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On their surface, a lot polls got the 2016 election wrong. As late as October 23, 2016, an ABC News poll had Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by 12%.But pollsters say that polls like the one conducted by ABC News do not even tell the whole story.“National polls are very helpful in giving us a sense of who might win the popular vote. In that regard, 2016 polls were relatively accurate,” said Emily Goodman is a principal at EMC Research, a nationwide polling firm.Hilary Clinton won the popular vote by about 2.8 million votes or 2%. In the last week of the election, many polls had tightened to have Clinton winning by about 2 to 5 percent. Goodman says a lot of people don’t understand polls.“One of the most important things to know about polls is that, they’re just a point in time, it’s a snapshot,” she said. There are a few key things you should look for when it comes to polling, the first being you don’t win the presidency by winning the popular vote.“The path to the presidency is by winning 270 Electoral College votes and that is why the state by state polling is incredibly important,” said Goodman. So nationwide polling won’t tell you who will win. Instead, state by state polling is more helpful.There’s also a few other things you should look for if you see a poll on the news, social media or other places.“The first is timeline, when was it conducted? Are you looking at a poll that was very recent, or a poll that was conducted months ago? Who the poll is conducted among. So are you looking at a poll of adults, are you looking at a poll of registered voters, of likely voters, or some other subset of the population? The sample size, that is, how many people were actually included in the poll? That ultimately tells you what the margin of error is. How the poll was conducted, what was the methodology? Was it conducted on telephone and did those phones include landlines and cellphones? Was it conducted online, over text?” Goodman explains. One key thing there, how polling respondents are reached, and it’s one thing that a pollster who got the 2016 election right says is key.“I don’t want the public face, I want what you really think because your real opinions are what go in that voting booth with you, when nobody is looking," said Robert Cahaly, the lead pollster for the Trafalgar Group,In 2016, Trafalgar projected Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Florida for Donald Trump. He says in 2016, there was a group of hidden Trump supporters. He said it’s a result of what’s called the Social Desirability Bias.“When you speak to a live person on the phone, you tend, especially when you know they know who you are, you tend to give an answer to a question that you think will make you look best in the mind of the person you’re talking to versus your true feeling,” he said. Cahaley says to some people, being seen as a Trump supporter is so undesirable, they won’t tell the truth to people conducting polls on the phone. He’s seeing the same exact thing in 2020 he saw in 2016 and that traditional polling may not be accounting for this.However, Goodman says that the industry is expanding how to reach respondents.“What used to be the gold standard of telephone surveys, exclusively landlines, is no longer appropriate. Cellphones, but beyond just having someone just call up a voter on your cellphone, we’re also now including texting, emailing, that includes a link to take a survey online and using a mix of those methodologies really helps get a representative sample of likely voters,”Both pollsters do agree on one thing however, this election will come down to turn out.“A lot of this is really going to come down to turn out,” said Goodman. “This thing has never been a persuasion election, I’ve said that from the beginning, it’s a motivational election. Whichever side turns out their people is going to win this race, and it’s that simple,” said Cahaley. 3923

On Tuesday, Arlington National Cemetery announced that the annual Wreaths Across America event scheduled for next month would be canceled due to coronavirus concerns. But later in the day, President Donald Trump said he is forcing the event to go on, despite concerns about the coronavirus.Earlier in the day, organizers said they could “no longer envision a way to safely accommodate the large number of visitors” at the event.“We did not make this decision lightly. Despite the controls developed to disperse potential crowds in time and space, and required personal safety protocols, we determined that hosting any event of this scale risked compromising our ability to accomplish our core mission of laying veterans and their eligible family members to rest,” stated Karen Durham-Aguilera, Executive Director, Office of Army National Cemeteries and Arlington National Cemetery. “We reviewed various options to safely execute this long standing event and held numerous consultations with WAA leadership and local government and public health officials.”Trump, however, called the decision, “ridiculous” in a tweet.“I have reversed the ridiculous decision to cancel the Wreaths Across America at Arlington National Cemetery. It will now go on!” Trump said.In an updated statement, the cemetery confirmed that it would hold the event.The event is slated for December 19. 1379

OTAY MESA, (KGTV) -- Construction for President Trump's border wall is set to begin the end of the month, but law enforcement is already prepping for protests.There are not too many visitors at the end of the only road that goes into the border project. Agents on ATVs and the occasional semi truck are about all you'll see.But by the looks of everything being put up, it's clear those in charge know something may be coming and they want to keep it out.People familiar with the border project say the fence was put up in the last few days.The San Diego Sheriff’s Department says they are not involved with the construction in any way but that, “the department is currently evaluating the need and possible location of a 'free speech' area where citizens can peacefully express their viewpoints.”Meanwhile, local activists like Border Angels' Enrique Morones told 10News they are not aware of any mass protest that could take place, but they are worried about possible out of town groups coming in and causing a problem. In the same week as the one-year anniversary of the Standing Rock protests over the Dakota Pipeline, law enforcement is guarding this patch near the border as it could become ground zero for the immigration debate. 1248

One of the men arrested for his involvement in a militia group's planned kidnapping of Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer was the subject of a feature story in a Swedish newspaper in June.In a report originally published by Expressen on June 21, reporter Nina Svenberg and photographer Joel Marklund met the subject of their next story, 21-year-old Paul Bellar, at an anti-coronavirus lockdown rally in Lansing, Michigan dubbed "Judgment Day.""(Bellar) spoke about the Boogaloo movement," said Svanberg, a U.S. correspondent for Expressen. "He said that they were a part of the Boogaloo movement and he also said, 'Well, I'm going to get in trouble for saying this.'"After the rally, the journalists met at Bellar at his home in Milford, Michigan where Bellar showed off his weapons and talked about his views on the government."I feel like the American civilization has to know that it's going to possibly revolt against the tyrannical government," Bellar said during an interview with Svanberg at his home on May 14. "I feel people have had enough of it and they're willing to pick up arms for it.""He said it's a tyranny," Svanberg said later. "He repeatedly talked about the system as a tyranny."Svanberg also says he talked about his militia, which held training preparing for different scenarios."He even said at one point, 'We are not crazy people, we are not planning to burn things or something like that, we are just here to protect our country,'" Svanberg said.However, according to the FBI and Michigan State Police, they were planning much more than that. Investigators allege Bellar was appointed "sergeant" of the "Wolverine Watchmen," an anti-government group conspiring to target law enforcement, attack the Capitol in Lansing and kidnap Whitmer."He talked about them communicating via encrypted chat groups," Svanberg said. "He pulled out his phone and said there were about 50 people in that chat group consisting of men and women, former veterans, all kinds of backgrounds."A federal investigation, aided by two informants inside the group's encrypted chats, kept police up to date with the group's plans, movements and training."He said he had been followed by the police, he was aware that the police were watching him as he described it," Svanberg said. "His big fear was that the feds or the police would come knocking on his door, he said that was what he was expecting."On Thursday, what Bellar said he was expecting happened. Bellar was arrested in South Carolina and now faces charges for weapons, gang membership and terrorism."He also said that his worst nightmare was to be described as a domestic terrorist and that the feds would come and take his guns because, and I quote, 'that won't end well,'" said Svanberg.Now, Bellar is currently in the process of being extradited back to Michigan to face trial for those charges, which would carry a maximum of 42 years in prison.To read Svanberg's story, click here.This story was originally published by Brett Kast on WXYZ in Detroit. 3016

ORLANDO, Fla. (AP) — A federal judge has stopped the 2020 census from finishing at the end of September and ordered the once-a-decade head count of every U.S. resident extended for another month through the end of October. U.S. District Judge Lucy Koh said in her ruling late Thursday that a shortened schedule would likely produce inaccurate results. A coalition of civil rights groups and local governments had sued the Census Bureau in an effort to prevent the 2020 census from stopping at the end of the month. They said the shortened schedule would undercount residents in minority and hard-to-count communities.Koh said inaccuracies produced from a shortened schedule would affect the distribution of federal funding and political representation. The census is used to determine how .5 trillion in federal spending is distributed each year and how many congressional seats each state gets.Government attorneys had argued that the census must finish by the end of September to meet a Dec. 31 deadline for turning over numbers used for deciding how many congressional seats each state gets.Koh’s preliminary injunction suspends that end-of-the-year deadline, too. The San Jose, California-based judge had previously issued a temporary restraining order prohibiting the Census Bureau from winding down field operations until she made a ruling in the lawsuit. 1371

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