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When experts look at the economy and its rebound, they go through an alphabet soup of letters, with a “V” shape recovery being the best-case scenario. It’s a fast decline with a fast recovery. Letters like “W” or “L” mean a much slower and painful path forward.A resurgence of more COVID-19 cases is shifting the likely shape of our economic recovery, and having economists evaluate the likelihood of a recovery in the shape of the more dreaded letters.“The fact that the virus has increased in a number of states shows that it is still very much a threat not only to one’s health but the economy,” said Michelle Meyer, who heads U.S. Economics at Bank of America. “The initial stage of the recovery was quite robust. It felt quite ‘V’ like, the economy was digging its way out of what was a very deep hole.”According to Bank of America, about a third of the jobs lost during the pandemic have been recovered. However, the recovery has slowed down into more of a “U” shape, and now data is showing a stall with concern of a higher chance of a “W” or “L” shape recovery.“The ‘W’ trajectory would be the worst-case scenario. That would show real fragility on the economy if we dipped back into a recession,” added Meyer.Experts say it would lead even higher unemployment, and more permanent job loss and business closures. In addition, to come out of a “W” or “L” shape recovery, we would need even more stimulus money from the federal government, which may not even improve the economic downturn as much as it did the first time.“Stimulus in Washington provides a really nice band-aid and I think it helped tremendously in the first stage of this recovery but at the end of the day, we need the economy to fundamentally improve,” said Meyer.The good news is unless there is a significant or full shutdown again, a “W” shape recovery is still less likely to occur than a “U” shape.“Our analysis projects that a 'U' shape recovery with rather steep losses and growth this year and rather flat next year and then recovering subsequently is the most likely outcome,” said David Turkington, the Senior Vice President at State Street Associates.A recent State Street study based on 100 years of historical data shows that the U.S. still has 30.1% chance of a “U” recovery, and a combined 24.4% chance of a “W” or “L” shape recovery which include stagflation and depression outcomes.“The real economy I think is what determines the recovery and how that plays forward,” said Turkington.The real economy is jobs, businesses and consumer spending. Providing stability there could determine which way the economy goes. 2615

WINTER HAVEN, Fla. — The Polk County Sheriff's Office is conducting a death investigation after an Uber driver shot and killed a man early Tuesday morning.During a news conference, Sheriff Grady Judd said that a bartender and patron at the Grove Lounge on US Hwy 27 in Dundee called for an Uber when they realized a young woman was in no condition to drive.As they waited for the Uber to arrive, the patron, Jessica, and her boyfriend, 34-year-old Jason Boek, were texting back and forth about him picking her up from the bar. When he refused, Jessica told him that she had found a ride and didn't need him to pick her up; in which he later replied after arguing with her:"I'm going to f***ing beat the f*** out of the Uber driver"Once the Uber driver, 38-year-old Robert Westlake, arrived at the bar Jessica put the intoxicated young woman in the car. Boek began following the Hyundai Elantra .thinking Jessica was inside.As the two continued on Dundee Road, Boek approached Westlake's Hyundai from behind and then abruptly passed and pulled in front of it.After jumping out of his F-250 pickup truck and approaching Westlake he yelled:"You know I have a pistol? Want me to shoot you?"Westlake, who is a concealed weapon permit holder and just finished police academy, reached into the pocket of the driver door, retrieved a handgun and shot Boek once in the chest. He then called 911 and spoke in "police lingo" and told them he had shot a man after he had threatened him. He also began lifesaving measures.Dashcam video shows moments leading up to shooting 1642

When 4-year-old Mateo forgot his favorite toy, Bear, in San Diego during a recent trip, employees of a local hotel made sure Bear had a good time in America’s Finest City.Mateo and his parents visited San Diego earlier this month. They didn’t realize they left Bear in their hotel room at the Hyatt Regency Mission Bay. Employees were able to find Bear, but made sure he enjoyed his extended vacation in San Diego before sending him back to Los Angeles. Bear enjoyed the hotel pool and water slide, lunch, and the spa before his trip back home. Hotel employees took photos of Bear’s adventures and sent him back home to his family, along with a few goodies for Mateo.Mateo and his family are relatives of 10News reporter Melissa Mecija. 744

When 13-year-old Hania Aguilar?is laid to rest in North Carolina on Saturday her father will be nearly 3,000 miles away.The US State Department has denied a temporary visa for Noé Aguilar to travel from Guatemala to attend services for his teenage daughter, according to the father's attorney."I had hoped they would find it in their hearts to let me be there for my daughter's funeral," Aguilar told CNN in a brief phone interview Friday."It's very sad. She was my princess. She will always be my princess."Immigration attorney Naimeh Salem said US embassy officials in Guatemala denied the temporary visa on grounds that Aguilar "didn't have enough ties to his home country, Guatemala.""That is not true," she said. "He has family there and his own business." 774

While the calls to defund police departments continue, there are some major cities that have already had success in changing police involvement in certain scenarios.That includes programs that limit police interaction and bring in proper reinforcements in situations where mental health is a primary factor."A police officer, a paramedic and a social worker in one vehicle in response to mental health crises as one unit, so they're not waiting for the social worker to arrive or they're not waiting for the paramedic to come," said Kurtis Young, Social Work Director at Parkland Health & Hospital System.Young is talking about cooperation with Dallas police to bring specialized mental health treatment to 911 emergencies. It’s been in place since 2018.It’s critical because people with untreated mental illness are 16 times more likely to be killed during a police encounter. And at least one in four deadly law enforcement encounters involve an individual with serious mental illness.Our partners at Newsy found since January, the "right care" team has handled more than 6,000 calls. Less than 4% of those calls resulted in an arrest.Also, "quality of life" citations for things like disorderly conduct and public intoxication have dropped.The program is an alternative to policing, but at the same time, Young says it doesn't work without police.“We are a partnership with the police department,” he said. “And that's such an integral piece of it that we're not just social workers out there going house to house and taking 911 calls ourselves, you know. We have been folded into the system and very much welcomed by the police department."A similar program in Eugene, Oregon, has been around for more than 30 years and responds to about 24,000 calls annually.The CAHOOTS co-response team says it has never had a “serious injury or death that their team was responsible for.” 1891

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