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One of Biden's new coronavirus task force doctors floating the idea of a 4-6 week lockdown:“We could pay for a package right now to cover all of the lost wages for individual workers ... if we did that, then we could lockdown for 4 to 6 weeks."pic.twitter.com/zNmuQvPpIJ— Zack Guzman (@zGuz) November 11, 2020 317

On their surface, a lot polls got the 2016 election wrong. As late as October 23, 2016, an ABC News poll had Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by 12%.But pollsters say that polls like the one conducted by ABC News do not even tell the whole story.“National polls are very helpful in giving us a sense of who might win the popular vote. In that regard, 2016 polls were relatively accurate,” said Emily Goodman is a principal at EMC Research, a nationwide polling firm.Hilary Clinton won the popular vote by about 2.8 million votes or 2%. In the last week of the election, many polls had tightened to have Clinton winning by about 2 to 5 percent. Goodman says a lot of people don’t understand polls.“One of the most important things to know about polls is that, they’re just a point in time, it’s a snapshot,” she said. There are a few key things you should look for when it comes to polling, the first being you don’t win the presidency by winning the popular vote.“The path to the presidency is by winning 270 Electoral College votes and that is why the state by state polling is incredibly important,” said Goodman. So nationwide polling won’t tell you who will win. Instead, state by state polling is more helpful.There’s also a few other things you should look for if you see a poll on the news, social media or other places.“The first is timeline, when was it conducted? Are you looking at a poll that was very recent, or a poll that was conducted months ago? Who the poll is conducted among. So are you looking at a poll of adults, are you looking at a poll of registered voters, of likely voters, or some other subset of the population? The sample size, that is, how many people were actually included in the poll? That ultimately tells you what the margin of error is. How the poll was conducted, what was the methodology? Was it conducted on telephone and did those phones include landlines and cellphones? Was it conducted online, over text?” Goodman explains. One key thing there, how polling respondents are reached, and it’s one thing that a pollster who got the 2016 election right says is key.“I don’t want the public face, I want what you really think because your real opinions are what go in that voting booth with you, when nobody is looking," said Robert Cahaly, the lead pollster for the Trafalgar Group,In 2016, Trafalgar projected Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Florida for Donald Trump. He says in 2016, there was a group of hidden Trump supporters. He said it’s a result of what’s called the Social Desirability Bias.“When you speak to a live person on the phone, you tend, especially when you know they know who you are, you tend to give an answer to a question that you think will make you look best in the mind of the person you’re talking to versus your true feeling,” he said. Cahaley says to some people, being seen as a Trump supporter is so undesirable, they won’t tell the truth to people conducting polls on the phone. He’s seeing the same exact thing in 2020 he saw in 2016 and that traditional polling may not be accounting for this.However, Goodman says that the industry is expanding how to reach respondents.“What used to be the gold standard of telephone surveys, exclusively landlines, is no longer appropriate. Cellphones, but beyond just having someone just call up a voter on your cellphone, we’re also now including texting, emailing, that includes a link to take a survey online and using a mix of those methodologies really helps get a representative sample of likely voters,”Both pollsters do agree on one thing however, this election will come down to turn out.“A lot of this is really going to come down to turn out,” said Goodman. “This thing has never been a persuasion election, I’ve said that from the beginning, it’s a motivational election. Whichever side turns out their people is going to win this race, and it’s that simple,” said Cahaley. 3923

OAKLAND, Calif. (AP) — An orphaned mountain lion cub who was badly burned in a Northern California wildfire is being treated at the Oakland Zoo after being rescued. The zoo says a firefighter rescued the four- to six-week-old cub Wednesday from the Zogg Fire. The cub, who weighs less than 4 pounds, had his whiskers singed off and his paws badly burned. He was given antibiotics, pain medications and a milk formula for kittens. A vet at the zoo says he's eating on his own and acting “feisty," which are both promising signs of recovery. 547

ORLANDO, Fla. - A baby born at 22 weeks and weighing just 12 ounces is going home after spending six months at the Orlando Health Winnie Palmer Hospital for Women & Babies.Doctors said in a press release that baby Diana Peguero is the tiniest baby to ever survive and graduate from the hospital's NICU. Today, she weighs over 7 pounds and is currently thriving at home.According to the Orlando Sentinel, Diana's mother, Jomary Tavarez, was starting to dilate when she went in for a routine checkup in April at 20 weeks pregnant.Doctors then admitted Jomary to Winnie Palmer, and on Mother's Day, Diana was born weighing 12 ounces and was nine inches long.However, after examining her size and development, doctors believe Diana was younger than 22 weeks since gestational age is just an estimate.From May 10 to Nov. 6, Diana spent her first six months of her life in the hospital's NICU, but doctors said she never needed any life-saving surgeries.A few days after giving birth to Diana, doctors discharged Tavarez from the hospital, the newspaper reported. For six months, the couple traveled from their home in Ocala, Florida, to the hospital to see their daughter.According to the newspaper, doctors initially told Tavarez and her husband Federico that most babies, Diana's size, didn't survive the first three days, which Diana did.Diana's medical team continued to set more goals for Diana, which she continued to pass, the newspaper reported.By the end of June, her parents could carry her for the first time. In July, they got to hold her, the paper reported.Diana's parents are thrilled to finally take their first and only child home, especially for Federico, with her coming home a day after his birthday."It's a bittersweet day for us in the NICU," said Dr. Thais Queliz, a neonatologist at Orlando Health Winnie Palmer. "We're sad to see Diana leave since she and her parents have been with us for so long. But we're so proud of how far she's come and are happy for them to start their lives at home as a family of three."Diana is one of only 10 babies in the world recorded to have survived at her size and gestational age. 2148

OCEANSIDE, Calif. (CNS) - A 23-year-old man was behind bars Friday on suspicion of using a pellet gun to break the window of an Oceanside business that had put up a sign supporting the Black Lives Matter movement, police said.Steve Soto, 23, of Carlsbad allegedly drove by Bliss Tea & Treats, 301 Mission Ave., around 7:10 p.m. on June 4, then fired a pellet gun out the window of his vehicle, shattering a window at the business and causing more than ,800 in damage, Oceanside police Sgt. John McKean said.The business had a sign in the window at the time that read: "Black owned, we stand with you," McKean said.Surveillance video helped detectives identify the vehicle used in the crime and Soto, who was arrested Wednesday evening at an undisclosed location, the sergeant said.Soto was booked into the Vista Detention Facility around 7:40 p.m. Wednesday on suspicion of vandalism, attempting to dissuade a victim or witness from testifying and assault with a deadly weapon, according to jail records.The assault allegation stems from an incident during which Soto is accused of shooting a disabled man in the face with a pellet gun, McKean said.Soto was being held in lieu of ,000 bail pending arraignment, scheduled for July 31. 1250

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