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Average rates on long-term mortgages continue to fall to new record lows, as the key 30-year loan dropped below 3% for the first time in 50 years. The stagnant economic recovery in the face of the coronavirus pandemic is keeping inflation tamped down despite pent-up homebuying demand. Mortgage buyer Freddie Mac says the average rate on the 30-year home loan fell this week to 2.98% from 3.03% last week. These are the lowest levels since Freddie Mac began tracking averages in 1971. The rate averaged 3.81% a year ago.In their update, Freddie Mac says the low rates has led to increased homebuyer demand. Meanwhile, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association, refinancing applications increased recently, about 12 percent in the last week. However, Freddie Mac warns that with an increase in coronavirus cases, the economy can stagnate and cause temporary job layoffs to possibly become permanent. The average rate on the 15-year fixed-rate mortgage declined to 2.48% from 2.51%, from last week. 1008

As the Summer of COVID draws to a close, many experts fear an even bleaker fall and suggest that American families should start planning for Thanksgiving by Zoom.Because of the many uncertainties, public health scientists say it’s easier to forecast the weather on Thanksgiving Day than to predict how the U.S. coronavirus crisis will play out this autumn. But school reopenings, holiday travel and more indoor activity because of colder weather could all separately increase transmission of the virus and combine in ways that could multiply the threat, they say.Here’s one way it could go: As more schools open for in-person instruction and more college students return to campuses, small clusters of cases could widen into outbreaks in late September. Public fatigue over mask rules and other restrictions could stymie efforts to slow these infections.A few weeks later, widening outbreaks could start to strain hospitals. If a bad flu season peaks in October, as happened in 2009, the pressure on the health care system could result in higher daily death tolls from the coronavirus. Dr. Robert Redfield, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, has said that scenario is his biggest fear.One certainty is that the virus will still be around, said Jarad Niemi, a disease-modeling expert at Iowa State University.“We will not have a vaccine yet and we will not have enough infected individuals for herd immunity to be helpful,” Niemi said.Fall may feel like a roller coaster of stop-and-start restrictions, as communities react to climbing hospital cases, said University of Texas disease modeler Lauren Ancel Meyers. Everyone should get a flu shot, she said, because if flu spreads widely, hospitals will begin to buckle and “that will compound the threat of COVID.”“The decisions we make today will fundamentally impact the safety and feasibility of what we can do next month and by Thanksgiving,” Meyers said.The virus is blamed for over 180,000 deaths and 6 million confirmed infections in the U.S. Worldwide, the death toll is put at almost 850,000, with over 25 million cases.The U.S. is recording on average about 900 deaths a day from COVID-19, and newly confirmed infections per day are running at about 42,000, down from their peak in mid-July, when cases were topping out at over 70,000.Around the country, a chicken processing plant in California will close this week for deep cleaning after nearly 400 workers got sick, including eight who died. And college campuses have been hit by outbreaks involving hundreds of students, blamed in some cases on too much partying. Schools including the University of North Carolina, Michigan State and Notre Dame have moved instruction online because of clusters on their campuses.Several vaccines are in advanced testing, and researchers hope to have results later this year. But even if a vaccine is declared safe and effective by year’s end, as some expect, there won’t be enough for everyone who wants it right away.Several companies are developing rapid, at-home tests, which conceivably could be used by families before a Thanksgiving gathering, but none has yet won approval.More than 90 million adults are over 65 or have health problems, putting them in higher danger of severe consequences if they get sick with the coronavirus. Many of them and their families are starting to decide whether to book holiday flights.Cassie Docking, 44, an urgent care nurse in Seattle, is telling her parents — both cancer survivors — that Thanksgiving will be by FaceTime only.“We all want to get to 2021,” she said, “and if that’s what it takes, that’s what we’ll do.”Caitlin Joyce’s family is forging ahead with a holiday feast. They plan to set up plywood tables on sawhorses in a large garage so they can sit 6 feet apart.“We’ll be in our coats and our sweaters,” said Joyce, 30, of Edmonds, Washington, who plans to travel to her grandparents’ home in Virginia. “It will be almost like camping.”One widely cited disease model projects 2,086 U.S. deaths per day by Thanksgiving, more than double compared with today.“In our family we will not have our extended family get-together. We will stick to the nuclear family,” said Dr. Christopher Murray of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, one of the few models making a prediction for November.Uncertainty is huge in Murray’s model: Daily deaths could be as low as 1,500 by Thanksgiving or as high as 3,100. In a more optimistic scenario, daily deaths could range from 510 to 1,200 if nearly everyone wears masks. A more pessimistic scenario? From 2,700 to 6,500 daily deaths if social distancing rules continue to be lifted and are not reimposed.With all the uncertainty, most disease modelers aren’t looking that far ahead — at least officially.Jeffrey Shaman, a public health expert at Columbia University, thinks the virus will spread more easily as the weather forces people indoors: “But what level of a bump? That’s hard to say.”At Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh, computer scientist Roni Rosenfeld’s team uses machine learning to project COVID-19 deaths. The team’s computer algorithm learns from patterns it finds in state and county data to improve its forecasts.A five-time winner of a CDC competition for predicting flu season activity, Rosenfeld thinks his model’s COVID-19 projections aren’t very useful beyond four weeks because of the wild card of human behavior, including that of government officials.“What happens very much depends on us,” he said. “People, myself included, don’t always behave rationally.” Presented with the same facts, “the same person might behave differently depending on how sick and tired they are of the situation.”Like other disease modelers, Rosenfeld said the virus will still be with us at Thanksgiving, readily spreading at family gatherings. While his plans may yet change, he said he is going to travel with his wife to visit their adult children. They will wear masks and keep a safe distance during the visit.___The Associated Press Health and Science Department receives support from the Howard Hughes Medical Institute’s Department of Science Education. The AP is solely responsible for all content. 6201

As the economy slowly reopens, Americans are still filing for unemployment at record rates. For some, staying off the job makes more sense than returning to work.“I’m one of those teachers at high risk,” said Patty Candelaria, a teacher in Austin, Texas. “I’ve had open heart surgery three times. I’m concerned because we can’t predict the future.”She just completed her 20th year of teaching.“I’ve never felt so afraid to be face to face with students and worrying about what germs we’re all carrying,” she said.Candelaria has been teaching summer school from her virtual home classroom. She’s concerned to go back to school in the fall if she’s forced to be there in person.“Those classrooms are germ factories on the best day,” said Lily Eskelsen Garcia, President of the National Education Association. “No one wants those public schools open more than the people who love those kids and work in those schools. But we want them open safely.”“I feel like it’s our district’s responsibility to protect,” Candelaria said.She’s not alone. From rideshare drivers to teachers and flight attendants, workers are having to consider many factors before returning to work.“I think it’s quite scary to go back to work if your employer hasn't put the appropriate safeguards in place,” said Peter Ganong, an Assistant Professor of Public Policy at the University of Chicago.Ganong has been studying the impact of unemployment insurance.“We found that it did quite well in the sense that it has replaced all of the lost income for people who have lost their jobs, and then some above and beyond that as well,” he said.Payouts are usually low to encourage people to apply for jobs, but the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security, or CARES, Act changed that.“What the federal government did is it said, ‘We’re going to add an extra 0 per week to everyone's UI benefits, and that was designed and intended to raise up everyone’s benefits precisely because there are no jobs available in many places,” Ganong explained.That’s exactly what happened to flight attendant Brittany Horn.“I am on unemployment,” Horn said. “A lot of our regular routes were cut and so there were just too many flight attendants and not enough flying.”“Most of the junior flight attendants probably are making more on unemployment,” she explained. “But it also depends on how many hours you work.”Across multiple industries, this has been a discussion. Unemployed workers are making more on unemployment than they did working their jobs. That brought fairness into question.“If you're a janitor and you work at the hospital, you're getting the same pay as before and you’re facing increased risk at your job,” Gangong said. “If you're a janitor and you're at a school, you're going to get paid 40 to 50% more on UI benefits than you were getting when you were working.”Ganong estimates about two thirds of unemployed workers have benefits that are greater than their prior wage. But that will soon change. As businesses start opening back up, that option won’t be available for many.“If your employer calls you back to work, even if your UI benefits are higher than your prior wage, you're required to go back to work or you'll lose your benefits,” Ganong said.Under the CARES Act, that higher level of benefits is set to expire July 31.Brittany’s three-month voluntary leave comes to an end in August.“If the flights don’t start picking up significantly, because right now with the CARES Act, we can’t get furloughed. But starting in October, that’s when technically we could. So, I think everyone’s keeping their hopes up that we are able to continue working come October,” Horn said.And Candelaria is awaiting a decision from the district on what going back to school looks like, before factoring in her health concerns.“None of us want it, so that’s why we’re staying safe at home and building classrooms in homes,” she said. 3910

At least 226 people have died following a 7.1-magnitude earthquake that hit Mexico Tuesday, according to a tweet from Luis Felipe Puente, National Coordinator of Civil Protection of the Ministry of the Interior. Of those killed, more than half were in the country's capital, according to Puente.The epicenter of the earthquake was 2.8 miles east-northeast of San Juan Raboso and 34.1 miles south-southwest of the city of Puebla, in Puebla state, according to the US Geological Survey.President Enrique Pe?a Nieto said 22 bodies were found in the debris of an elementary school in Mexico City that collapsed due to the earthquake. At least 30 children were still missing Tuesday night, he said. 701

AUBURN HILLS, Mich. — Faculty and staff at Oakland University in Rochester, Michigan are being trained to fight active shooters in a unique way – by using hockey pucks. University police are conducting the training sessions, which were organized by the OU Union and the American Association of University Professors, to improve classroom safety for all. The use of hockey pucks allows those vulnerable to an active shooter attack to fight back with something heavy that will also cause a distraction, according to OU Police Chief Mark Gordon. "Hockey pucks provide the ability to be carried in briefcases or backpacks, are not considered a weapon and will meet the goal of distracting the shooter,” Gordon said. The OU Union has distributed hockey pucks to 800 of its members and will distribute an additional 1,700 pucks to students. "Part of the strategy for fighting is you need to create a distraction to give yourself time as a group in a classroom to rush the gunman so you can get your hands on the gun and take it away from the shooter," Gordon said.Although police and organizers find the pucks to be a good solution to the threat of a mass shooting, some students on campus disagree."I found it, at first, absurd," said Adam Kalajian, a third-year student at OU. "What good will it do? I mean, there’s an armed person coming in, why would you chuck a puck at them? What’s it going to do? Nothing." Jacob Gora, a fifth-year senior, echoed the same sentiment. "If I was to give you a puck and I had a gun, would I be able to take you out easily?" Gora asked. "I mean, a puck isn’t going to distract me or stop me from shooting someone."According to a release, the pucks also serve a second purpose. They're being used as a fundraising tool to equip all campus classroom doors with a lock that can be used without exiting the room in the event of an emergency. Already, ,000 has been raised for interior classroom locks through donations from the union and the Oakland University Student Congress.To view OU's active shooter guidelines, click here. But be warned — the reenactments in the training video are graphic.  2225