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The polling industry has a lot on the line heading into Tuesday's midterm election.Critics blamed pollsters when voters were caught off guard by Donald Trump's election in 2016. Old cries of "don't believe the polls" became fevered shouts. And the president has encouraged distrust by calling certain polls "fake" and claiming they are used to "suppress" the vote.Although there is no evidence to suggest that is true, there is persistent and widespread suspicion about polling, according to, you guessed it, a McClatchy-Marist poll. And it exists on both sides, albeit in different forms."I think Democrats may have felt let down by the polls but don't think it was an intentional error. I think many Republicans believe the polling errors of 2016 were intentional," GOP pollster and co-founder of Echelon Insights Kristen Soltis Anderson told CNN.So can the industry regain trust?Since 2016 there's been a whole lot of self-reflection in the polling world. Pollsters have tweaked their techniques; pundits have become more cautious when talking about polls; and news outlets have conducted some fascinating experiments.On Tuesday, all the efforts are being put to the test."Some pollsters would disagree with this, but the way that the public generally views whether or not polling is accurate is whether or not it gets the results of the election right," CNN analyst Harry Enten said on "Reliable Sources.""I'm not necessarily sure that's fair," Enten said, "but I do think that there is more pressure on pollsters this year to get it right given the president's rhetoric and given what happened in 2016."Many, though not all, 2016 polls underestimated support for Trump. This effect was particularly pronounced at the state level, where there were embarrassing "misses," showing Hillary Clinton with safe leads in states Trump actually carried.Most national polls accurately showed Clinton winning the popular vote. But reporters and commentators made lots of mistakes in their interpretations of the polls. Readers and viewers did, too. Many people discounted the margin and other factors and made faulty assumptions that Trump would lose to Clinton.There were other problems, too. Predictive features on websites gained lots of traffic before the election but caused lots of consternation afterward. HuffPost's model infamously showed Clinton with a 98 percent chance of winning. "We blew it," the site admitted afterward.But just as importantly, HuffPost's Natalie Jackson tried to explain why.Other news outlets have also tried to be more transparent and remind voters of what polls cannot convey.In special elections since 2016, Democrats have repeatedly outperformed polls of their races.The top example was the Virginia governors' race. "Ralph Northam was favored by three points. He ended up winning by nine," Enten said.But past outcomes are not an indicator of future results."I think many pollsters and forecasters have tried to be much more intentional about explaining uncertainty and being humble about what data can and can't tell us," Anderson said. "Because I think there was a big sense that in 2016, there was more certainty conveyed than may have been justified by the available data."So political pros and reporters are communicating poll results differently this time. Time magazine's Molly Ball, who has a no-predictions rule for herself, said that even people who do make predictions are adding more caveats: There's "less of the, 'Well, the needle shows this' and more of, 'Here's what it doesn't show, here's what we should always remember can happen about probabilities.'"Early voting has been explosive in the midterms, indicating above-average enthusiasm among both Democrats and Republicans. Pollsters have to make assumptions about turnout when contacting "likely voters," and this is a difficult election to forecast.The 2018 electorate is "a universe that doesn't exist yet," Democratic pollster Margie Omero said. "I mean, people don't know whether they're going to vote, some people."They may tell a pollster that they're sure to vote, but never make it to the ballot box. Or they might change who they're voting for.Conversely, certain subsets of voters may have a big impact on the final results without really showing up in the pre-election polling. If pollsters assume relatively low youth turnout, but lots of young people vote for the first time, that could cause big surprises in certain races.The vast majority of people who are called by pollsters decline to participate, so the researchers have to make a huge number of phone calls, bend over backwards to reach a representative sample of people, and weight their results accordingly.Some polls are higher quality than others. Most news outlets tend to favor live interviewers, as opposed to computerized systems, and a mix of landline and cell phone calls. But some outlets are wading into web-based polling. CNN's polling standards preclude reporting on web polls.This fall The New York Times pulled back the curtain by conducting "live polling" and publishing the results in real time, call by call. Working with Siena College, the surveyors made 2,822,889 calls and completed 96 polls of House and Senate races."We wanted to demystify polling for people," said Nate Cohn of The Times' Upshot blog."From our point of view, it's almost a miracle how accurate polls usually are, given all the challenges," Cohn said in an interview with CNN.He emphasized that polls are "very fuzzy things." And the real-time polling showed this to the public. The researchers sought to interview about 500 people for each race that was examined.In Iowa's fourth congressional district, for example, 14,636 calls resulted in 423 interviews.The results showed the incumbent, far-right congressman Steve King, with 47% support, and his Democratic challenger J.D. Scholten with 42%.The Times characterized this as a "slight edge" for King, with lots of room for error. "The margin of sampling error on the overall lead is 10 points, roughly twice as large as the margin for a single candidate's vote share," the Times explained on its website.Cohn's final pre-election story noted that "even modest late shifts among undecided voters or a slightly unexpected turnout could significantly affect results."That's the kind of language that lots of polling experts are incorporating into their stories and live shots, especially in the wake of the 2016 election."With polling, you never actually get to the truth," Cohn said. "You inch towards it, and you think you end up within plus or minus 5 points of it at the end."As Enten put it, "polls are tools," not meant to be perfect. But that message needs to be reinforced through the news media. 6753

The mother of a Maryland teen accused of murdering a Baltimore County Police Officer blamed the justice system in court, saying if her son had been detained the incident would not have happened.“Numerous times I asked them to detain him so nothing like this would happen,” Tanika Wilson, the mother of 16-year-old Dawanta Harris said, fighting through tears. “…my condolences to the family of the officer. My condolences from the bottom of my heart. If they would have kept him we wouldn’t be here.”Harris has been charged of first-degree murder in the death of Officer Amy Caprio. He allegedly ran her over with a stolen car after Capiro confronted him in a  Perry Hall, Maryland, cul de sac.“He knows right from wrong,” Wilson said through tears. “Everything changed, his life, my life, the officer’s life, in a split second.”Wilson, explained the court proceedings her son had been involved in criminal activity since he was first arrested in December 2017. Wilson said she struggled to keep Harris on the straight and narrow as she recently had a baby and Harris transitioned from middle school to high school. She said Harris began hanging out with people that were bad influences.She also said she would travel the neighborhood looking for her son, occasionally getting into confrontations with other families in the process.At the time of Caprio’s death, Harris had violated a home detention order following a hearing?from early May. At that court proceeding on May 10, Wilson says she and the assistant state’s attorney wanted Harris detained. His public defender requested his release on good behavior and a judge concurred, issuing an non-GPS ankle monitor to be placed on Harris for home detention. By Monday, May 14, Harris was declared AWOL and the Department of Juvenile Services made several attempts over the next two days to find him. Harris could not be found or contacted, and by another court appearance on Friday, May 18, Wilson hoped a writ would be issued to find and detain her son.According to court records, because Harris was not at the delinquency hearing, it was tabled until Tuesday, May 22. Caprio was killed on Monday, May 21.“This was a woman who was crying out for help. She turned to every resource available including the court system, because with a mother’s wit and intuition, she had that feeling that sinks in your gut,” J. Wyndal Gordon, one of Harris' attorneys, said. “ … she did everything that she could to avoid what brings us here today ... this is not an excuse for the conduct of her son, but it’s an explanation of how everyone has been affected by what has taken place in this case, and again, not to forget about the victim, because the victim had family to.” Harris' lawyers also called on the state to release body cam footage from the incident.“With regard to suspending judgment, waiting for the evidence, we’re calling for the State’s Attorney, the Police Department, to release the body cam footage” said Warren Brown, one of the lawyer’s representing the driver, Harris. “It should speak for itself, and we see no good reason that the public, especially considering the emotional aspect of this case, should be kept in the dark.”At a press conference earlier this week, Baltimore County State’s Attorney Scott Shellenberger said he would not release any body camera footage in an effort to avoid tainting future jury pools.“We think the body cam footage is the sine qua non of this case. There’s been a lot of strong feelings about this case, but strong feelings do not equal strong facts. We want to ask the tough questions about this case, because it generates a lot of questions that we don’t have answers to,” Gordon said. The two attorneys depicted a scenario in which Caprio blocked Harris in, deployed her weapon, and put him in fear for his life, so that he felt the need to escape, driving blindly forward through his only potential route of escape - where Caprio was standing. “What evidence is it that he intended to hit and kill this police officer? The state has even conceded that when the gun was drawn at some point, either before or after the first shot is fired, he’s ducking down, he’s looking at the seat of the vehicle. He’s instinctively trying to get away,” Brown said. “ … He was in survival mode.”“People are going to hear what they want to hear, but it should be said and heard that his head was buried as he drove off,” Brown said. “There wasn’t any intention on his part to strike this officer. His intention was to get away.” 4596

The New York attorney general is trying to break up the National Rifle Association over allegations of mismanagement and the abuse of member money.Adam Winkler, a UCLA law professor who specializes in the Second Amendment, says this is just the start. The legal battle could go for another year or two.If the NRA dissolves at that point, it would have a huge impact on American politics, but that doesn't mean the end of the gun debate.“What happens is the resources of the NRA would be distributed in a way that is designed to match the donors' intent,” said Winkler. “And that means that money would go to gun rights organizations and would go towards fighting against gun control in most, most circumstances.”Winkler says the NRA dissolving isn't the only potential outcome. The attorney general is also seeking less drastic repercussions, like removing certain in-house lawyers or board members. That includes Wayne LaPierre, the executive vice president.We don't yet know exactly what evidence there is. Winkler says the AG’s case has at least one advantage, the NRA’s former public relations firm, Ackerman McQueen, is cooperating.“And so, the attorney general is going to have on her side an insider who's seen everything that's happened in the NRA for the last three decades,” said Winkler. “I think the NRA is in big trouble.”He says the lawsuit could also impact the November election by energizing pro-gun voters looking to support the NRA and the Republicans.Winkler says it's also likely to mean less NRA spending compared to 2016. 1552

The leaders of North and South Korea met Saturday for a second time, South Korea's presidency announced.North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and South Korean President Moon Jae-in held a surprise meeting at the Demilitarized Zone, the South Korean presidency said in a statement.The two leaders "exchanged their opinions" on among other things successfully carrying out a future US-North Korea summit, according to the statement. President Donald Trump canceled a June 12 summit with Kim this week, then told reporters Friday he's still open to a meeting. 558

The makers of the popular video game Fortnite have a big supporter in their corner as they go to battle against Apple - Microsoft.A few weeks ago, Epic Games introduced Epic Direct payments, a direct-payment plan for Apple's iOS and Google Play that bypasses the App Store.Apple said the service violated its guidelines, so they removed the game from the App Store.Epic, in return, took legal action. On Sunday, Microsoft issued a statement, which was tweeted out by Xbox boss Phil Spencer, that explained they were backing up Epic in their court battle because "Apple’s discontinuation of Epic’s ability to develop and support Unreal Engine for iOS or macOS will harm game creators and gamers." 703