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SAN DIEGO (KGTV) — The latest ABC News national polling average shows former Vice President Joe Biden leading President Donald Trump by 8 points.But a lot of people are wondering, can we trust the polls after what happened in 2016?The last time Donald Trump was on the ballot in 2016, the polls had him trailing former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton by an average of 3.2 percentage points, and we know what happened.However, pollsters weren’t off by as much as you might think.“At the national level, the polling was, remarkably, given all things, precise,” said Jay Leve, CEO of the polling firm SurveyUSA.Trump lost the popular vote by 2.1 points instead of 3.2, the most accurate these national polls had been in 80 years, according to an analysis by the American Association for Public Opinion Research.Where the polls did miss badly was at the state level, particularly in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, three states that were critical in the Electoral College.Leve said there were several reasons for the polling problems at the state level.“Polling is a very expensive undertaking and so it is not possible for the handful of media organizations with pockets deep enough to afford a public opinion poll to be able to poll in every critical battleground state,” he said.Another reason? “Some of it has to do with what’s called ‘weighting,’” he added.To understand weighting, you have to know the two R’s of a good poll: it needs to be representative and random.Random samples are critical to the accuracy of polling, and you can look to your kitchen for an example why. Picture adding salt to a soup. If you mix it right, you can check the taste with any one spoonful -- you don’t have to eat the entire pot. That’s because each spoonful is a truly random sample.If you don’t mix the salt in, you could easily wind up sampling a part of the soup without any salt.When you’re trying to sample the American public with a political poll, either over the phone or most of the time now online, it’s more challenging to get a perfectly random spoonful.“The challenge is to find the individuals in the right numbers and secure their cooperation. Those two things don’t automatically work in sync,” Leve said. “People don’t want to be disturbed. They want privacy and a pollster by definition is an interruption.”It turns out, certain people tend to resist taking polls, while others are more willing. Research shows people with college degrees are more likely to respond to surveys than high school grads.That means surveys run the risk of not being representative of the voter population at large, and Leve said that kind of imbalance played a big role in 2016.To make a sample representative, pollsters gather up as many responses as they can, then adjust them with a process called weighting -- basically boosting or shrinking responses from people with certain demographics to match census data and the expected turnout.“The weighting criteria that was in issue in 2016 was whether you had enough non-college educated white voters in your sample,” Leve said. “If you did, you got the Trump forecast correct.”State polls that didn’t weight by education level missed badly, because to an extent far greater than in previous elections, voters with a college education broke for Clinton while voters with a high school education backed Trump.There’s some evidence that pollsters have learned from their 2016 mistakes. Polling in the 2018 midterms was very accurate -- a full point better than the average over the last 20 years.So can we trust the polls this time around?Leve says yes, as long as you remember that polls are just a snapshot in time and Donald Trump is difficult to predict.“Don’t be surprised if something happens in the final four, five, six days of the election, right before November 3rd, that’s so unforeseeable that neither you nor I nor anyone watching us could have imagined. And if so, that’s going to throw all the polls off,” he said. 3979

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) — The County Board of Supervisors voted Tuesday to send a letter to Gov. Gavin Newsom requesting they be allowed to reopen the local economy.The board voted 4-1, with Supervisor Nathan Fletcher voting "no," to take further steps into reopening amid the coronavirus pandemic. The letter requests San Diego County be permitted to reopen gyms, hotels, nail salons, wineries and breweries, churches at full capacity, theme parks, youth sports, charter and fishing boats, community pools, and museums, Supervisor Jim Desmond tweeted.Following the vote, Desmond said in a statement that it will be up to Newsom, but that most of the board believes the county is ready.RELATED: Passive recreation activities now allowed at San Diego County beaches"Just now, the Board approved a plan telling the Governor we are ready to open for business. It's ultimately up to the Governor to decide, but the message is clear from the Board of Supervisors, we are ready to open," Desmond's statement read.It wasn't immediately clear what specific limits these businesses would be required to operate under if allowed to reopen. Though, the county has released reopening criteria (available here).Fletcher said he could not support the measure to send the letter to the state because he believes "we should stay the course in opening in a safe, responsible and systematic way."RELATED: San Diego County allows churches to reopen with limits"We have had success in our re-opening because of the approach we have taken and not in spite of it. While I agree with the need to continue our safe reopening, and believe a number of additional entities are ready to open at this time I could not support the calls by my colleagues to reopen higher risk entities like churches at full capacity immediately," Fletcher wrote. "I look forward to additional progress in the coming days and weeks but do not support this reckless approach."The board also voted to immediately reopen all beach activities and requested a staff report on how COVID-19 has impacted San Diego's most vulnerable populations.As of Tuesday, San Diego County reported 7,554 coronavirus cases and 269 deaths. 2170

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) — The downtown building at 101 Ash Street has been sitting vacant for most of the last four years and as it continues to sit empty, taxpayers are footing the ,000 per day bill.City Council leaders voted 5-4 — with Council members Vivian Moreno, Monica Montgomery, Barbara Bry, and Georgette Gómezto voting in opposition — to request monthly updates on the building's status and costs for several options presented by Mayor Kevin Faulconer's office.The mayor's options included putting millions of dollars more into the building for the needed repairs, buying out the lease, pursue a new landlord, trying to renegotiate its lease, or walking away entirely, the last of which could risk litigation and credit damage.The coronavirus pandemic has cleared out office buildings across downtown San Diego. But emptiness is business as usual for the old Sempra building at 101 Ash.In 2016, the city approved a lease-to-own agreement for the building, valued at million. The idea was to move upwards of 1,100 city employees into the facility.But officials quickly discovered a series of problems requiring major renovations to the site's 19 floors.In December 2019, the city finally began moving workers into the building, only to vacate them a month later when the county found traces of asbestos.So how did the city get into this mess? A new investigation shows it really never did its homework for such a big purchase from the start.The law firm Hugo Parker found that, "at no time, however, did the city formally inspect 101 Ash before closing escrow."In January, councilmember Barbara Bry showed ABC 10News a document that the city accepted the property as is."That is stupid to do when you are doing a long-term lease purchase on a building that was built in the 1960s," Bry said.An additional new report from Kitchell says the building needs 5 million of repairs, which is well more than what the city paid for it. 1947

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) — The famed Jessop's Clock that has rested in Horton Plaza since the center opened has been removed.Tuesday, the clock was moved into temporary storage, though the location is not being revealed, according to Jim Jessop, former owner of Jessop's Jewelry, a plaza mainstay for 125 years before closing in 2017.Upon announcing the closing of Jessop's Jewelry, the plaza asked Jessop to move the clock.RELATED: Grocery chain suing Horton Plaza over millions in sales lossesIt's likely the clock, constructed in 1907, will remain in temporary storage for a couple of years until its new location's lease is signed, Jessop says.The fact that its current location is being kept secret may be due to security concerns. Jessop said the clock had been vandalized in February and it had to be moved out as soon as possible because of the lack of security at the plaza to keep it safe. 899

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) — The National Institutes of Health highlighted research Tuesday out of UC San Diego that could unlock a new way to treat COVID-19.The research reveals new insight into how the coronavirus hijacks cells, and how doctors might be able to set traps or decoys to combat the virus. The findings were published in the journal Cell last month.“It does open up another avenue for a potential treatment,” said UC San Diego distinguished professor Dr. Jeffrey Esko. “It’s not a cure. It would be something that would tamp down infection potentially.”Since January, scientists around the world have understood that SARS-Co-V2, the official name of the new coronavirus, enters cells by latching onto a specific receptor on the cell’s surface, called ACE2.The UCSD team, led by Dr. Esko and visiting scholar Dr. Thomas Clausen, discovered that this entry mechanism is actually a two-step process, and the virus must also attach to a long chain of sugars called heparan sulfate.“We’ve shown this is fundamental to the infectious mechanism, so it needs to be part of every study from now on,” said Clausen.All cells are coated with a complex layer of sugars, or carbohydrates, called glycans. Heparan sulfate is one type of glycan that is known to play a key role in the infection process in several viruses, including herpes and other coronaviruses.It’s a complicated process to picture so the researchers offer an analogy: imagine a bird, soaring over trees, hunting a worm on the forest floor. The bird is the coronavirus and the trees are the thick layer of glycans that coat the surface of the cell.To reach the worm, which in this case is the receptor ACE2, the bird must navigate its way through the trees, specifically through heparan sulfate.The UCSD found that by removing the heparan sulfate trees with an enzyme, they were able to prevent the virus from infecting cells. In laboratory testing, they also found a second technique worked to foil the virus: introducing more trees as bait.The team found that heparin, an FDA-approved drug that is similar in structure to heparan sulfate, successfully acted as decoy. Heparin is a widely used drug designed to treat blood clots. Since blood clots and strokes are common complications with COVID-19, many doctors already administer heparin to patients.The UCSD team demonstrated that the two approaches can block infection in lab-grown cells about 80 to 90 percent of the time.“Certainly in the laboratory you can demonstrate that it works, but to deploy it and use it as a therapeutic has not been demonstrated,” Esko said.The NIH noted that more studies are planned to explore whether heparin, heparan sulfate, or drugs that target heparan sulfate might yield a viable COVID-19 treatment.Dr. Esko said he’s already been in talks with companies that plan to use their study as a rationale for a clinical trial.“It is very humbling when you realize we’re working on a pandemic right now, and maybe what we’ve done can contribute to a treatment for the disease,” he said. 3038

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