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The news out of El Paso is devastating. I'm heartbroken for the victims and their families. Far too many communities have suffered through tragedies like this already. We must act now to end our country's gun violence epidemic.— Elizabeth Warren (@ewarren) August 3, 2019 293

The polling industry has a lot on the line heading into Tuesday's midterm election.Critics blamed pollsters when voters were caught off guard by Donald Trump's election in 2016. Old cries of "don't believe the polls" became fevered shouts. And the president has encouraged distrust by calling certain polls "fake" and claiming they are used to "suppress" the vote.Although there is no evidence to suggest that is true, there is persistent and widespread suspicion about polling, according to, you guessed it, a McClatchy-Marist poll. And it exists on both sides, albeit in different forms."I think Democrats may have felt let down by the polls but don't think it was an intentional error. I think many Republicans believe the polling errors of 2016 were intentional," GOP pollster and co-founder of Echelon Insights Kristen Soltis Anderson told CNN.So can the industry regain trust?Since 2016 there's been a whole lot of self-reflection in the polling world. Pollsters have tweaked their techniques; pundits have become more cautious when talking about polls; and news outlets have conducted some fascinating experiments.On Tuesday, all the efforts are being put to the test."Some pollsters would disagree with this, but the way that the public generally views whether or not polling is accurate is whether or not it gets the results of the election right," CNN analyst Harry Enten said on "Reliable Sources.""I'm not necessarily sure that's fair," Enten said, "but I do think that there is more pressure on pollsters this year to get it right given the president's rhetoric and given what happened in 2016."Many, though not all, 2016 polls underestimated support for Trump. This effect was particularly pronounced at the state level, where there were embarrassing "misses," showing Hillary Clinton with safe leads in states Trump actually carried.Most national polls accurately showed Clinton winning the popular vote. But reporters and commentators made lots of mistakes in their interpretations of the polls. Readers and viewers did, too. Many people discounted the margin and other factors and made faulty assumptions that Trump would lose to Clinton.There were other problems, too. Predictive features on websites gained lots of traffic before the election but caused lots of consternation afterward. HuffPost's model infamously showed Clinton with a 98 percent chance of winning. "We blew it," the site admitted afterward.But just as importantly, HuffPost's Natalie Jackson tried to explain why.Other news outlets have also tried to be more transparent and remind voters of what polls cannot convey.In special elections since 2016, Democrats have repeatedly outperformed polls of their races.The top example was the Virginia governors' race. "Ralph Northam was favored by three points. He ended up winning by nine," Enten said.But past outcomes are not an indicator of future results."I think many pollsters and forecasters have tried to be much more intentional about explaining uncertainty and being humble about what data can and can't tell us," Anderson said. "Because I think there was a big sense that in 2016, there was more certainty conveyed than may have been justified by the available data."So political pros and reporters are communicating poll results differently this time. Time magazine's Molly Ball, who has a no-predictions rule for herself, said that even people who do make predictions are adding more caveats: There's "less of the, 'Well, the needle shows this' and more of, 'Here's what it doesn't show, here's what we should always remember can happen about probabilities.'"Early voting has been explosive in the midterms, indicating above-average enthusiasm among both Democrats and Republicans. Pollsters have to make assumptions about turnout when contacting "likely voters," and this is a difficult election to forecast.The 2018 electorate is "a universe that doesn't exist yet," Democratic pollster Margie Omero said. "I mean, people don't know whether they're going to vote, some people."They may tell a pollster that they're sure to vote, but never make it to the ballot box. Or they might change who they're voting for.Conversely, certain subsets of voters may have a big impact on the final results without really showing up in the pre-election polling. If pollsters assume relatively low youth turnout, but lots of young people vote for the first time, that could cause big surprises in certain races.The vast majority of people who are called by pollsters decline to participate, so the researchers have to make a huge number of phone calls, bend over backwards to reach a representative sample of people, and weight their results accordingly.Some polls are higher quality than others. Most news outlets tend to favor live interviewers, as opposed to computerized systems, and a mix of landline and cell phone calls. But some outlets are wading into web-based polling. CNN's polling standards preclude reporting on web polls.This fall The New York Times pulled back the curtain by conducting "live polling" and publishing the results in real time, call by call. Working with Siena College, the surveyors made 2,822,889 calls and completed 96 polls of House and Senate races."We wanted to demystify polling for people," said Nate Cohn of The Times' Upshot blog."From our point of view, it's almost a miracle how accurate polls usually are, given all the challenges," Cohn said in an interview with CNN.He emphasized that polls are "very fuzzy things." And the real-time polling showed this to the public. The researchers sought to interview about 500 people for each race that was examined.In Iowa's fourth congressional district, for example, 14,636 calls resulted in 423 interviews.The results showed the incumbent, far-right congressman Steve King, with 47% support, and his Democratic challenger J.D. Scholten with 42%.The Times characterized this as a "slight edge" for King, with lots of room for error. "The margin of sampling error on the overall lead is 10 points, roughly twice as large as the margin for a single candidate's vote share," the Times explained on its website.Cohn's final pre-election story noted that "even modest late shifts among undecided voters or a slightly unexpected turnout could significantly affect results."That's the kind of language that lots of polling experts are incorporating into their stories and live shots, especially in the wake of the 2016 election."With polling, you never actually get to the truth," Cohn said. "You inch towards it, and you think you end up within plus or minus 5 points of it at the end."As Enten put it, "polls are tools," not meant to be perfect. But that message needs to be reinforced through the news media. 6753

The National Rifle Association and a mall in Illinois stepped in for a boy who was left in tears after a mall Santa told him he couldn't have a Nerf gun for Christmas.According to USA Today, the Dec. 6 exchange between the mall Santa at the Harlem Irving Plaza in Norridge, Illinois, and Sabella DeCarlo's son Michael went viral last week.In the video, Michael burst into tears after being told no several times by the mall Santa when he asked for a Nerf gun for Christmas, USA Today reported.In an interview with Fox News, Sabella told the network she was shocked by Santa's response, thinking he may have misheard her son, and then thought it was a joke.But Santa's response was still no.After hearing about what had happened, officials with the Harlem Irving Plaza sent a Santa out to Michael's home to gift him with a Nerf gun.In a Facebook post, the mall and the third-party Santa company were "distraught and deeply apologetic" about what transpired between Michael and the Santa and wanted to make sure Michael wasn't sad."We are happy to report that the "real" Santa visited the boy at his home today to bring him a nerf gun! We hope we restored Christmas magic to this boy and his family with Santa's special visit," the mall wrote in a Facebook post. 1268

The only thing that scares salon owner Shelly Albro more than the empty chairs inside her Portsmouth, New Hampshire barbershop is the silence that has consumed this place recently.Having lost 30 percent of her business because of COVID-19, Albro found herself in the same position as thousands of other small business owners across the country, desperate for new streams of revenue, while at the same time, having to keep her customers and staff safe.“I just knew that if I didn’t get creative we weren’t going to make any money,” she said. “Business was down.”Albro owns Gents Barbershop, which she recently opened.On a particularly depressing day during the shutdown, she had been searching through old photos when she stumbled upon an old black and white picture from the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic. A few barbers stood wearing masks as they cut clients' hair, but instead of cutting hair inside a building, the barbers were standing out on the sidewalk in front of their store.She had found her solution.“When I saw this picture I was like, ‘I gotta do this outside!’ For those who are like me who are nervous to go inside,” she said.Unsure of how the idea would go over with customers, Albro first started cutting hair outside on her days off. Her schedule quickly booked up, as this upbeat stylist with a slight New England accent realized she’d struck a chord with her customers who were still too nervous to get their haircut inside a barbershop during COVID-19.And for Albro, who suffers from an autoimmune disease herself, the whole thing is personal.“There are a lot of people who have anxiety about coming inside a building. It doesn’t matter how much we clean or sanitize; they’re feeling anxious about coming inside,” she said. “Because I’m high risk, I get why people are reluctant.”Gents Barbershop isn't alone in moving hair cutting services outside. Back in July, California moved all salons outdoors to deal with a sudden spike in cases.Beth Milito with the National Federation of Independent Businesses is telling small business owners to follow Albro’s lead.“It’s been much more challenging than people anticipated back in March,” Milito explained.As small business owners continue to navigate an economic recession, Milito says that creativity and ingenuity are keys to a successful rebound, especially when more than 100,000 small businesses have already closed since March.“Looking at this as a long-term investment, something you can see into the future,” she added.As for Albro, she knows that like a good haircut this trend may fade away, but for now, she’s just trying to make a much deeper impression.“I just want to help,” she said. 2669

The oldest American survivor of the Japanese air attack on Pearl Harbor has died.  Ray Chavez was 106.Gary Bobileff of the Spirit of Freedom Foundation told 10News, "He was a humble man and he was truly a patriot."Seaman first class Ray Chavez was assigned to the Navy minesweeper U.S.S. Condor; it was on continuous duty for the next nine days in the waters around Pearl Harbor.  Bobileff described his focus as two-fold."Number one; love of country; that is of paramount important. Number two: Be strong, be bold, be brave."Chavez has often attended commemorative events in San Diego and in Hawaii.  A few months ago Ray Chavez was invited to the White House."The president acknowledged him, shook hands."Richard Rovsek, also from the Spirit of Liberty Foundation of Rancho Santa Fe, recalls the moment."It was very emotional; the president was charming as he can be. Ray announced he did not vote for him, by the way."The White House tweeted about the loss Wednesday. 993

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