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On a recent getaway to Phoenix to relax, eat more than I should and enjoy a little baseball, I had the good fortune to check into The Scott Resort & Spa. Located in central Scottsdale, on the west side of Phoenix, the hotel offers a comfortable place to kick back and explore the city.When you walk into The Scott, you’re met with a sense of openness. The hotel recently remodeled the lobby (more on that later), and I was struck by the Cuban-style furniture – Miami in Arizona – and the many different seating options and plentiful board games. The space seems designed for conversation or perhaps a nice cocktail – comfortable without being pretentious.Walk past the wrap-around, indoor/outdoor bar, and the same logic applies to the patio, with more seating, fire pits, palm trees and beautiful foliage.Beyond that lie the two swimming pools. There’s a shallow rendition with sand – your own inland beach – ideal for kids. The larger pool next door features The Canal Club bar, seat-side service and private cabanas for rent.The Room 1048

Officials in North Carolina now say that seven people have been killed in flash floods prompted by Tropical Storm Eta.The Charlotte Observer reports that four people were killed in Alexander County, located about an hour north of Charlotte. There, at a local campground, three bodies were recovered and another 31 people were rescued. As of Thursday afternoon, an adult and a child were still missing from the campsite.Elsewhere in Alexander County, another person died when floodwaters caused a bridge to collapse. It was one of four bridges in the country that were swept away by floods, and one of the collapses was captured live by a local TV news channel.The Observer reports that two other deaths were recorded in Iredell County when floodwaters caused a pickup truck to hydroplane and collided with an oncoming car.The New York Times reports that the seventh fatality occurred in Wake County — near Raleigh — where witnesses say a child who had been playing near a creek drowned in a flash flood.According to The Weather Channel, the Charlotte area received seven inches of rain on Thursday, causing creeks and rivers to overflow quickly. Five counties in North Carolina declared states of emergency.The National Hurricane Center reports that Eta, now a post-tropical cyclone, is currently located just offshore of the Carolinas. The storm's outer bands are still bringing rain to coastal areas of the states. 1424

On their surface, a lot polls got the 2016 election wrong. As late as October 23, 2016, an ABC News poll had Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by 12%.But pollsters say that polls like the one conducted by ABC News do not even tell the whole story.“National polls are very helpful in giving us a sense of who might win the popular vote. In that regard, 2016 polls were relatively accurate,” said Emily Goodman is a principal at EMC Research, a nationwide polling firm.Hilary Clinton won the popular vote by about 2.8 million votes or 2%. In the last week of the election, many polls had tightened to have Clinton winning by about 2 to 5 percent. Goodman says a lot of people don’t understand polls.“One of the most important things to know about polls is that, they’re just a point in time, it’s a snapshot,” she said. There are a few key things you should look for when it comes to polling, the first being you don’t win the presidency by winning the popular vote.“The path to the presidency is by winning 270 Electoral College votes and that is why the state by state polling is incredibly important,” said Goodman. So nationwide polling won’t tell you who will win. Instead, state by state polling is more helpful.There’s also a few other things you should look for if you see a poll on the news, social media or other places.“The first is timeline, when was it conducted? Are you looking at a poll that was very recent, or a poll that was conducted months ago? Who the poll is conducted among. So are you looking at a poll of adults, are you looking at a poll of registered voters, of likely voters, or some other subset of the population? The sample size, that is, how many people were actually included in the poll? That ultimately tells you what the margin of error is. How the poll was conducted, what was the methodology? Was it conducted on telephone and did those phones include landlines and cellphones? Was it conducted online, over text?” Goodman explains. One key thing there, how polling respondents are reached, and it’s one thing that a pollster who got the 2016 election right says is key.“I don’t want the public face, I want what you really think because your real opinions are what go in that voting booth with you, when nobody is looking," said Robert Cahaly, the lead pollster for the Trafalgar Group,In 2016, Trafalgar projected Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Florida for Donald Trump. He says in 2016, there was a group of hidden Trump supporters. He said it’s a result of what’s called the Social Desirability Bias.“When you speak to a live person on the phone, you tend, especially when you know they know who you are, you tend to give an answer to a question that you think will make you look best in the mind of the person you’re talking to versus your true feeling,” he said. Cahaley says to some people, being seen as a Trump supporter is so undesirable, they won’t tell the truth to people conducting polls on the phone. He’s seeing the same exact thing in 2020 he saw in 2016 and that traditional polling may not be accounting for this.However, Goodman says that the industry is expanding how to reach respondents.“What used to be the gold standard of telephone surveys, exclusively landlines, is no longer appropriate. Cellphones, but beyond just having someone just call up a voter on your cellphone, we’re also now including texting, emailing, that includes a link to take a survey online and using a mix of those methodologies really helps get a representative sample of likely voters,”Both pollsters do agree on one thing however, this election will come down to turn out.“A lot of this is really going to come down to turn out,” said Goodman. “This thing has never been a persuasion election, I’ve said that from the beginning, it’s a motivational election. Whichever side turns out their people is going to win this race, and it’s that simple,” said Cahaley. 3923

OCEANSIDE, Calif. (KGTV) — 79 years after the surprise attack at Pearl Harbor that brought the United States into World War Two, there are few survivors remaining. However, the memories of that day are crystal clear for 101-year-old Oceanside resident George Coburn.“One of the things I’ll always remember is the time I spent swimming after the Oklahoma turned over," Coburn said during an interview with ABC 10News. "I thought about a lot of things when I was in the water there.”Coburn was aboard the battleship USS Oklahoma on December 7th, 1941. He was working to prepare for a major inspection that was scheduled for the following day. Rumors began circulating belowdecks that the base was under attack. The rumor was confirmed just a few minutes later. "“I still remember the announcement. It was was rather unique. 'Real planes. Real bombs. No [expletive]'The Oklahoma took several hits from Japanese torpedoes. As the battleship began to sink, hundreds of sailors were trapped, including Coburn. He managed to wedge himself out through a porthole. "If I had been a little bit bigger, it would have been a hell of a tough job.”Coburn plummeted several feet into the water below. He found himself surrounded by burning shrapnel. However, he says the most terrifying danger was the continuous fire from Japanese fighters. “I could see the little geysers of machine gun bullets hitting the water.”After a few minutes in the water, Coburn managed to find the rope tying the Oklahoma to the neighboring USS Maryland. He climbed the rope aboard the Maryland and survived the remainder of the attack.Coburn went on to serve in many of the biggest naval actions of the war. He was awarded the Purple Heart after being struck by several pieces of shrapnel during the Battle of Okinawa. Do to a Navy paperwork error, Coburn was never given eight other medals from his service. He finally received the medals in 2019, after a campaign by a Palomar College historian and the intervention of Congressman Mike Levin. Coburn said it did not bother him that it took so long. “I knew what I’d done and where I’d been. The medals didn’t change that a particle.” 2158

ORLANDO, Fla. — A portion of the Florida Turnpike closed on Tuesday afternoon as semi-trucks line underneath the overpass in an effort to save a suicidal man. The Florida Highway Patrol shared an image at 1:40 p.m. local time on Tuesday of at least seven semi-trucks lined up underneath the overpass as a man hung over the side of a fence. The image also shows a group of officers talking to the man. According to FHP, the Florida Turnpike was closed in both directions near Kirkman Road in Orlando. After more than an hour, FHP says that the distressed male came off the bridge, on his own.All lanes of the Florida Turnpike reopened just before 3 p.m.If you or someone you know is struggling with depression, call the National Suicide Prevention Lifeline at 800-273-8255 to speak with someone who will provide free and confidential support 24 hours a day, seven days a week.  929