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The University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation has been issuing frequent projections since March in an attempt to model the spread and impact of the coronavirus across the world.The models have been used by the CDC and White House coronavirus task force in an effort to better understand the potential number of deaths the coronavirus could cause.On Friday, the model added a new variable, one that could cause a steep decline of coronavirus deaths throughout the US. The IHME’s newest model, which predicts the number of coronavirus deaths in the US through the end of March, is now weighing the potential impact of vaccines on the virus.For those hoping for an immediate drop in hospitalizations and deaths caused by the coronavirus as soon as vaccinations begin later this month might be disappointed. The IHME's model shows the initial batch of vaccinations will have a relatively muted effect on deaths and hospitalizations initially. While by April 1, much of the general US population will likely not be fully vaccinated, many in the high-risk category should expect to vaccinated by then. How fast they get vaccinated will play a role in determining the number of coronavirus deaths in the US.As of Friday evening, there have been over 278,000 coronavirus-related deaths reported throughout the US, per Johns Hopkins University data. Without any vaccines reaching Americans, the IHME’s model projects a total of 548,000 would die from the coronavirus through April 1, meaning 270,000 deaths between now and then.If COVID-19 vaccines are distributed at expected levels, 9,000 lives would be saved by April 1, reducing the number of deaths between now and then to 261,000. But a rapid vaccine rollout – one that would vaccinate the high-risk population and begin to vaccinate the general population by the spring -- would result in 250,000 deaths between now and April 1.“Mass scale-up of vaccination in 2021 means we have a path back to normal life, but there are still a few rough months ahead,” said Dr. Christopher Murray, IHME director. “We must be vigilant in protecting ourselves at least through April, when, as our projections indicate, vaccines will begin to have an impact.”In the meantime, Murray says universal mask wearing and social distancing will save more lives than a potential vaccine in the next four months.“Especially in the Northern Hemisphere, it’s crucial for governments to impose or re-impose mandates that limit gatherings and require masks. Where the winter surge is driving spikes in infections, there will be many people who can still become infected and possibly die before the vaccine is fully rolled out,” said Murray.To see the IHME’s state-by-state projections for deaths, hospitalizations and cases, clickhere. 2790

The woman involved in the domestic violence charge against NFL linebacker Reuben Foster said the Washington Redskins' decision to pick him up just days after his arrest felt like "a slap in the face.""I just couldn't believe somebody picked him up in less than -- how many hours?" Foster's ex-girlfriend, Elissa Ennis, said Thursday on ABC's Good Morning America, or GMA. "Like, I was shocked."The interview came more than a week after Foster, 24, then a linebacker for the San Francisco 49ers, was arrested and charged with one count of first-degree misdemeanor domestic violence in Tampa, Florida. Ennis, 28, reported that Foster pushed and slapped her during an encounter on November 24 at a hotel, police said.Ennis' attorney, Adante Pointer, released photos of Ennis' injuries after the assault."After having endured this relationship and then watching her name be tarnished in the press and then watching this person, from her perspective, go unpunished, she wanted to make sure that her side of the story got out," Pointer said.Ennis told GMA it was the third time an incident like this one had happened, including a February case in Los Gatos, California, that resulted in a criminal charge against Foster that was later dismissed and another occasion in October when "neighbors called the police."CNN reached out Thursday to Foster for comment. He has not commented publicly since the November arrest.The 49ers released Foster the morning after the latest incident. Days later, the Redskins picked him up on waivers.The NFL said Foster has been placed on the commissioner's exempt list, which means he cannot practice or play with the team as the league reviews his arrest.Still, the move to immediately hire a player twice arrested for domestic violence sparked widespread outrage for a league that has struggled to deal with several players committing violence against women. Another NFL player, Kansas City Chiefs running back Kareem Hunt, was released last week after video showed him pushing and kicking a woman in a Cleveland hotel.  2061

The University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation now projects that 67,000 American lives would be saved between now and December 1 by near universal wearing of masks.The IHME released the updated model on Thursday. As part of the update, the IHME said that four states, Arizona, Florida, Mississippi, and South Carolina, have hit an important metric of a daily death rate of eight per one million residents, and that those states should re-impose statewide closures of non-essential businesses.The IHME’s coronavirus projections have been frequently cited in the past by the White House’s coronavirus task force. The group uses state data along with other metrics to create projections on the number of coronavirus-related deaths throughout the US.The model projects with inconsistent use of masks, the US death toll for the coronavirus will be up to 295,000 by December 1, an increase from the current figure of 158,000, per Johns Hopkins University data. The IHME’s projections drops considerably to 228,000 if masks are worn universally outside of the home.IHME director Dr. Christopher Murray said at a news conference on Thursday that mask wearing mandates work, but communities also respond when they see cases are spreading.“People do respond to the circumstances in their community,” Murray said. “Mandates have an important effect.”One thing the model does not take into account is the use of therapeutics of a possible vaccine. Murray said that the IHME is closely monitoring the effectiveness of two potential therapeutics – remdesivir and dexamethasone – and may adjust future models as more is learned about those drugs.The model expects the number of coronavirus-related deaths to ebb and flow into the fall, but begin to increase by November. "November is a month we expect the spread to increase due to seasonality," Murray said. We are expecting considerable daily deaths. That pushes up our projections."“We expect it rise later in the fall,” Murray added.One cause for concern comes at the end of November when families begin to travel for holidays such as Thanksgiving.Murray said that while mask-wearing is not necessary when around family members of the same household, he said mask-wearing may be necessary for holiday gatherings. Murray said his family is taking the recommendation one step further, and is simply not gathering with extended relatives this fall.What’s built into the IHME’s projection is that a number of states will need to implement stricter closures in order to slow the spread. As part of the IHME’s recommendation, states implement closures of non-essential businesses when there is a threshold of eight deaths a day per million. Also part of the modeling is based on 50% of schools being closed in each state for the upcoming year. Murray said with many schools opening or implementing hybrid models, more will be learned in the coming weeks on how easily the virus spreads within schools.Recent measures in Arizona, California, Florida, and Texas has allowed a small decline in cases, but deaths in those states have not dropped off, according to Murray.“We have been seeing cases peaking and hospitalizations peaking and deaths not quite yet peaking, but we expect them to peak in the near future but we don’t expect a sharp decline," Murray said.To see a state-by-state breakdown of the IHME’s projections, click here. 3403

The smoke from dozens of wildfires in the western United States is stretching clear across the country — and even pushing into Mexico, Canada and Europe. While the dangerous plumes are forcing people inside along the West Coast, residents thousands of miles away in the East are seeing unusually hazy skies and remarkable sunsets.The wildfires racing across tinder-dry landscape in California, Idaho, Oregon and Washington are extraordinary, but the long reach of their smoke isn’t unprecedented. While there are only small pockets in the southeastern U.S. that are haze free, experts say the smoke poses less of a health concern for those who are farther away.The sun was transformed into a perfect orange orb as it set over New York City on Tuesday. Photographs of it sinking behind the skyline and glinting through tree leaves flooded social media. On Wednesday, New Jersey residents described a yellow tinge to the overcast skies, and weather forecasters were kept busy explaining the phenomenon and making predictions as to how long the conditions would last.On the opposite coast, air quality conditions were among some of the worst ever recorded. Smoke cloaked the Golden Gate Bridge and left Portland and Seattle in an ashy fog, as crews have exhausted themselves trying to keep the flames from consuming more homes and even wider swaths of forest.Satellite images showed that smoke from the wildfires has traveled almost 5,000 miles (8,000 kilometers) to Britain and other parts of northern Europe, scientists said Wednesday.The current weather system, which favors a westerly wind across the higher levels of the atmosphere, is to blame for the reach of the smoke, experts explained.“We always seem, at times, to get the right combination of enough smoke and the upper level jet stream to line up to bring that across the country, so we’re just seeing this again,” said Matt Solum with the National Weather Service’s regional operations center in Salt Lake City, Utah. “It’s definitely not the first time this has happened.”There could be some easing of the haze this weekend as a storm system is expected to move into the Pacific Northwest and could affect the conditions that helped the smoke travel across the country. But Solum said there’s always a chance for more smoke and haze to shift around.“Just due to all the wildfires that are going on, this is likely going to continue for a while,” he said. “You might have ebbs and flows of that smoke just depending on how the upper level winds set up.”Kim Knowlton, a senior scientist with the Natural Resources Defense Council in New York City, said she woke up Wednesday to a red sunrise and more haze.She said millions of people who live beyond the flames can end up dealing with diminished air quality as it’s not uncommon for wildfire smoke to travel hundreds of miles.Although the health impacts are reduced the farther and higher into the atmosphere the smoke travels, Knowlton and her colleagues said the resulting haze can exacerbate existing problems like asthma and add to ozone pollution. 3070

The Supreme Court decided on Monday that they will not reexamine a doctrine that protects law enforcement and government officials from being sued over their actions while on the job.The doctrine, which the justices created nearly 50 years ago, gives "qualified immunity" for law enforcement officers, which protects them from frivolous lawsuits CNN reported.The decision comes amid protests over the death of George Floyd, who died while in police custody in Minneapolis.According to CBS News, the courts were to hear one case about a man in Tennessee that was bitten by a police dog, although he was sitting on the ground with his hands raised.NPR reports that two justices, Sonia Sotomayor and Clarence Thomas, have both been skeptical of the doctrine. 763