沈阳什么地方做狐臭手术较好沈阳肤康皮肤病医院治疗皮肤科贵不专业么,沈阳皮肤科医生在线咨询qq,沈阳哪里看痘印比较好,沈阳东成皮肤医院好不好,沈阳治疗慢性湿疹的好医院,沈阳治疗腋臭哪个医院较好,沈阳肤康皮肤病医院治疗皮肤科口碑好么靠谱吗

The number of people filing for unemployment for the first time is dropping slightly. Just over 800,000 people filed last week, which is less than what was expected. For perspective, only about 287,000 filed the same time last year.The total number of people still receiving some kind of benefits is just under 21 million. Meanwhile, some people who do have jobs are leaving a lot of money on the table in 2020.“If you don’t take time off, you are basically giving the company back almost a paycheck, like here you go, here's my one-week salary,” said Vicki Salemi, Monster Career Expert.Career website Monster found almost half of workers didn't take their full paid time off this year.The pandemic turned work life balance into an all-at-home blended mess for many. Many workers said they didn't take their time because there was nothing to do, nowhere to go, or they were worried about their jobs.Only a small amount of workers are able to rollover their unused time into 2021.Taking time off has been especially critical this year.“You can see things more clearly. You may even be happier thinking about your time off even if that just meant you stayed on your living room couch and binged the latest show,” said Salemi.Some employers, like Monster, even added mental health or additional days off this year, recognizing the extreme stress many were under.Salemi says even if you don’t have big plans for your time away from work, create some sort of framework.“It doesn't have to be rigid, but just so you feel like at the end of the day or the end of the time off, you don’t want to feel like it was for not, like its OK if you're just going to rest this whole time,” said Salemi.If you didn't get in all that paid time this year, depending on your circumstance, it’s worth asking to see if you could carry some over into next year.Now is also a good time to plan for 2021. Monster suggests even starting small with some three-day weekends in January and February. 1978

The polling industry has a lot on the line heading into Tuesday's midterm election.Critics blamed pollsters when voters were caught off guard by Donald Trump's election in 2016. Old cries of "don't believe the polls" became fevered shouts. And the president has encouraged distrust by calling certain polls "fake" and claiming they are used to "suppress" the vote.Although there is no evidence to suggest that is true, there is persistent and widespread suspicion about polling, according to, you guessed it, a McClatchy-Marist poll. And it exists on both sides, albeit in different forms."I think Democrats may have felt let down by the polls but don't think it was an intentional error. I think many Republicans believe the polling errors of 2016 were intentional," GOP pollster and co-founder of Echelon Insights Kristen Soltis Anderson told CNN.So can the industry regain trust?Since 2016 there's been a whole lot of self-reflection in the polling world. Pollsters have tweaked their techniques; pundits have become more cautious when talking about polls; and news outlets have conducted some fascinating experiments.On Tuesday, all the efforts are being put to the test."Some pollsters would disagree with this, but the way that the public generally views whether or not polling is accurate is whether or not it gets the results of the election right," CNN analyst Harry Enten said on "Reliable Sources.""I'm not necessarily sure that's fair," Enten said, "but I do think that there is more pressure on pollsters this year to get it right given the president's rhetoric and given what happened in 2016."Many, though not all, 2016 polls underestimated support for Trump. This effect was particularly pronounced at the state level, where there were embarrassing "misses," showing Hillary Clinton with safe leads in states Trump actually carried.Most national polls accurately showed Clinton winning the popular vote. But reporters and commentators made lots of mistakes in their interpretations of the polls. Readers and viewers did, too. Many people discounted the margin and other factors and made faulty assumptions that Trump would lose to Clinton.There were other problems, too. Predictive features on websites gained lots of traffic before the election but caused lots of consternation afterward. HuffPost's model infamously showed Clinton with a 98 percent chance of winning. "We blew it," the site admitted afterward.But just as importantly, HuffPost's Natalie Jackson tried to explain why.Other news outlets have also tried to be more transparent and remind voters of what polls cannot convey.In special elections since 2016, Democrats have repeatedly outperformed polls of their races.The top example was the Virginia governors' race. "Ralph Northam was favored by three points. He ended up winning by nine," Enten said.But past outcomes are not an indicator of future results."I think many pollsters and forecasters have tried to be much more intentional about explaining uncertainty and being humble about what data can and can't tell us," Anderson said. "Because I think there was a big sense that in 2016, there was more certainty conveyed than may have been justified by the available data."So political pros and reporters are communicating poll results differently this time. Time magazine's Molly Ball, who has a no-predictions rule for herself, said that even people who do make predictions are adding more caveats: There's "less of the, 'Well, the needle shows this' and more of, 'Here's what it doesn't show, here's what we should always remember can happen about probabilities.'"Early voting has been explosive in the midterms, indicating above-average enthusiasm among both Democrats and Republicans. Pollsters have to make assumptions about turnout when contacting "likely voters," and this is a difficult election to forecast.The 2018 electorate is "a universe that doesn't exist yet," Democratic pollster Margie Omero said. "I mean, people don't know whether they're going to vote, some people."They may tell a pollster that they're sure to vote, but never make it to the ballot box. Or they might change who they're voting for.Conversely, certain subsets of voters may have a big impact on the final results without really showing up in the pre-election polling. If pollsters assume relatively low youth turnout, but lots of young people vote for the first time, that could cause big surprises in certain races.The vast majority of people who are called by pollsters decline to participate, so the researchers have to make a huge number of phone calls, bend over backwards to reach a representative sample of people, and weight their results accordingly.Some polls are higher quality than others. Most news outlets tend to favor live interviewers, as opposed to computerized systems, and a mix of landline and cell phone calls. But some outlets are wading into web-based polling. CNN's polling standards preclude reporting on web polls.This fall The New York Times pulled back the curtain by conducting "live polling" and publishing the results in real time, call by call. Working with Siena College, the surveyors made 2,822,889 calls and completed 96 polls of House and Senate races."We wanted to demystify polling for people," said Nate Cohn of The Times' Upshot blog."From our point of view, it's almost a miracle how accurate polls usually are, given all the challenges," Cohn said in an interview with CNN.He emphasized that polls are "very fuzzy things." And the real-time polling showed this to the public. The researchers sought to interview about 500 people for each race that was examined.In Iowa's fourth congressional district, for example, 14,636 calls resulted in 423 interviews.The results showed the incumbent, far-right congressman Steve King, with 47% support, and his Democratic challenger J.D. Scholten with 42%.The Times characterized this as a "slight edge" for King, with lots of room for error. "The margin of sampling error on the overall lead is 10 points, roughly twice as large as the margin for a single candidate's vote share," the Times explained on its website.Cohn's final pre-election story noted that "even modest late shifts among undecided voters or a slightly unexpected turnout could significantly affect results."That's the kind of language that lots of polling experts are incorporating into their stories and live shots, especially in the wake of the 2016 election."With polling, you never actually get to the truth," Cohn said. "You inch towards it, and you think you end up within plus or minus 5 points of it at the end."As Enten put it, "polls are tools," not meant to be perfect. But that message needs to be reinforced through the news media. 6753

The House Intelligence Committee voted along party lines Thursday to release the Republican report on Russian meddling, after it goes through the declassification process.The top Democrat on the committee, Rep. Adam Schiff of California, said his party members on the committee sought to hold the hearing in open session, issue a number of subpoenas and hold former White House adviser Steve Bannon in contempt. He said Republicans rejected all of it. Democratic Rep. Mike Quigley of Illinois that reiterated Schiff and said Democrats made more than a dozen motions.Schiff effectively declared the bipartisan investigation over but said the Democratic probe would continue.Rep. Eric Swalwell of California called the report an incomplete assessment.In a sign of how tense the meeting was, Quigley said he clucked like a chicken at one point to underscore how he thought Republicans "lacked courage" and "ducked one of the most important times in American history."  978

The Museum of the Bible in Washington, DC says five of its most valuable artifacts — all thought to be part of the historic Dead Sea Scrolls — are fake and will not be displayed anymore.German-based scholars tested the fragments and found that five "show characteristics inconsistent with ancient origin and therefore will no longer be displayed at the museum.""Though we had hoped the testing would render different results, this is an opportunity to educate the public on the importance of verifying the authenticity of rare biblical artifacts, the elaborate testing process undertaken and our commitment to transparency," said Jeffrey Kloha, the chief curatorial officer for Museum of the Bible."As an educational institution entrusted with cultural heritage, the museum upholds and adheres to all museum and ethical guidelines on collection care, research and display."But some scholars had questioned the fragments in the collection even before the museum opened with splashy ceremonies last November. Others believe they are all fake.Steve Green, the museum's founder and chairman, won't say how much his family spent for the 16 fragments in its collection. But other evangelicals, including a Baptist seminary in Texas and an evangelical college in California, have paid millions to purchase similar pieces of the Dead Sea Scrolls.In April 2017, Bible Museum sent five fragments to the Bundesanstalt für Materialforschung und-prüfung (BAM) a German institute for analyzing materials, where scholars tested for 3D digital microscopy and conducted material analyses of the ink and sediment on the papyrus. (Scholars have theorized that forgers use old scraps of papyrus or leather, to make fraud detection more difficult.)Their report, which the Bible Museum said they recently received, "further raises suspicions about the authenticity of all five fragments." 1874

The mansion used on 'The Bachelor' and 'The Bachelorette' is now available to rent on Airbnb for ,000 a night.According to the listing, the 10,000-square-foot Mediterranean-style mansion is set in Agoura Hills, California, and boasts seven bedrooms and 8.5 bathrooms. It can house 13 guests comfortably and includes a swimming pool, two hot tubs, a pool table, and hand-crafted furniture. There are three king beds, three queen beds, and one full bed."Villa de la Vina, also known as "The Mansion," is the ideal place for your next getaway. Nestled on a beautiful 10-acre property, Villa de la Vina is situated within the Santa Monica Mountains of Malibu," the description reads. "It offers 10,000 square feet of interior space and 20,000 square feet of outside space. This 200-year-old Mediterranean-style revival house, with its one-of-a-kind pool and romantic archways, exudes the rich feeling of a picturesque hideaway with the canyon, mountain and vineyard views."The listing also states no parties, filming, professional photography, or gatherings are allowed on the property.When the home isn't used as the backdrop for the dating reality show, the house is typically occupied by a local family, who stay at a hotel when filming is underway, the owners told ABC News. 1284