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SAN DIEGO (KGTV) -- Economic forecasters are beginning to warn of a possible 2020 recession, and the impact they say will be felt in the Golden State, according to a new report by UCLA.“Don’t celebrate the 3.1% GDP growth estimate for the first quarter of 2019,” writes UCLA Anderson Professor Emeritus Edward Leamer. Leamer is quoted in a recent report produced by the UCLA Anderson School of Management. According to Leamer, the data actually increases the risk of a recession at some point in the next couple of years. Nationally, economic growth is expected to slow marginally to 2.1 percent in the fourth quarter of 2019 and 1.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2020. RELATED: Fed cuts interest rates for the first time since recessionThe good news is that the report predicts an economic rebound, growing again to 2.1 percent in the fourth quarter of 2021. So what picture does the report paint for California? One forecaster says you can expect California unemployment to rise modestly. “Weakness in housing as well as the slowing U.S. economy is reflected in a very modest growth rate in the U.S. in late 2020,” UCLA Anderson Forecast director Jerry Nickelsburg writes. “As a consequence, we expect California’s average unemployment rate to rise slightly to an average of 4.6% in the first quarter of 2021. For the entire year for 2020 and 2021, we expect average unemployment rates of 4.3% and 4.4%, respectively.”Meanwhile, personal income growth in the state of California is forecast at 2.9 percent in 2019. But the report warns that income growth is expected to slow to 1.9 percent by 2020.It’s not all bad news, however, income growth is expected to rise fairly quickly again in 2021, and is forecast to reach 2.1 percent by the end of the year. There's more good news. The Federal Reserve Wednesday lowered interest rates for the first time since the Great Recession in 2008 to help prevent an economic downturn. 1936

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) - Escondido, California police are asking for the public's assistance in finding a mule that was reported stolen. 138

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) — Despite ongoing efforts by the county and health systems to roll out the new COVID-19 vaccine, experts say communities of color find it challenging to trust the system.Roberto Alcantar with the Chicano Federation says tackling a mindset may be harder than tackling the virus."Historically, we have seen that in the black and brown community, there has been a general distrust of government," Alcantar said.New data from the Pew Research Center shows that only 42% of Black Americans say they would get a COVID-19 vaccine once it is available. In comparison, 61% percent of white, 63% of Hispanic, and 83% of Asian populations say they would get the vaccine. Not because they are anti-vaxxers. Instead, many attribute that number to the Tuskegee Syphilis Study."Horrific stories that we've heard about medical trials in the Black community back in the 1950s and 1960s in which they were things being done without their awareness," Alcantar said.It was a 40-year experiment that affected more than 600 black men who were told by the American government they were getting treatment for syphilis and other illnesses. When in reality, even after treatment was found, the men continued to get unrelated injections."So there's a lot of justification for that mistrust," Alcantar said.Locally, Latinos make up the most positive COVID numbers. But Alcantar says the level of confidence in a new vaccine is still low. He says whether it is lack of access, information, or trust, Latinos have historically sought out less care, and the pandemic has only highlighted medical inequities. That is why he believes it is important for community organizations to work with the government, not to force on the vaccine or sway people's opinions, but to build trust."There's a lot of work to do in regards to trust in government," Alcantar said. "But we're here to make sure that our communities are well-informed and have all the facts so that they can make the best decisions for themselves."The World Health Organization attributes "vaccine hesitancy" as one of the ten threats to global health. 2105

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) -- Five dogs died during a fire at a former kennel in Lakeside early Sunday morning. The fire broke out on the 8700 block of Winter Gardens Boulevard around 3 a.m., according to the Lakeside Fire Protection District. The house used to be a functioning kennel, but the woman who lives in the home was either pet sitting or storing the animal for residents at the time of the fire, the district says. RELATED: Mother, father killed in Logan Heights house fireA total of eight dogs were inside the home when the blaze sparked. Five of the dogs and a parrot died in the blaze. Crews say the fire started downstairs in the two-story home. The department says the age of the home made it difficult to fight the blaze. “Old structures are lath and plaster, they’re difficult to fight fires because the fires are get deep in the walls. So it takes a long time to put those out. There is a lot of stuff inside of the home as well. So moving hoselines inside of the house is very difficult as well,” according to Bernard Molloy with Lakeside Fire. RELATED: Family escapes as fire destroys Lakeside homeThe surviving animals were found upstairs and are expected to be okay. At this time, it’s unclear what caused the fire. 1237

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) -- Famed stand-up comedian Jo Koy is being recognized by the City of San Diego in honor of Filipino American History Month.On Friday, Oct. 16, District 6 City Councilman Chris Cate will proclaim the day “Jo Koy Day” in San Diego. The ceremony, which will take place in Mira Mesa on Friday afternoon, will be emceed by ABC 10News reporter Melissa Mecija.The 49-year-old Jo Koy, whose real name is Joseph Herbert, has established himself as one of the most popular comedians in the world in recent years, with several Netflix specials, sold-out comedy tours, and other media endeavors under his belt.In a statement, Cate, a second-generation Filipino-American, said: “Jo Koy is iconic and a trailblazer. His homage to the Philippines has reached the lives of millions of people worldwide. Filipino cuisine, culture, and arts are flourishing in District 6, and I am excited to celebrate Jo Koy and recognize his accomplishments.”According to Cate’s office, 1 in every 3 District 6 residents is of Asian-American descent. The district consists of Clairemont Mesa, Kearny Mesa, Mira Mesa, Rancho Pe?asquitos, and Sorrento Valley.Cate’s office added: “Filipino American History Month commemorates the first recorded presence of Filipinos in the continental United States, which occurred in October of 1587 when Luzones Indios landed at what is now Morro Bay, California. Filipino Americans are the second largest Asian American group in the nation and the third largest ethnic group in California. San Diego is home to one of the largest concentrations of Filipinos, with more than 200,000 Filipinos residing in America’s Finest City.” 1654