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When experts look at the economy and its rebound, they go through an alphabet soup of letters, with a “V” shape recovery being the best-case scenario. It’s a fast decline with a fast recovery. Letters like “W” or “L” mean a much slower and painful path forward.A resurgence of more COVID-19 cases is shifting the likely shape of our economic recovery, and having economists evaluate the likelihood of a recovery in the shape of the more dreaded letters.“The fact that the virus has increased in a number of states shows that it is still very much a threat not only to one’s health but the economy,” said Michelle Meyer, who heads U.S. Economics at Bank of America. “The initial stage of the recovery was quite robust. It felt quite ‘V’ like, the economy was digging its way out of what was a very deep hole.”According to Bank of America, about a third of the jobs lost during the pandemic have been recovered. However, the recovery has slowed down into more of a “U” shape, and now data is showing a stall with concern of a higher chance of a “W” or “L” shape recovery.“The ‘W’ trajectory would be the worst-case scenario. That would show real fragility on the economy if we dipped back into a recession,” added Meyer.Experts say it would lead even higher unemployment, and more permanent job loss and business closures. In addition, to come out of a “W” or “L” shape recovery, we would need even more stimulus money from the federal government, which may not even improve the economic downturn as much as it did the first time.“Stimulus in Washington provides a really nice band-aid and I think it helped tremendously in the first stage of this recovery but at the end of the day, we need the economy to fundamentally improve,” said Meyer.The good news is unless there is a significant or full shutdown again, a “W” shape recovery is still less likely to occur than a “U” shape.“Our analysis projects that a 'U' shape recovery with rather steep losses and growth this year and rather flat next year and then recovering subsequently is the most likely outcome,” said David Turkington, the Senior Vice President at State Street Associates.A recent State Street study based on 100 years of historical data shows that the U.S. still has 30.1% chance of a “U” recovery, and a combined 24.4% chance of a “W” or “L” shape recovery which include stagflation and depression outcomes.“The real economy I think is what determines the recovery and how that plays forward,” said Turkington.The real economy is jobs, businesses and consumer spending. Providing stability there could determine which way the economy goes. 2615

When United Flight 93 crashed in Shanksville, PA, on Sept. 11, 2001, John Gerula was one of the first on the scene as a volunteer firefighter. The experience inspired John, still in high school, to enlist in the Marines. He shipped out to Iraq two years later, and today he bears the invisible wounds of war.Over the course of 18 months in Fallujah and Operation Phantom Fury, Gerula survived 21 improvised explosive device blasts, resulting in a severe traumatic brain injury that gave him migraines and memory loss, and post-traumatic stress that left him anxious, isolated and abusing alcohol.“I would spend a lot of time by myself at home on my property, just away from people,” Gerula says. “I didn't like large crowds, just the things that brought me back to what caused my issues, the flashbacks and everything.”That all changed this summer when Oliver, Gerula’s service dog, came into his life.”He can sense when I start to breathe heavy, when my heart rate's high, things of that nature, he comes up to me allows me to pet him,” Gerula says. “Since I’ve had Oliver, I’ve not had a drop of alcohol. I gave up drinking altogether. So he has made huge changes in my life.”Gerula and Oliver are among the first four pairs of veterans and service dogs to graduate from American Humane’s “Shelter to Service” program, created to combat the staggering statistics of 20 veterans committing suicide daily due to PTSD and TBI, and the 670,000 dogs euthanized every year in America’s animal shelters.“We saw a great opportunity to uplift the healing power of the human-animal bond by taking incredible dogs who were abandoned, who needed a second chance at life, giving them unbelievable, rigorous training, and then matching them with our veterans, allowing these veterans a chance for healing, hope, compassion, and love,” says American Humane’s President and CEO Robin Ganzert.Ganzert’s organization is currently training its second “Shelter to Service” class while advocating for a bill on Capitol Hill to establish national training standards and speed up the service dog waitlist, which currently runs from 18 to 24 months.And Gerula has a message to veterans seeking the help with their own struggles.“Don't give up,” he says. “The best thing to do is to keep going and just go do every option you can.” 2346

When Francesca Marie McNally was born, she was the perfect baby. “Perfectly healthy. Beautiful. Very interactive,” describes her dad, Sean McNally. He and his wife Veronica were in love with their little girl. Just before she turned three months old, she started coughing.  “We saw four doctors,” said Veronica. “None of the doctors we were seeing, and there were so many, really knew what it was,” said Sean.After not getting answers from their pediatrician's office and local emergency rooms, they took their baby to Children’s Hospital of Michigan in Detroit. Doctors there immediately recognized how serious the situation was. She was rushed into intensive care. She did not make it. “It is with me every day. I think about her every day. I feel that loss every day,” said Veronica. Doctors found out too late that Francesca had whooping cough and they also found out how she caught it. “I had whooping cough. I don’t know where I got it from. I look back and wish that I would have known more about the way I could have protected myself and my family,” said Veronica. Babies cannot be vaccinated against whooping cough, but doctors recommend those who care for them are. Veronica says she asked why she wasn’t told this during her pregnancy. According to medical records, on the day of her delivery, a nurse offered her the Tdap shot, which is the whooping cough vaccine. 1449

While millions of Americans tuned in to watch the first presidential debate between President Donald Trump and Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden, data shows the event will likely not impact the final outcome of the election.The first of three presidential debates was held Tuesday night in Cleveland, Ohio.NewsChannel 5 Political Analyst Pat Nolan said the first debate always brings high stakes for the candidates and high interest from voters."This is probably the biggest opportunity for both candidates to get in front of voters and convince them they are the right person," said Nolan.While people tuned in to hear what both candidates had to say, Nolan said polls show the debate ultimately won't sway voters."I think people have decided, I like Donald Trump and I will vote for him, or I like Joe Biden, I will vote for Joe Biden and they won’t change their minds," said Nolan.The debate was held in Ohio, which is considered a swing state. Nolan said while the number of undecided voters may be smaller in the current polarizing political climate, winning those votes matters and can make a difference in swing states.While both President Trump and Biden presented their plans for the country and tried to energize supporters, Nolan said many were watching for a viral moment that could make or break either candidate."It's like any big event, when you are up on the stage and the bright lights are out there, anyone can make a mistake."There are still two more debates coming up in October. The second presidential debate will be Oct. 15 in Miami, and the final debate will be Oct. 22 at Belmont University in Nashville.This story was first reported by Emily Luxen at WTVF in Nashville, Tennessee. 1722

When you step inside a restaurant in eastern Idaho, it’s no secret which menu item is a favorite one."I don’t know what other kind of potatoes we would have if we didn’t have Idaho potatoes," said FaDale Fisher, who works at Big Jud's in Ashton, Idaho.The restaurant is feeling life again in a state that produces more potatoes than any other.“Now, we’re almost back to full force, even though we are still limited on tables, business is still really well," she said.Idaho potatoes are also an important ingredient at Grandpa's Southern BBQ in Idaho Falls.Owner Lloyd Westbrook says take-out orders have helped his restaurant thrive this year. He's been in business since 1995.“You will find hospitality in restaurants out West, but it’s just not quite southern hospitality," he said.While the sight of spirited kitchens could give hope the food industry is beginning to rebound, for some of the potato farmers who work close by in this state, that hope feels very far away.“It’s unclear if we’re even going to be able to stay in business," said Doug Hess.Hess' family has farmed his land since the 1800s.“When you look around, you realize you’re actually farming with not your equity but your grandfather's, your father's equity," Hess said.Hess’ specialty is seed potatoes. They are grown free of virus and genetic defects.He sells to commercial farmers, who use the seed potatoes to grow the ones you eventually eat.Hess says the pandemic caused a food-chain reaction that hurt his business. When restaurants closed, the distributors that deliver potatoes to kitchens pulled back on buying from commercial growers, and those growers bought less of his already grown crop."We were anticipating a bag of a potatoes," Hess said. "Click of a switch if you could get rid of it for ."He was left with a pile of potatoes, and he donated about a quarter of his crop.He's now planted significantly less as COVID-19 cases rise.The federal government has stepped in to help the potato industry, but Hess says the struggles of he and his fellow farmers could last long after the pandemic."It could be three or four years out before this thing stabilizes," he said.For this lifelong farmer, it's a generational pressure.“Every time I sit at the table and I look at my sons thinking, ‘Will I be able to pass this on as my father passed on to me?’” Hess said. 2361