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BEIJING, May 5 --  The economy is likely to expand 7 percent in the second quarter - up from the first quarter's 6.1 percent - even as it confronts the painful prospect of shedding industrial overcapacity, a top government think tank said Monday.    "Economic growth will pick up in the second quarter as the government's stimulus measures gradually take effect," the State Information Center (SIC) forecast.     "There has been preliminary success in arresting the economy's downward trend," it said, but did not mention any fallout from the global H1N1 flu alert.     But Zhu Baoliang, an SIC economist and one of the authors of the SIC report, said the economy will only be slightly affected by the H1N1 flu.     Annualized GDP growth sank to a decade's low in the first quarter, largely because of a collapse in export demand.     But analysts said the economy might have bottomed out since then as latest economic figures are increasingly upbeat.     The CLSA China Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), a gauge of manufacturing activity, rose to 50.1 in April, the first time it has been above 50 since last August, CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets said yesterday. A PMI reading above 50 indicates an expansion of the manufacturing sector, while a reading below 50 signals a contraction.     Also, the PMI index compiled by the Federation of Logistics and Purchasing rose for the fifth straight month in April to 53.5 percent, up 1.1 percentage points from a month earlier.     The positive economic signs sent stock markets up across Asia, with the mainland's Shanghai Composite Index rising 3.3 percent and Hong Kong's Hang Seng index 5.5 percent.     "The Chinese government has been extremely successful in stimulating investment," said Eric Fishwick, CLSA head of economic research. "We hope that firmer domestic demand, as government spending gains traction, will keep the PMI above 50 in the months to come."     The World Bank said in a report in early April that the Chinese economy is expected to bottom out by the middle of 2009. It also forecast China's economic growth at 6.5 percent for the year.     The International Monetary Fund also forecast last month that growth in China is expected to slow to about 6.5 percent this year.     Consumer spending held fast over the past months, despite looming unemployment pressure. About 2.68 million vehicles were sold in the first quarter, making the nation the world's largest auto market during the period.     Housing sales surged 23.1 percent by value while retail sales rose 15.9 percent in the first quarter, 3.6 percentage points higher than the same period a year earlier.     "Based on the clear uptrend in recent economic activity we believe the worst is already behind China in terms of economic growth," Sun Mingchun, chief China economist of Nomura International, wrote in a research note. Sun said China would achieve its 8 percent growth target this year, with a V-shaped growth trajectory.     But some analysts argue that the figures could be volatile and the economy has to deal with the structural problem of overcapacity.     "It's still too early to say the economy is experiencing a real recovery," said Zhu, the SIC economist. "Over the past months, local enterprises have been running down their inventories. Now they have to reduce overcapacity."

BEIJING, June 8 (Xinhua) -- The new alliance between Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton Ltd. might lead to a monopoly operation and China should be prepared for anti-monopoly measures, warned an expert.     Mei Xinyu, an economist with the Ministry of Commerce (MOC), told Xinhua Monday that China should closely watch the joint venture process of the two mining giants and be ready to work with other countries to curb market manipulation when necessary, with the help of the anti-monopoly law.     Rio Tinto scrapped the proposed 19.5 billion U.S. dollars of investment by Aluminum Corp. of China, or Chinalco, on Friday.     The company announced a cooperative venture with BHP Billiton, which would pay Rio Tinto 5.8 billion U.S. dollars to set up a joint venture to run the iron ore resources of both companies in west Australia.     It was "something other than economic concern", said Zhang Yansheng, director of the Institute of Foreign Trade of the National Development and Reform Commission.     Almost half of China's iron ore needed to be imported, more than half of which was imported from Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton, according to Shan of CISA.     Colin Barnett, premier of Western Australia, told Australian media last Friday China was not on the list of approvals that the two companies needed to obtain.     Internationally they would need the approval of the European Union and possibly the U.S. Justice Department, apart from investigations at nation and state level, he said.     Also, Zhang Junsheng, director of the WTO Research Institute at the University of International Business and Economics in Beijing, said China might not have a say on the issue, as neither Rio Tintoor BHP Billiton had an affiliated company in China.

MACAO, July 14 (Xinhua) -- Up to 123 candidates from various civil groups in Macao to participate in the 4th Legislative Assembly Election of the Special Administrative Region (SAR) will vie for 12 directly-elected seats in the Assembly, the Macao Post Daily reported on Tuesday.     A total of 16 groups completed their registration procedures over the past six weeks for joining the SAR's direct legislative election which was scheduled to take place on September 20, according to the daily.     The SAR's legislature has 29 seats, 12 of which are directly elected and 10 indirectly elected while the rest will be appointed by the SAR's chief executive.     Registered candidacy commissions could submit their political manifestoes and lists of candidates to the authorities before Monday. In accordance with the law, the commissions need to acquire a minimum of 300 endorsements from registered voters to be accepted as a legitimate competitor in the upcoming election.     The officially verified lists of the candidates will be announced on July 28 at the earliest.

ROME, July 2 (Xinhua) -- Chinese President Hu Jintao's forthcoming visit to Italy ahead of the G8 summit paves the way for stronger bilateral ties, an Italian expert told Xinhua in an interview.     Luca La Bella, a China analyst with Rome's International Studies Center, said that in the past decades, political, economic and cultural relations between Italy and China have improved. "Chinese President Hu Jintao's visit to Italy will reinforce this strategic collaboration," he said.     Hu will attend a meeting between the leaders of the Group of Eight (G8) and emerging economies from July 8 to 10 in L'Aquila.     Before the G8 summit, he will pay a state visit to Italy from July 5 to 8 at the invitation of Italian President Giorgio Napolitano. After the G8 meeting, the Chinese leader will visit Portugal from July 10 to 11.     China-Italy ties have maintained a sound momentum of rapid development, especially since 2004, when the two countries forged the first all-round strategic partnership to boost political and economic cooperation, La Bella said.     "The Italian Culture Year in China of 2006 was very successful," La Bella said. "Institutional exchange and business ties have increased. Reciprocal awareness of each other's culture and history is now greater."     The Italian firms in China enjoy Chinese government's support, the expert said, "Trade exchanges have increased. Italy imports from China technological goods, and exports Italian fashions and brands to China."     The two presidents will surely discuss in their meeting the upcoming Chinese Year of Culture in Italy, scheduled for 2010. It will be China's turn this time to be culturally, economically and politically present in Italy, La Bella said.     Numerous events are planned for the Chinese Year in Italy, which marks celebrations of the 40th anniversary of diplomatic relations between the two countries.     It will be an opportunity for high level political, economic and cultural exchanges between Chinese and Italian leaders and industry representatives.     According to La Bella, fostering bilateral ties with China is of crucial importance to Italy.     China and Italy are well-tuned politically as well, he added. "Italy pursues the one-China policy and is a front runner in lifting the arms embargo against China," he said.

BEIJING, May 11 (Xinhua) -- China's State Council Monday published a guideline to maintain current agricultural development and promote income for farmers.     The guideline was issued on the Chinese central government's official Web portal www.gov.cn.     It consists of 22 items in eight parts, calling for more efforts to expand domestic demand, promote exports and stabilize grains' prices.     The guideline calls for more support for spring sowing, including pest control, guarding against natural disasters and science and technology services.     It also stresses the importance of granting subsidies to farmers and setting grain prices.

来源：资阳报