.\In cases like this, techs will be running IVs; nurses will be hooking up defibrillation pads. Pharmacists will be running drugs. Staff will be trying to find out a patient's name. Dr. Burley said it's all about balancing quickness with efficiency while making sure patients are safe during triage."It's very important we triage effectively, making sure we point out and pick up the really sick people early on so we dedicate most of our resources to those sick people," Dr. Burley said. "We do need to triage because we have limited resources we need to effectively implement."Dr. Burley said when he sees a patient, he's trained to think worst case-scenario first."So someone coming in with a headache, we think, could this be a stroke? Could this be a subarachnoid hemorrhage? Could this be something else going on? Before we think it's just a headache," he said.Dr. Burley has known he's wanted to be a doctor since he was four years old after he was in a life-changing, dangerous situation."Like a good Canadian, I was tobogganing down a hill. We were going down the hill and my brother bailed. We continued to go down the hill and I hit a tree with my head," he said.He had a fractured skull and lost hearing in his left ear."I was seen by ER doctors, trauma doctors, a pediatric neurologist, had multiple MRIs," he said. "From that point on, as a young child, I always wanted to be a doctor."He said one of his most bizarre cases was just hours before Hurricane Irma hit. A dog was brought into the ER with it's eye hanging out."I'm not a veterinarian and I don't pretend to be one. I have a dog but it's a little out of my realm," Dr. Burley said. "We placed a pressured dressing and one of the staff members was able to call around to get a vet to see that dog just before the storm."For that dog and family, it was a happy ending, but Dr. Burley said the hardest part about emergency medicine are the days he deals with death and dying."It takes a certain person to deal with death and dying every day and then come back. It's a resiliency characteristic that all the ER staff have," Dr. Burley said.Whether their patients survive or not, the doctors have to learn to compartmentalize -- going from patient to patient until the end of their eight to 10 hour shift."We'll see a pediatric drowning, and then the next case we'll see someone with an eyeball injury, or someone with a simple laceration, and we have to give that patient the same amount of attention we gave the other patient and reset," he said."It's a privilege to be in a discipline where you get to see someone on their worst day of their entire life, and if you can make that a little better, you've done your job," he said.Dr. Burley said to unwind, he spends a lot of time at the beach and kite surfing. 3562

Will you accept President-elect Biden's offer to serve as his chief medical adviser? -@SavannahGuthrieAbsolutely, I said yes right on the spot. -Dr. Anthony Fauci pic.twitter.com/lHr3z1v3vo— TODAY (@TODAYshow) December 4, 2020 234

While balancing parenthood alone during a pandemic can challenging, adding eviction to the equation can be heartbreaking.“My heart dropped for the simple fact that I was homeless before with my four kids,” Mary Ratchford-Bass said after losing her job as an office cleaner.“Once the pandemic hit, they went to working from home and that left us with little to no work to do,” she said.Just a few days before being forced out of her apartment, Ratchford-Bass, who was born into a Baptist family, was saved by someone she never met, calling it almost a “religious experience.”“It really was,” she said. “Because when I got the eviction notice, all I could do was pray.”Helping answer those prayers and pay the rent was 13-year-old Jewish girl Rena Brittan, who became inspired to help others while studying child labor laws during a service project for her bat mitzvah.“She wanted to help people pay their rent in part because she wanted families and children to be safe,” said Rena’s mother, Dana Brittan.Dana says while her daughter is staying away from the spotlight and is no longer doing interviews, she still is helping others pay their bills.“Part of why that’s so important is because once a person is evicted from their home, it’s like having a criminal record,” she said.Rena started a GoFundMe page with the money going to the Resident Relief Foundation, a nonprofit that help people pay their rent.With a recent report by the American Apartment Owners Association showing 60% of landlords saying their tenants are unable to pay rent because of the coronavirus, Ratchford-Bass is thankful for Rena helping cover her housing cost during this crisis.“If I could give her a big hug, I would,” Ratchford-Bass said. “She just doesn’t know how much she’s helped my family and I’m sure other families, too.”So far, Rena’s GoFundMe page has raised more than ,000, an amount she hopes to increase as millions of Americans still face evictions during this pandemic. 1975

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