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On their surface, a lot polls got the 2016 election wrong. As late as October 23, 2016, an ABC News poll had Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by 12%.But pollsters say that polls like the one conducted by ABC News do not even tell the whole story.“National polls are very helpful in giving us a sense of who might win the popular vote. In that regard, 2016 polls were relatively accurate,” said Emily Goodman is a principal at EMC Research, a nationwide polling firm.Hilary Clinton won the popular vote by about 2.8 million votes or 2%. In the last week of the election, many polls had tightened to have Clinton winning by about 2 to 5 percent. Goodman says a lot of people don’t understand polls.“One of the most important things to know about polls is that, they’re just a point in time, it’s a snapshot,” she said. There are a few key things you should look for when it comes to polling, the first being you don’t win the presidency by winning the popular vote.“The path to the presidency is by winning 270 Electoral College votes and that is why the state by state polling is incredibly important,” said Goodman. So nationwide polling won’t tell you who will win. Instead, state by state polling is more helpful.There’s also a few other things you should look for if you see a poll on the news, social media or other places.“The first is timeline, when was it conducted? Are you looking at a poll that was very recent, or a poll that was conducted months ago? Who the poll is conducted among. So are you looking at a poll of adults, are you looking at a poll of registered voters, of likely voters, or some other subset of the population? The sample size, that is, how many people were actually included in the poll? That ultimately tells you what the margin of error is. How the poll was conducted, what was the methodology? Was it conducted on telephone and did those phones include landlines and cellphones? Was it conducted online, over text?” Goodman explains. One key thing there, how polling respondents are reached, and it’s one thing that a pollster who got the 2016 election right says is key.“I don’t want the public face, I want what you really think because your real opinions are what go in that voting booth with you, when nobody is looking," said Robert Cahaly, the lead pollster for the Trafalgar Group,In 2016, Trafalgar projected Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Florida for Donald Trump. He says in 2016, there was a group of hidden Trump supporters. He said it’s a result of what’s called the Social Desirability Bias.“When you speak to a live person on the phone, you tend, especially when you know they know who you are, you tend to give an answer to a question that you think will make you look best in the mind of the person you’re talking to versus your true feeling,” he said. Cahaley says to some people, being seen as a Trump supporter is so undesirable, they won’t tell the truth to people conducting polls on the phone. He’s seeing the same exact thing in 2020 he saw in 2016 and that traditional polling may not be accounting for this.However, Goodman says that the industry is expanding how to reach respondents.“What used to be the gold standard of telephone surveys, exclusively landlines, is no longer appropriate. Cellphones, but beyond just having someone just call up a voter on your cellphone, we’re also now including texting, emailing, that includes a link to take a survey online and using a mix of those methodologies really helps get a representative sample of likely voters,”Both pollsters do agree on one thing however, this election will come down to turn out.“A lot of this is really going to come down to turn out,” said Goodman. “This thing has never been a persuasion election, I’ve said that from the beginning, it’s a motivational election. Whichever side turns out their people is going to win this race, and it’s that simple,” said Cahaley. 3923

Ohio State announced that it has canceled its Saturday matchup against Illinois after head coach Ryan Day tested positive for the coronavirus, OSU announced on Friday. Day is the second head coach of a Top 5 team to come down with the virus in recent days.Ohio State confirmed that there has been an increase in the number of coronavirus cases in the athletics program, but declined to say how many have tested positive. Ohio State was slated to leave Columbus on Friday, but after Day and other unnamed members of the team tested positive for COVID-19, the team conducted more testing with the hopes of traveling to Illinois on Saturday hours before kickoff. Earlier this week, Alabama head coach Nick Saban announced he tested positive for the coronavirus, and would not be in attendance for the No. 1-ranked Crimson Tide’s contest against Auburn.The Big Ten requires that coaches isolate for 10 days following a positive coronavirus test. It’s unclear exactly when he tested positive. After tomorrow’s matchup at Illinois, Ohio State plays Michigan State on Dec. 5.The coronavirus has played havoc on the college football schedule in recent weeks.One other Big Ten matchup has already been canceled this week, a contest between Minnesota and Wisconsin. Saturday’s game is the third Wisconsin game canceled this season.Ohio State had a matchup wiped out two weeks ago against Maryland.“We have continued to experience an increase in positive tests over the course of this week,” Smith said. “The health, safety and well-being of our student-athlete is our main concern, and our decisions on their welfare will continue to be guided by our medical staff.” 1665

OCEANSIDE, Calif. (KGTV) — Firefighters battled a fire at a North County residence Saturday.The 3-alarm blaze was reported in the 1400 block of Division Street just after 2:30 p.m., according to an Oceanside Fire Battalion Chief. It took fire crews an hour to get the upper hand in the firefight, due to the wind and lack of resources, according to fire officials.Three people were injured. Two people were transported to UCSD hospital for burn injuries. One man was burned on the arm, according to his father, Alfredo Muruato. Muruato said his son and his daughter-in-law were asleep when the fire started and were awoken by the dog.Another resident, Carla Vega, described the harrowing ordeal. She said she was in the shower when she heard a loud boom, "I peeked out my head and smelled fire so I got out of the shower... I just saw a bunch of smoke everybody running." She said everyone was panicked. When she returned to remove her things, she said everyone was going to have to find another place to live. "Everything is replaceable, it is materialistic, my life is not materialistic, that’s what matters, I got myself out, my dog," Vega said.The Red Cross is assisting more than 30 people were displaced in the fire.The cause of the fire is still under investigation. Arson investigators were on scene. 1316

On November 11, the country will honor those who have served in the armed forces.Dozens of businesses around the country will also be giving out freebies and discounts to honor veterans. Most businesses require valid military ID or proof of service. 257

Ohio and Michigan. Two states with intense rivalries, however when you visit, you can't help but think how much they are the same. With a combined 34 electoral college votes, both are swing states that will decide this election. Both have experienced economic hardship in recent decades and both still rely on the auto industry for jobs. Ahead of the first debate in nearby Cleveland, what are the candidates doing for the auto worker?UNION DEBATE"I am the president of UAW Local 14," Tony Toddy proudly says from his office in Toledo. Toddy, who has been with the UAW for years, recently took over the post. "We like Joe because we know Joe," Toddy says, speaking of the UAW endorsement of Joe Biden. Toddy believes Biden would listen to unions more if elected president. Toddy does not like the new trade agreement, USMCA, which President Donald Trump signed into law earlier this year. "It’s just NAFTA 2.0. Where are the jobs?" Toddy said. But Trump supporters say wait a minute. "I've worked for Ford Motor Company for 24 years," Terry Bowman, who serves as co-chair of the Michigan Republican Party, said. "The American worker deserves four more years of a Trump presidency," Bowman said. Bowman said while union leadership maybe backing Biden, many on the assembly line are backing Trump. Bowman says workers like Trump's tough tough talk and believe his new trade deal is better than the alternative. ON THE ISSUESSo how do the candidates want to help the auto industry? Biden wants to shift 300,000 government cars from gas to electric, believing government investments would generate 1 million new jobs. Trump says his new USMCA trade deal will create 100,000 new jobs and that his rollback of environmental regulations will result in cheaper cars. At Inside the Five Brewery near the Michigan/Ohio line, patrons are divided heading into the debate. "I am for Biden," Marge Mizer, said. "I like an upfront person that’s going to tell me the truth," Mizer said. Meanwhile David Bartlett says he wants Trump to send a message. "I want to see President Trump destroy Joe Biden in the debate," Bartlett said. 2123

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