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BEIJING, May 5 --  The economy is likely to expand 7 percent in the second quarter - up from the first quarter's 6.1 percent - even as it confronts the painful prospect of shedding industrial overcapacity, a top government think tank said Monday.    "Economic growth will pick up in the second quarter as the government's stimulus measures gradually take effect," the State Information Center (SIC) forecast.     "There has been preliminary success in arresting the economy's downward trend," it said, but did not mention any fallout from the global H1N1 flu alert.     But Zhu Baoliang, an SIC economist and one of the authors of the SIC report, said the economy will only be slightly affected by the H1N1 flu.     Annualized GDP growth sank to a decade's low in the first quarter, largely because of a collapse in export demand.     But analysts said the economy might have bottomed out since then as latest economic figures are increasingly upbeat.     The CLSA China Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), a gauge of manufacturing activity, rose to 50.1 in April, the first time it has been above 50 since last August, CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets said yesterday. A PMI reading above 50 indicates an expansion of the manufacturing sector, while a reading below 50 signals a contraction.     Also, the PMI index compiled by the Federation of Logistics and Purchasing rose for the fifth straight month in April to 53.5 percent, up 1.1 percentage points from a month earlier.     The positive economic signs sent stock markets up across Asia, with the mainland's Shanghai Composite Index rising 3.3 percent and Hong Kong's Hang Seng index 5.5 percent.     "The Chinese government has been extremely successful in stimulating investment," said Eric Fishwick, CLSA head of economic research. "We hope that firmer domestic demand, as government spending gains traction, will keep the PMI above 50 in the months to come."     The World Bank said in a report in early April that the Chinese economy is expected to bottom out by the middle of 2009. It also forecast China's economic growth at 6.5 percent for the year.     The International Monetary Fund also forecast last month that growth in China is expected to slow to about 6.5 percent this year.     Consumer spending held fast over the past months, despite looming unemployment pressure. About 2.68 million vehicles were sold in the first quarter, making the nation the world's largest auto market during the period.     Housing sales surged 23.1 percent by value while retail sales rose 15.9 percent in the first quarter, 3.6 percentage points higher than the same period a year earlier.     "Based on the clear uptrend in recent economic activity we believe the worst is already behind China in terms of economic growth," Sun Mingchun, chief China economist of Nomura International, wrote in a research note. Sun said China would achieve its 8 percent growth target this year, with a V-shaped growth trajectory.     But some analysts argue that the figures could be volatile and the economy has to deal with the structural problem of overcapacity.     "It's still too early to say the economy is experiencing a real recovery," said Zhu, the SIC economist. "Over the past months, local enterprises have been running down their inventories. Now they have to reduce overcapacity."

BEIJING, May 27 (Xinhua) -- China's State Council announced Wednesday further support policies, including expanded export credit insurance, tax breaks and more financial access, to help exporters. An executive meeting of the State Council, or Cabinet, also said the country would keep the yuan "basically stable" at a "reasonable and balanced" level to help exporters avoid exchange risks.     The meeting was presided over by Premier Wen Jiabao. This file photo shows the launch of the Jan Van Cent, a 12,000-tonnage multi-purposed oceangoing freight ship for an export order to the Netherlands, is held at the Yichang Shipyard, in Yichang, central China's Hubei Province, May 9, 2009    The government will provide 84 billion U.S. dollars worth of short-term export credit insurance to trading companies to help increase exports.     Preferential policies and tax breaks will mainly go to labor-intensive and high-tech industries to protect world market share.     Smaller companies would get more financing guarantees from financial institutions, as the government promised to allocate unspecified extra funding from the central budget.     Shrinking external demand that lead to export declines would remain "the biggest difficulty" facing the economy, participants to the meeting agreed.     They also called for coordinated efforts in expanding domestic demand and stabilizing exports, so as to reduce the impact of global financial crisis on China's foreign trade to the minimum.     China raised export rebates on some products after exports shrank on weakening overseas demand since the second half of 2008. For example, the government raised the tax rebate rate for textiles five times since August, most recently last month when the rate went from 15 percent to 16 percent. 

GUANGZHOU, May 30 (Xinhua) -- South China's Guangdong Province reported one suspected A/H1N1 flu case late Saturday.     The case involved a 23-year-old Chinese Venezuelan. The female college student left Venezuela Tuesday and flied to Guangzhou, Guangdong's capital, Wednesday via Paris, and her relative drove her home in Foshan City, the provincial health department said.     She took a rest at home after showing flu symptoms Thursday and was sent to Foshan No.1 People's Hospital Friday.     Early Saturday, the woman was tested positive for A/H1N1 flu by the Foshan Center of Disease Control and Prevention. The Provincial Center of Disease Control and Prevention reexamined Saturday noon and the result was also positive. The case needs further testing.     China Saturday reported three new influenza A/H1N1 cases, bringing to 24 the total number of confirmed cases on the Chinese mainland.     The one in the southeastern province of Fujian involved a local who studied in Canada. The other two in Beijing involved a Chinese American and a Chinese student who studied in the United States.     All the cases but one on the mainland were found shortly after they came from countries hard hit by the A/H1N1 flu epidemic. Seven were in Beijing, four in Shanghai, six in Guangdong, three in Fujian, and one each in Sichuan, Shandong, Zhejiang and Hunan.     Eight cases have been discharged from hospital by Saturday afternoon, according to the Ministry of Health (MOH).     China raised vigilance against influenza A/H1N1 Friday after a patient in southern Guangdong Province was declared the first case of local transmission on the mainland. Medical experts are investigating into and analyzing the local transmission.     The patient, a 24-year-old woman living in Guangdong's capital city of Guangzhou, was believed to be infected by a man from New York on Monday. Guangdong provincial department of health confirmed both as A/H1N1 flu cases Friday noon.     Her flu symptoms have eased, Yin Zhibiao, deputy president of the Guangzhou No. 8 People's Hospital, said Saturday. But as the mainland's first case of local transmission, she would likely stay longer in hospital, Yin added.

BEIJING, May 8 (Xinhua) -- China's top economic planner Friday announced details of the country's new oil pricing mechanism, for the first time after the new pricing system kicked in at the beginning of this year.     In a statement on its website, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) said China would adjust domestic fuel prices when global crude prices reported a daily fluctuation band of more than 4 percent for 22 working days in a row.     The commission said refiners would enjoy "normal" profit when global crude prices are below 80 U.S. dollars per barrel, but would face narrower profit margins when the crude prices rise above 80 U.S. dollars per barrel.     However, fuel prices would not go further up, or only be raised by a small margin, when crude prices rise above 130 U.S. dollars per barrel, and fiscal and tax tools would be used to ensure supplies, the NDRC said.     Light, sweet crude for June delivery rose 37 cents a barrel to settle at 56.71 U.S. dollars on the New York Mercantile Exchange Thursday after reaching a six-month high of 58.57 dollars.     Crude prices staged strong rally on news of upbeat economic data in the United States, rising more than 10 percent in two weeks.     The NDRC statement also came a day after it denied an online report claiming imminent price hike.     C1 Energy, an energy information website, Thursday reported that the Chinese government would raise fuel prices as of midnight Thursday, but said later the price adjustment had been canceled, with reasons unknown.     Xu Kunlin, deputy head of NDRC's pricing department, said the new oil pricing mechanism is not to be followed "word by word" without any flexibility, when asked whether the commission would soon adjust fuel prices at a press conference held in Beijing.     "There has been pressure to raise domestic fuel prices as crude prices continued to rise," Xu said, "however, the final decision will depend on developments in crude prices in coming days."     Friday's statement did not say how the global crude prices would be measured.     Xu declined to reveal details on the basket of crude prices for evaluating international price changes, and said such details would remain a secret in a bid to prevent speculation.     The NDRC said in the statement that the government would continue to control fuel prices at the current stage, because of insufficient market competition and imperfect market mechanisms.     However, fuel prices would eventually be determined by market forces only in the long run under the new pricing mechanism, which is aimed to bring in more market forces, said the NDRC.     China's fuel prices, with taxes included, are at a relatively lower level among major oil importers, said the NDRC.     Domestic fuel prices are lower than in Japan, the Republic of Korea, India, Mongolia, and many European countries, but higher than in oil exporters in the Middle East and than some cities in the United States, according to surveys by the NDRC.     China's retail fuel prices vary in different regions. Currently, gasoline 93, the most commonly used type of gas, sells for 5.56 yuan (81.8 U.S. cents) per liter in Beijing.

BEIJING, June 2 (Xinhua) -- Representatives from the Communist Party of China (CPC) and the ruling United Russia Party met Tuesday to exchange views on the international financial crisis.     "This is the first official and high-level dialogue between the Chinese and Russian ruling parties," said Wang Jiarui, head of the International Department of the CPC Central Committee of his meeting with United Russia Party's council presidium secretary Vyacheslav Volodin.     Wang and Volodin signed an agreement on party-to-party cooperation on later Tuesday. Chinese Vice President Xi Jinping attended the signing ceremony.     Xi hailed the Sino-Russian relationship when meeting with Volodin before the ceremony, saying that China would work with Russia to promote stable and healthy growth of the ties, in a bid to benefit the two nations and peoples. Chinese Vice President Xi Jinping (R) meets with Vyacheslav Volodin, vice chairman of the Russian State Duma, in Beijing, capital of China, June 2, 2009    Volodin, and vice-chairman of the Russian State Duma, said his party valued the cooperation with the CPC.     Volodin and his delegation were here on a visit from May 31 to June 3 at the invitation of the International Department of the CPC Central Committee.