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SAN DIEGO (KGTV) -- Economic forecasters are beginning to warn of a possible 2020 recession, and the impact they say will be felt in the Golden State, according to a new report by UCLA.“Don’t celebrate the 3.1% GDP growth estimate for the first quarter of 2019,” writes UCLA Anderson Professor Emeritus Edward Leamer. Leamer is quoted in a recent report produced by the UCLA Anderson School of Management. According to Leamer, the data actually increases the risk of a recession at some point in the next couple of years. Nationally, economic growth is expected to slow marginally to 2.1 percent in the fourth quarter of 2019 and 1.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2020. RELATED: Fed cuts interest rates for the first time since recessionThe good news is that the report predicts an economic rebound, growing again to 2.1 percent in the fourth quarter of 2021. So what picture does the report paint for California? One forecaster says you can expect California unemployment to rise modestly. “Weakness in housing as well as the slowing U.S. economy is reflected in a very modest growth rate in the U.S. in late 2020,” UCLA Anderson Forecast director Jerry Nickelsburg writes. “As a consequence, we expect California’s average unemployment rate to rise slightly to an average of 4.6% in the first quarter of 2021. For the entire year for 2020 and 2021, we expect average unemployment rates of 4.3% and 4.4%, respectively.”Meanwhile, personal income growth in the state of California is forecast at 2.9 percent in 2019. But the report warns that income growth is expected to slow to 1.9 percent by 2020.It’s not all bad news, however, income growth is expected to rise fairly quickly again in 2021, and is forecast to reach 2.1 percent by the end of the year. There's more good news. The Federal Reserve Wednesday lowered interest rates for the first time since the Great Recession in 2008 to help prevent an economic downturn. 1936
SAN DIEGO (KGTV) - For the second time in a month, Mexico is mobilizing its National Guard. According to our reporting partner, Televisa, 15,000 troops will be at the U.S. border Monday morning.Earlier in June, Mexican authorities announced they were sending hundreds of troops to it's southern border to keep migrants from entering from Guatemala. All this in an effort to curb rampant migration."It's exploded without a solution," Foreign Affairs National Security Analyst Ron Bee said. "It's the Mexican response to the threat of tariffs made by President Trump. if they don't do enough to stop Central Americans from entering their country, and traveling across Mexico and entering our country."Televisa tells 10News that 500 troops will patrol from Calexico to Tijuana. There will be a ceremony Sunday in Mexico City."If they [troops] come across illegal immigrants they'll have to apprehend them and take them to a facility to hold onto them until they decide what to do," Bee said, whether that's sending them back home or allowing them to apply for asylum.Mexico already ramped up pressure on migrants, by cutting funding to overflowing migrant shelters, "shelters in Mexico have less access to resources, they are receiving hundreds and hundreds more people than before. They are setting up tent cities," Alex Mensing, Project Coordinator with Pueblos Sin Fronteras, said.He added Mexico has taken other measures to discourage migration, "at this point even private bus companies are being pressured to not allow people onto buses without presenting valid government ID."Bee says this is all a symptom of a bigger problem, saying the U.S. needs to adjust how we handle the large flow of migrants, or we'll repeatedly see this issue. 1749

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) - For the first time in decades, the Port of San Diego is putting forth a comprehensive update to its master plan. A port spokesperson says the effort began in 2013 and has been a very thoughtful and open process. However, some residents in the county are just learning about the plan. In April, the Port published a more than 300-page draft of the master plan. "Ninety percent of the people that we speak to had no idea that this plan had been put forth. We have been out at the local grocery stores, going door-to-door, we've been posting here on the path because these are the places where we're going to reach the people who use this area the most," said Cameron Lilley, a lifelong Point Loma resident. Lilley has significant concerns with Shelter Island proposals, including:Up to 1600 new hotel rooms70,000 square feet of retail and restaurant spaceRemoving private and historic docks"Parking is a huge issue already, bringing more tourism to this area will negatively impact the residents who live and use it," said Lilley.On Tuesday she was joined by family and friends at La Playa Trail, encouraging people to give feedback to the Port by the July 31 deadline. They've created a group, Save Point Loma, to try and educate the community. "We're all out here united in this cause," said Lilley.The Port says it has been very transparent throughout the entire process, not only making the draft available to the public but holding community meetings. A spokesperson tells 10News they've used social media, the radio, and community paper ads to try and get people involved. And the Port says it wants to hear from the community moving forward. After receiving initial feedback, they will continue to hold community meetings and will later put forth a revised draft. The comment period for the Master Plan draft goes through July 31. Comments can be emailed to the Port of San Diego at PMPU@portofsandiego.org. Final approval of the plan isn't expected until late 2020. 1998
SAN DIEGO (KGTV) -- Fire crews worked to put out large flames at a home on the 4400 block of Park Boulevard Friday night. A 10News viewer shared video showing flames engulfing the yard of the home in University Heights, dangerously close to the pet grooming business next door.He told 10News people in the area broke the windows of the business to get to dogs inside, worried that the fire might spread to the business. Shortly before 10 p.m. crews were able to put out the flames. San Diego Gas and Electric crews were also on scene to turn off a small gas leak. 624
SAN DIEGO (KGTV) - High school students are managing a new normal as they apply for colleges."This is a hot topic," says Matt Hunt, a guidance counselor at Rancho Bernardo High School. "This is something that kids are concerned about, parents are concerned about, people are curious about."The biggest adjustment for the 2021 fall application period is the use of standardized tests, like the SAT or ACT.Because of coronavirus concerns, many testing centers have been unavailable, making it difficult for students to take a test. To level the playing field across county and state lines, schools are either eliminating a test requirement or making it optional.According to FairTest, the National Center for Fair and Open Testing, more than 1,600 colleges and universities have made those tests "optional" for admission in the upcoming school year. That means students are not required to submit a test score, but can if they choose. FairTest also says more than 60 schools have gone "test-blind." That means they will not use a test score to determine admission, even if a student puts it in the application.In California, the Cal State system says they will be test-blind in 2021. The UC Schools initially said they would be test-optional, but a court decision over the summer forced them to be test-blind. The UC schools also say they plan to eliminate traditional standardized tests by 2025, and will write their own admissions test.RELATED: University of Californai to Stop Using ACT, SAT through 2024Without tests, counselors say students need to focus on their grades and personal statements and essays to stand out."I would tell students to focus on answering those questions candidly," says Tracy Wilson, the Director of College and Career Readiness for Grossmont Union High School District. "They need to answer them with their own student voice, because if they are a student who has struggled with those opportunities, that's the place to share the 'why.'"Wilson also says to focus your search and only worry about the application standards for the schools you plan to apply. "Colleges want a variety of students," she says. "The academics are important, but it's not the only thing... Put yourself out there try do your best. I really feel like colleges are going to be very welcoming on their campuses next fall."Hunt agrees, saying it's important to stay on top of any changes that occur in the next few months. He tells students to stay in communication with your school counselor and the admissions offices where you plan to apply. "You're going to apply to a handful of schools, you'll see what happens," says Hunt. "But there's a school out there, and an opportunity out there for everyone. So remember that." 2735
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