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SAN DIEGO (KGTV) -- Economic forecasters are beginning to warn of a possible 2020 recession, and the impact they say will be felt in the Golden State, according to a new report by UCLA.“Don’t celebrate the 3.1% GDP growth estimate for the first quarter of 2019,” writes UCLA Anderson Professor Emeritus Edward Leamer. Leamer is quoted in a recent report produced by the UCLA Anderson School of Management. According to Leamer, the data actually increases the risk of a recession at some point in the next couple of years. Nationally, economic growth is expected to slow marginally to 2.1 percent in the fourth quarter of 2019 and 1.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2020. RELATED: Fed cuts interest rates for the first time since recessionThe good news is that the report predicts an economic rebound, growing again to 2.1 percent in the fourth quarter of 2021. So what picture does the report paint for California? One forecaster says you can expect California unemployment to rise modestly. “Weakness in housing as well as the slowing U.S. economy is reflected in a very modest growth rate in the U.S. in late 2020,” UCLA Anderson Forecast director Jerry Nickelsburg writes. “As a consequence, we expect California’s average unemployment rate to rise slightly to an average of 4.6% in the first quarter of 2021. For the entire year for 2020 and 2021, we expect average unemployment rates of 4.3% and 4.4%, respectively.”Meanwhile, personal income growth in the state of California is forecast at 2.9 percent in 2019. But the report warns that income growth is expected to slow to 1.9 percent by 2020.It’s not all bad news, however, income growth is expected to rise fairly quickly again in 2021, and is forecast to reach 2.1 percent by the end of the year. There's more good news. The Federal Reserve Wednesday lowered interest rates for the first time since the Great Recession in 2008 to help prevent an economic downturn. 1936

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) - Eateries in Ocean Beach say Memorial Day weekend is getting them back on top after a slow winter.A couple factors in play, nearly back to back storms and the closed pier. "Our numbers are still way above normal so we'll take it," South Beach Bar & Grille Bartender Philip Cullin said Friday and Saturday were great for business.Next door at Lighthouse Ice Cream, those sentiments were echoed.Sunday was a different story, clouds loomed overhead with sprinkles and rain in the evening, dampening the influx of customers. "It's really cold, there's not that many people out," 14-year-old birthday girl Bella said. She came out with friends and family to celebrate.Businesses thankful to see those customers, saying it's been tough through the slow winter months.Inside the bar, Cullin said they saw lots of business Sunday, "it comes in waves, you'll get like a mad lunch rush, everybody bombs in at the same time to get their fish tacos, and then they clear out mid afternoon and your locals come in."With the pier open, they're seeing even more people, "this area gets way more congested when people are chilling at the pier," Cullin said."I found out Thursday night the pier was opening on Friday and I knew I had to get here early and start making waffle cones, it was a busy day for us, we couldn't even find parking in the morning," Lighthouse Ice Cream Manager Robbie Valdivia said.They're hopeful Memorial Day will bring sunshine and another wave of customers."We actually had them for about two weeks now, a lot of tourists here from out of town, out of state, so it's been really really nice," Valdivia said, knowing it's the unofficial start of summer. "It's going to be busy from here on out, there's going to be a line out the door." 1775

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) — Hundreds of thousands of San Diego County workers are facing the prospect of fewer hours, lower paychecks, and even job loss.The workers are in the retail, leisure, and hospitality fields, which in all employs more than 350,000 workers in the region. The squeeze comes as restrictions increase related to the coronavirus, including a 30-day travel ban from Europe, a county ban on events of 250 or more people, and cancellations of major conventions. RELATED: San Diego County announces five new coronavirus cases, bans large gatherings"There's not going to be customers, sales are going to go very low, and I'm concerned just how long is this going to last?" said Sara Long, a server at downtown's Cold Beers and Cheeseburgers. Long said hours have been as fewer customers come in. She noted that a convention happening at the convention center that was supposed to attract 8,000 people only saw a fraction of those attendees. John McKlosky was one of those attendees, lamenting the shell of the Fiber Optic conference he attends annually. RELATED: What's been canceled, postponed in San Diego, nationally due to coronavirus"I walked in and was practically the only person standing on the carpet," McKlosky said. "I've talked to restaurant owners, hotel owners, even the Uber drivers that are running me around. They're devastated."Already, five conventions through May have postponed or canceled, meaning 43,000 potential customers won't be coming downtown. The quick drop off of overnight guests is impacting more than just hotels in downtown, but also lodging in surrounding areas that get a spill over. RELATED: Disneyland, California Adventure to close through March due to coronavirusElvin Lai, who owns the Ocean Park Inn in Pacific Beach, said he is normally at 100 percent capacity at this time of year but is now around 20 percent. He also hasn't filled 10 positions he normally would. Lai reacted with shock at President Trump's announcement of the 30-day ban of travel from Europe. "My head exploded," said Lai, also the president of the San Diego County Lodging Association. "I can't speak for them but the San Diego airport is seeing major drops in travel coming to town. That doesn't help."RELATED: San Diego casinos not gambling with coronavirus safetyAndy Hall, an executive at the San Diego Workforce Partnership, said the agency is cross-training workers as they expect more layoff notices to come in. 2449

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) - Family members of a DUI crash victim shared emotional stories about their loss at the driver’s sentencing hearing Friday. Lauren Freeman cried as statements were made about the Feb. 2018 crash in Ocean Beach. Prosecutors said Freeman drove the wrong way on a transition ramp between I-5 and I-8, crashing into Justin Callahan’s car. “I'm Justin's father, he is buried next to his sister who died in 2005. So I think that there's a rule somewhere that children aren't supposed to die before the parents,” said Callahan’s father. Callahan was headed home to Ocean Beach from his job in Chula Vista when he died. RELATED: DUI driver pleads guilty to 2018 wrong-way crash on I-5 rampDuring the hearing, Freeman gave a tearful apology, saying she would do anything to change what happened that night. She also said she hopes Callahan’s family can one day find it in their hearts to forgive her. Freeman pleaded guilty to several charges, including gross vehicular manslaughter while intoxicated. She was originally charged with murder but that was dropped during a plea deal. As part of her agreement, Freeman will serve 11 years, eight months in prison. 1176

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) - Hundreds of people packed the stands at the Coronado High School football field Friday, for a celebration of life in honor of Justin Meek.The Coronado High School graduate was one of the 12 people killed at the Thousand Oaks shooting on Nov. 7.The 23-year-old is remembered as a hometown hero, as he died helping protect others from the gunman’s bullets.RELATED: Coronado native among victims of the Thousand Oaks bar shootingMeek moved to Thousand Oaks to attend California Lutheran University. He worked at the Borderline Bar and Grill. Though he often worked as a security guard, the night of the shooting, he and his sister were working as promoters for ‘College Night’ events. When the gunshots started, Justin began helping people get out of harm's way. He was shielding them from gunfire when he was shot and killed. His sister made it out of the bar. The Meek family released a written statement that described Justin’s strong interest in the safety of others since Sept. 11. RELATED: High school students show thanks, one to his sister who survived the Borderline Bar Shooting“Justin wanted to part of the solution, to serve, to protect,” the statement reads.Meek was a criminal justice major with a minor in music. After college, Meek's family said he wanted to join the Coast Guard and then go on to become a U.S. Marshall. Meek’s mother served in the Air Force, his father served in the Navy, and he too felt a strong call to service.“Justin was a genuine, kind, loving, caring, compassionate, hardworking, talented man and a friend to everyone he met,” the statement reads. “He was a loving son, protective brother, and hero to all.”There is a paddle out for Meek on Saturday morning. There will be a church service of him on Sunday. 1775

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