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As the Summer of COVID draws to a close, many experts fear an even bleaker fall and suggest that American families should start planning for Thanksgiving by Zoom.Because of the many uncertainties, public health scientists say it’s easier to forecast the weather on Thanksgiving Day than to predict how the U.S. coronavirus crisis will play out this autumn. But school reopenings, holiday travel and more indoor activity because of colder weather could all separately increase transmission of the virus and combine in ways that could multiply the threat, they say.Here’s one way it could go: As more schools open for in-person instruction and more college students return to campuses, small clusters of cases could widen into outbreaks in late September. Public fatigue over mask rules and other restrictions could stymie efforts to slow these infections.A few weeks later, widening outbreaks could start to strain hospitals. If a bad flu season peaks in October, as happened in 2009, the pressure on the health care system could result in higher daily death tolls from the coronavirus. Dr. Robert Redfield, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, has said that scenario is his biggest fear.One certainty is that the virus will still be around, said Jarad Niemi, a disease-modeling expert at Iowa State University.“We will not have a vaccine yet and we will not have enough infected individuals for herd immunity to be helpful,” Niemi said.Fall may feel like a roller coaster of stop-and-start restrictions, as communities react to climbing hospital cases, said University of Texas disease modeler Lauren Ancel Meyers. Everyone should get a flu shot, she said, because if flu spreads widely, hospitals will begin to buckle and “that will compound the threat of COVID.”“The decisions we make today will fundamentally impact the safety and feasibility of what we can do next month and by Thanksgiving,” Meyers said.The virus is blamed for over 180,000 deaths and 6 million confirmed infections in the U.S. Worldwide, the death toll is put at almost 850,000, with over 25 million cases.The U.S. is recording on average about 900 deaths a day from COVID-19, and newly confirmed infections per day are running at about 42,000, down from their peak in mid-July, when cases were topping out at over 70,000.Around the country, a chicken processing plant in California will close this week for deep cleaning after nearly 400 workers got sick, including eight who died. And college campuses have been hit by outbreaks involving hundreds of students, blamed in some cases on too much partying. Schools including the University of North Carolina, Michigan State and Notre Dame have moved instruction online because of clusters on their campuses.Several vaccines are in advanced testing, and researchers hope to have results later this year. But even if a vaccine is declared safe and effective by year’s end, as some expect, there won’t be enough for everyone who wants it right away.Several companies are developing rapid, at-home tests, which conceivably could be used by families before a Thanksgiving gathering, but none has yet won approval.More than 90 million adults are over 65 or have health problems, putting them in higher danger of severe consequences if they get sick with the coronavirus. Many of them and their families are starting to decide whether to book holiday flights.Cassie Docking, 44, an urgent care nurse in Seattle, is telling her parents — both cancer survivors — that Thanksgiving will be by FaceTime only.“We all want to get to 2021,” she said, “and if that’s what it takes, that’s what we’ll do.”Caitlin Joyce’s family is forging ahead with a holiday feast. They plan to set up plywood tables on sawhorses in a large garage so they can sit 6 feet apart.“We’ll be in our coats and our sweaters,” said Joyce, 30, of Edmonds, Washington, who plans to travel to her grandparents’ home in Virginia. “It will be almost like camping.”One widely cited disease model projects 2,086 U.S. deaths per day by Thanksgiving, more than double compared with today.“In our family we will not have our extended family get-together. We will stick to the nuclear family,” said Dr. Christopher Murray of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, one of the few models making a prediction for November.Uncertainty is huge in Murray’s model: Daily deaths could be as low as 1,500 by Thanksgiving or as high as 3,100. In a more optimistic scenario, daily deaths could range from 510 to 1,200 if nearly everyone wears masks. A more pessimistic scenario? From 2,700 to 6,500 daily deaths if social distancing rules continue to be lifted and are not reimposed.With all the uncertainty, most disease modelers aren’t looking that far ahead — at least officially.Jeffrey Shaman, a public health expert at Columbia University, thinks the virus will spread more easily as the weather forces people indoors: “But what level of a bump? That’s hard to say.”At Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh, computer scientist Roni Rosenfeld’s team uses machine learning to project COVID-19 deaths. The team’s computer algorithm learns from patterns it finds in state and county data to improve its forecasts.A five-time winner of a CDC competition for predicting flu season activity, Rosenfeld thinks his model’s COVID-19 projections aren’t very useful beyond four weeks because of the wild card of human behavior, including that of government officials.“What happens very much depends on us,” he said. “People, myself included, don’t always behave rationally.” Presented with the same facts, “the same person might behave differently depending on how sick and tired they are of the situation.”Like other disease modelers, Rosenfeld said the virus will still be with us at Thanksgiving, readily spreading at family gatherings. While his plans may yet change, he said he is going to travel with his wife to visit their adult children. They will wear masks and keep a safe distance during the visit.___The Associated Press Health and Science Department receives support from the Howard Hughes Medical Institute’s Department of Science Education. The AP is solely responsible for all content. 6201

AUSTIN, Texas – The Texas Medical Association has created a handy chart to help Americans determine how risky everyday activities are when it comes to contracting the novel coronavirus.From opening the mail to going to a bar, TMA’s COVID-19 Task Force and Committee on Infectious Diseases have ranked activities on their risk level for COVID-19.The activities are broken down into these levels: low risk, low-moderate risk, moderate risk, moderate-high risk, and high risk.TMA says the levels are based on input from the physician members of the task force and the committee, who worked from the assumption that – no matter the activity – participants were taking as many safety precautions as they can.No matter the activity, TMA says it’s best if you stay home if possible, wear a mask and maintain at least 6 feet of distance when you have to go out, and practice safe hand hygiene.TMA’s task force is made up of 15 physicians who are experts and leaders in medicine, some of whom are in direct patient care.The task force has researched and written in the neighborhood of 25 whitepapers and guidance documents to help inform Texas physicians as they battle the COVID-19 coronavirus. They created those papers and guidance to help inform and guide the more than 53,000 TMA members across the state as they battle the pandemic and care for Texas patients. 1365

As the Democrats kicked off Night No. 1 of its four-night virtual national convention, George Floyd’s brother Philonise Floyd spoke out against his brother’s death.Philonise Floyd led the convention in a moment of silence in honor of his brother and others who have died as victims of "hate and injustice.""George should be alive today,” Philonise Floyd said. “Breonna Taylor should be alive today. Ahmaud Arbery should be alive today. Eric Garner should be alive today. Stephon Clark, Atatiana Jefferson, Sandra Bland—they should all be alive today. So it's up to us to carry on the fight."While most of those named by Philonise Floyd died while in police custody, Arbery was killed in a shooting by civilians. Three Georgia men, Travis McMichael, Gregory McMichael, and William "Roddie" Bryan were charged in connection with Arbery's death. His death came to light after it took 74 days before anyone was charged in connection with his death. Preceding Floyd at the virtual convention was Muriel Bowser, Washington D.C.’s Democratic mayor who called out President Donald Trump for using federal agents to deploy tear gas on a crowd of Black Lives Matter protests. During the height of the protests, federal agents used tear gas to disperse a crowd moments before Trump emerged from the White House to visit a burned out church across the street from the White House.“Where we were peacefully protesting, Donald Trump was plotting,” she said. “He stood in front of one of our most treasured houses of worship and held a Bible for a photo op. He sent troops in camouflage into our streets. He sent tear gas into the air—federal helicopters, too. I knew if he did this to D.C., he would do it to your city or your town.”During Bowser’s remarks, Trump’s campaign panned Bowser for saying she was “proud” of protesters. While Bowser wouldn’t initially commit to removing a “Defund the Police” mural from a D.C. street, city crews have since paved over the mural. 1967

At least 226 people have died following a 7.1-magnitude earthquake that hit Mexico Tuesday, according to a tweet from Luis Felipe Puente, National Coordinator of Civil Protection of the Ministry of the Interior. Of those killed, more than half were in the country's capital, according to Puente.The epicenter of the earthquake was 2.8 miles east-northeast of San Juan Raboso and 34.1 miles south-southwest of the city of Puebla, in Puebla state, according to the US Geological Survey.President Enrique Pe?a Nieto said 22 bodies were found in the debris of an elementary school in Mexico City that collapsed due to the earthquake. At least 30 children were still missing Tuesday night, he said. 701

ATLANTA -- Senator Lindsey Graham said Tuesday he has spoken with election officials in a number of battleground states about their ballot counting procedures.Georgia’s secretary of state said that U.S. Sen. Lindsey Graham asked him whether he had the power to reject certain absentee ballots. Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger told The Washington Post he interpreted the question as a suggestion that he toss out legally cast ballots.Raffensperger said Graham asked him whether political bias might have caused election workers to accept ballots that might have been discarded for non-matching signatures. An accusation that there has been no evidence to suggest.Graham on Monday said that was “ridiculous.” He said he was trying to find out how signature verification for absentee ballots works in Georgia.Raffensperger, also a Republican, has been criticized by President Donald Trump and other fellow Republicans over his handling of the election and said he’s received death threats. He has rigorously defended the integrity of Georgia’s election results.Graham told reporters in D.C. Tuesday he also talked with officials in Arizona and Nevada, specifically to ask them questions about the process for validating signatures on ballots.President-elect Joe Biden is projected to win both Arizona and Nevada, and holds a 13,000 vote lead in Georgia as they finish up a recount.The Trump campaign issued a statement Tuesday afternoon that seemed to support Graham’s line of questioning, without providing evidence.“Georgia officials must continue with their recount efforts to ensure that the American people know the true outcome of the 2020 presidential election, and the Georgia recount must include a thorough matching of signatures,” the statement reads.When Sen. Graham was asked why he was making these calls, he responded he is a “United States senator who is worried about the integrity of the election process nationally, when it comes to vote by mail.” 1977

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