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On their surface, a lot polls got the 2016 election wrong. As late as October 23, 2016, an ABC News poll had Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by 12%.But pollsters say that polls like the one conducted by ABC News do not even tell the whole story.“National polls are very helpful in giving us a sense of who might win the popular vote. In that regard, 2016 polls were relatively accurate,” said Emily Goodman is a principal at EMC Research, a nationwide polling firm.Hilary Clinton won the popular vote by about 2.8 million votes or 2%. In the last week of the election, many polls had tightened to have Clinton winning by about 2 to 5 percent. Goodman says a lot of people don’t understand polls.“One of the most important things to know about polls is that, they’re just a point in time, it’s a snapshot,” she said. There are a few key things you should look for when it comes to polling, the first being you don’t win the presidency by winning the popular vote.“The path to the presidency is by winning 270 Electoral College votes and that is why the state by state polling is incredibly important,” said Goodman. So nationwide polling won’t tell you who will win. Instead, state by state polling is more helpful.There’s also a few other things you should look for if you see a poll on the news, social media or other places.“The first is timeline, when was it conducted? Are you looking at a poll that was very recent, or a poll that was conducted months ago? Who the poll is conducted among. So are you looking at a poll of adults, are you looking at a poll of registered voters, of likely voters, or some other subset of the population? The sample size, that is, how many people were actually included in the poll? That ultimately tells you what the margin of error is. How the poll was conducted, what was the methodology? Was it conducted on telephone and did those phones include landlines and cellphones? Was it conducted online, over text?” Goodman explains. One key thing there, how polling respondents are reached, and it’s one thing that a pollster who got the 2016 election right says is key.“I don’t want the public face, I want what you really think because your real opinions are what go in that voting booth with you, when nobody is looking," said Robert Cahaly, the lead pollster for the Trafalgar Group,In 2016, Trafalgar projected Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Florida for Donald Trump. He says in 2016, there was a group of hidden Trump supporters. He said it’s a result of what’s called the Social Desirability Bias.“When you speak to a live person on the phone, you tend, especially when you know they know who you are, you tend to give an answer to a question that you think will make you look best in the mind of the person you’re talking to versus your true feeling,” he said. Cahaley says to some people, being seen as a Trump supporter is so undesirable, they won’t tell the truth to people conducting polls on the phone. He’s seeing the same exact thing in 2020 he saw in 2016 and that traditional polling may not be accounting for this.However, Goodman says that the industry is expanding how to reach respondents.“What used to be the gold standard of telephone surveys, exclusively landlines, is no longer appropriate. Cellphones, but beyond just having someone just call up a voter on your cellphone, we’re also now including texting, emailing, that includes a link to take a survey online and using a mix of those methodologies really helps get a representative sample of likely voters,”Both pollsters do agree on one thing however, this election will come down to turn out.“A lot of this is really going to come down to turn out,” said Goodman. “This thing has never been a persuasion election, I’ve said that from the beginning, it’s a motivational election. Whichever side turns out their people is going to win this race, and it’s that simple,” said Cahaley. 3923

On Election Day, TikTok says it will limit premature victory claims until the Associated Press has declared a result.The company said in a press release that they are doing this to make sure no one is intimidated or suppressed by voting.The social media company added that they'd be partnering with fact-checkers to "reduce discoverability of content that prematurely claims victory in a race" before results are confirmed.TikTok says if the results cannot be verified or fact-checking is inconclusive, they will limit the content's distribution.The company added that they'd also add a banner that'll point users to its election guide on content with unverifiable claims about voting, premature declarations of victory, or attempts to dissuade people from voting by exploiting COVID-19 as a voter suppression tactic. 825

OAK PARK, Mich. — The city of Oak Park, Michigan will host its annual Boo Bash Halloween event next Wednesday, but they are not allowing anyone to come as a clown.On the event page, the city says people can bring children in their favorite Halloween costumes, collect candy down the trick-or-treat street and enjoy cider and donuts. They also say that clown costumes are not allowed.Oak Park Recreation Director Laurie Stasiak told the Oakland County Times the ban stems from fear and anxiety over clowns for some children."In the past few years, many clown costumes have been given a very scary and evil look. Many scary and horror movies are centered around these types of characters. About three years [ago] there were national incidents in the news where people were dressing up as clowns and scaring people and in some cases assaulting them," she told the Oakland County?Times. "Many people have phobias and anxiety about clowns. It’s because of this that we asked people not to dress up as clowns for this community event.” 1067

OCEANSIDE, Calif. (KGTV) - Two North County bars have voluntarily closed down because of positive COVID tests.Last Friday, Kate Dionisio went to dinner with her husband at Masters Kitchen and Cocktail."We had dinner and one drink, and stayed about an hour," said Dionisio.A week later, Dinoisio, who has an underlying health condition, says the night of celebration has sparked anxiety."Panic. Scary. We've been so careful with masks and taking precautions, but this felt out of my control," said Dionisio.On Thursday, on the bar's Facebook page, a message announced a recent positive coronavirus test and a voluntary closure for two weeks to best ensure everyone's "health and safety." The bar's owner says an employee was tested on Monday, with the positive result coming on Wednesday. The next day, the same day of the Masters post on Facebook, there was a similar message put up by Mission Avenue Bar and Grill, just a few blocks away. In this case, two employees tested positive. Their post stressed that safety is "our highest priority." It also promised a sanitization by a professional cleaning company. Their reopening date is to be determined, only after every returning staff member has tested negative. The owner of Masters Kitchen and Cocktail says there is no overlap in staff between the bars, but in their industry in Oceanside, "everyone knows everyone."The two bars are just a handful of local bars and restaurants to disclose positive COVID-19 tests. On their Facebook pages, customers weighed in and many lauded the transparency."It shows they respect their customers and care about the community," said Dionisio.In the end, Dionisio contacted the bar and found out the employee wasn't working the night she was there. 1746

ORLANDO, Fla. (AP) — Walt Disney World and the union for its actors and singers have reached an agreement that will allow them to return to work. The deal was reached Wednesday, more than a month after the actors and singers said they were locked out of the reopening of the theme park resort for publicly demanding coronavirus tests. Actors' Equity Association signed a memorandum of understanding allowing the actors, singers, and stage managers to return to their jobs after Disney agreed to have a state-run drive-thru COVID-19 testing site for workers and others at the Florida theme park resort. The union represents 750 Disney World workers. 656