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SAN DIEGO (KGTV) — As states continue to count votes, one thing is clear: the pre-election polls were off again.Pollsters underestimated support for President Donald Trump by a wider margin than they did in 2016, prompting a number of theories about what went wrong and why changes adopted after the 2016 election proved ineffective.Heading into Election Day 2020, candidate Joe Biden led Trump nationally by an average of 8.4%, according to FiveThirtyEight’s polling average. We won’t know the final margin until all the votes are counted, but it looks like Trump’s support was underestimated by about 3.5%.That’s wider than the national popular vote miss in 2016, when the polls underestimated Trump’s support by 1.1%.“Polling emerged from 2016 with a black eye. This is fair to say a second black eye in 2020,” said Jay Leve of polling firm SurveyUSA.Leve said the industry thought it had corrected its 2016 mistakes. Polling in the 2018 midterms was very accurate.In 2020, pollsters made sure to weigh for education level and include enough non-college-educated white voters to try to capture a representative sample of the electorate.But state polls show it didn’t work. In Ohio, there was a nearly 8-point miss. In Wisconsin, there was a nearly 10-point miss. In Florida, the polls missed by 5 points and incorrectly showed Biden in the lead.“While pollsters attempted to correct for the mistakes that they made in 2016, President Trump was busy hammering home a narrative that, number one, the media is the enemy of the people. And number two, polls are fake polls,” Leve said.Leve thinks that skepticism and distrust caused Trump supporters to ignore pollsters at a higher rate, causing them to be underrepresented in samples.San Diego State political scientist Dr. Stephen Goggin says there are other theories as well.“Between mail-in balloting, the pandemic, between all the early voting and all the confusion it creates, it’s possible some of that played a role in creating the error we saw this time,” he said.Goggin said the pandemic may have made the models used to predict voter turnout less accurate this cycle. Many surveys heading into the election showed an unusual trend: Biden was polling better among so-called “likely voters” than among registered voters overall. Typically Republicans hold an edge among likely voters, Nate Cohn of the New York Times noted.There’s also some early data suggesting once the pandemic hit, Democrats started responding to surveys more frequently, something that could have shifted the poll numbers.There may have also been issues surveying certain demographic groups. Pre-election polls showed Biden chipping away at Trump’s lead with seniors compared to 2016, but Biden actually did worse than Clinton with that demographic in certain key states. Trump’s support among Hispanic voters in Florida also surprised pollsters. If exit polling data shows that trend continued in other states, it might explain about one-quarter of this year’s polling error, according to the New York Times.“Many of these errors are fixable when they find out what went wrong and you can still get high-quality samples,” Goggin said.Pollsters are planning to do detailed autopsies on the election once they have final turnout data and results by precinct. Polling firms will eventually post detailed data from their results to the Roper Center for more finely tuned analysis.ABC 10News used SurveyUSA this election cycle to poll 11 state and local races. The final polls accurately predicted the winner in all 11 races, although the margins weren’t perfect.The ABC 10News/Union-Tribune scientific polls actually overestimated Trump’s support in California by about 4 points, relative to vote totals as of November 12. 3757

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) -- County Supervisors Wednesday sent a letter to Governor Gavin Newsom asking him to take a second look at San Diego, potentially allowing shuttered businesses to reopen amid COVID-19. In the letter, Supervisors Kristin Gaspar, Jim Desmond, and Councilmember Chris Cate of the sixth district said Newsom’s “one-size-fits-all approach to closing entire business sectors is misguided as evidenced by the many sectors in San Diego forced to close their doors again despite not having contributed at all to the rise in our local cases.”Supervisors also pushed the governor to give more control to local leaders and health officials. RELATED: San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer, other local leaders take action to keep restaurants open“It is time to give local control of this public health emergency to the elected leaders and clinical team closest to the people so that we can begin community specific healing based on local data,” the letter reads.The letter was sent after San Diego was added to the state’s watch list, forcing some businesses to halt indoor operations.Following the new rules, Mayor Kevin Faulconer signed an emergency executive order making it easier for restaurants to operate outdoors.RELATED: San Diego to close some businesses as COVID-19 cases spikeThe Poway City Council also voted to provide picnic tables to local restaurants in an effort to help businesses move outside.Read the full letter below: 1446

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) — Chris Cate may soon feel like the loneliest politician in San Diego.Come December, he'll likely be the only Republican on the otherwise Democratic San Diego City Council. That’s because it appears Democrats will secure an 8-1 advantage on the City Council, based on returns from Tuesday’s election.“We'll have to figure out a new path going into election two years from now and another election two years after that,” Cate said.Cate is a San Diego native who represents the city's North Central areas. The jobs are technically nonpartisan, but divides do show when it comes to key votes on housing development, city contracting, and public safety. Cate says he won't be shy.“And really try to ensure that we as a government are mindful of the fact that we rely on taxpayer dollars to provide those resources, and not try to go back to the well multiple times to increase fees or taxes,” Cate said.Cate describes himself as a fiscal conservative and social moderate. He joined the council in 2014, when Democrats had a 5-4 advantage over Republicans. Democrat registration has exploded since then, with some politicians abandoning the Republican Party.Termed out Councilman Mark Kersey is now an independent, and State Assemblyman Brian Maienschein flipped to a democrat.But Cate says he'll never leave the party.“Absolutely not… 100%, no,” he said.Being the lone Republican on the council could also raise Cate’s political profile. For instance, many times he'd be the only alternative viewpoint for journalists to ask for comment. Cate said, however, that he's not seeking higher office. He terms out in 2022.Cate said more than 90% of the issues the council takes up are nonpartisan. He added he has known leading Democratic mayoral candidate Todd Gloria for years and finds him to be a person of integrity. 1836

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) - California gubernatorial candidate Gavin Newsom hosted a roundtable discussion at Grossmont College in El Cajon Wednesday, discussing the state’s ongoing housing crisis and other affordability issues Californians continue to face.On housing, Newsom said California's housing crisis revolves around affordability. He said the state is averaging 100,000 units statewide per year, but to reach an affordability equilibrium 400,000 a year is needed."We're 49th out of 50 in per capita housing units. Only Utah is producing less housing per capita. We can't double housing production and address the issue of affordability. We have an affordability crisis," Newsom said. "The next governor needs to be intense about this. Passionate about this.RELATED: Top candidates for California governor lay out plans to address affordable housing issue"We have no statewide housing goals in California. None. And that must change in January of next year."Newsom also touched on the controversial state gas tax.However, Newsom said while groups are quick to push back, they offer no alternative."There's no identifiable alternative dollars. So they're just going to erase -plus billion a year that's being invested as we speak in improving our infrastructure and addressing the deferred maintenance in the state," Newsom said. "It's easy politics to say no. But then they offer zero, nothing, in terms of an alternative."RELATED: San Diego's housing shortfall could grow if unchecked, report saysAn effort led by former San Diego Councilmember Carl DeMaio recently gathered enough signatures to place a repeal of the tax on the 2018 ballot. 1699

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) — As we approach the November election, all eyes are on a handful of battleground states.That’s because of an election procedure that a lot of people have questions about and one that is unique to presidential politics: the Electoral College.When you fill out a ballot for president, you’re not actually voting for the candidate whose name you see. In California, you’re actually voting for 55 people who you may have never heard of, a “slate of electors,” who turn around and cast the real votes from the state Capitol in December. It dates back to 1787. The Founding Fathers were split on the mechanics of how to elect a president, and “this was the thing that they could all agree on,” said UC San Diego political science professor Daniel Butler.The Electoral College was a compromise between the framers who were leery of giving direct power to the masses and others who opposed having Congress elect the president.“It felt a lot like Parliament, a lot like what the British did, which is not what they were going to do,” Butler said.Article II of the Constitution lays out how it works. Each state gets a number of electors equal to the size of their congressional delegation; their senators and U.S. representatives. California has 55 electors, the most of any state.The Founders set up the Electoral College system under one big assumption: that it would be extremely rare for candidates to actually secure a majority, which today is 270 votes. If the contest ended without a majority winner, it would be decided by Congress.The last election decided by Congress was in 1824. The scenario the Founders predicted might happen once or twice a century has unfolded in every election since.“I think what frustrates many people about the Electoral College is that that majority winner in the popular vote isn’t always who captures the majority in the Electoral College,” said UC San Diego political science chair Thad Kousser.In 2016, then-candidate Donald Trump became just the fifth person in history to win the Electoral College and lose the popular vote, out of 58 presidential elections. It also happened in 2000 in the contest between George W. Bush and Al Gore.The Founders envisioned the Electoral College as a check on the popular vote, able to potentially choose a different candidate than the one favored by the masses, but in practice, electors almost never do that. Most states have laws requiring electors to follow the popular vote.It was big news in 2016 when 10 electors broke ranks in an effort to block candidate Trump, because in every state electors are party loyalists, hand-picked by top leaders. So-called faithless electors have never swung an election.Kousser says for all the recent controversy surrounding the electoral college, there are some major benefits. Because the system empowers states whose electorate is closely divided between the parties, Kousser said it helps mitigate the role of money in politics.“What the electoral college does is it focuses and narrows the playing field to these few battleground states,” he said. “That's where you've got to run ads. That's where you've got to run your campaigns, not in 50 states. If we had to run 50-state campaigns then it would cost billions of dollars to win elections and it would give a huge advantage to whichever side raised the most money.”The other benefit of focusing elections on key swing states is that it pushes the parties more towards the center, Kousser argues. Without the Electoral College, he says candidates would try to “run up the score” and collect as many votes as possible in more populous states like California and Texas that tend to be more politically polarized. 3703