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As the Summer of COVID draws to a close, many experts fear an even bleaker fall and suggest that American families should start planning for Thanksgiving by Zoom.Because of the many uncertainties, public health scientists say it’s easier to forecast the weather on Thanksgiving Day than to predict how the U.S. coronavirus crisis will play out this autumn. But school reopenings, holiday travel and more indoor activity because of colder weather could all separately increase transmission of the virus and combine in ways that could multiply the threat, they say.Here’s one way it could go: As more schools open for in-person instruction and more college students return to campuses, small clusters of cases could widen into outbreaks in late September. Public fatigue over mask rules and other restrictions could stymie efforts to slow these infections.A few weeks later, widening outbreaks could start to strain hospitals. If a bad flu season peaks in October, as happened in 2009, the pressure on the health care system could result in higher daily death tolls from the coronavirus. Dr. Robert Redfield, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, has said that scenario is his biggest fear.One certainty is that the virus will still be around, said Jarad Niemi, a disease-modeling expert at Iowa State University.“We will not have a vaccine yet and we will not have enough infected individuals for herd immunity to be helpful,” Niemi said.Fall may feel like a roller coaster of stop-and-start restrictions, as communities react to climbing hospital cases, said University of Texas disease modeler Lauren Ancel Meyers. Everyone should get a flu shot, she said, because if flu spreads widely, hospitals will begin to buckle and “that will compound the threat of COVID.”“The decisions we make today will fundamentally impact the safety and feasibility of what we can do next month and by Thanksgiving,” Meyers said.The virus is blamed for over 180,000 deaths and 6 million confirmed infections in the U.S. Worldwide, the death toll is put at almost 850,000, with over 25 million cases.The U.S. is recording on average about 900 deaths a day from COVID-19, and newly confirmed infections per day are running at about 42,000, down from their peak in mid-July, when cases were topping out at over 70,000.Around the country, a chicken processing plant in California will close this week for deep cleaning after nearly 400 workers got sick, including eight who died. And college campuses have been hit by outbreaks involving hundreds of students, blamed in some cases on too much partying. Schools including the University of North Carolina, Michigan State and Notre Dame have moved instruction online because of clusters on their campuses.Several vaccines are in advanced testing, and researchers hope to have results later this year. But even if a vaccine is declared safe and effective by year’s end, as some expect, there won’t be enough for everyone who wants it right away.Several companies are developing rapid, at-home tests, which conceivably could be used by families before a Thanksgiving gathering, but none has yet won approval.More than 90 million adults are over 65 or have health problems, putting them in higher danger of severe consequences if they get sick with the coronavirus. Many of them and their families are starting to decide whether to book holiday flights.Cassie Docking, 44, an urgent care nurse in Seattle, is telling her parents — both cancer survivors — that Thanksgiving will be by FaceTime only.“We all want to get to 2021,” she said, “and if that’s what it takes, that’s what we’ll do.”Caitlin Joyce’s family is forging ahead with a holiday feast. They plan to set up plywood tables on sawhorses in a large garage so they can sit 6 feet apart.“We’ll be in our coats and our sweaters,” said Joyce, 30, of Edmonds, Washington, who plans to travel to her grandparents’ home in Virginia. “It will be almost like camping.”One widely cited disease model projects 2,086 U.S. deaths per day by Thanksgiving, more than double compared with today.“In our family we will not have our extended family get-together. We will stick to the nuclear family,” said Dr. Christopher Murray of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, one of the few models making a prediction for November.Uncertainty is huge in Murray’s model: Daily deaths could be as low as 1,500 by Thanksgiving or as high as 3,100. In a more optimistic scenario, daily deaths could range from 510 to 1,200 if nearly everyone wears masks. A more pessimistic scenario? From 2,700 to 6,500 daily deaths if social distancing rules continue to be lifted and are not reimposed.With all the uncertainty, most disease modelers aren’t looking that far ahead — at least officially.Jeffrey Shaman, a public health expert at Columbia University, thinks the virus will spread more easily as the weather forces people indoors: “But what level of a bump? That’s hard to say.”At Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh, computer scientist Roni Rosenfeld’s team uses machine learning to project COVID-19 deaths. The team’s computer algorithm learns from patterns it finds in state and county data to improve its forecasts.A five-time winner of a CDC competition for predicting flu season activity, Rosenfeld thinks his model’s COVID-19 projections aren’t very useful beyond four weeks because of the wild card of human behavior, including that of government officials.“What happens very much depends on us,” he said. “People, myself included, don’t always behave rationally.” Presented with the same facts, “the same person might behave differently depending on how sick and tired they are of the situation.”Like other disease modelers, Rosenfeld said the virus will still be with us at Thanksgiving, readily spreading at family gatherings. While his plans may yet change, he said he is going to travel with his wife to visit their adult children. They will wear masks and keep a safe distance during the visit.___The Associated Press Health and Science Department receives support from the Howard Hughes Medical Institute’s Department of Science Education. The AP is solely responsible for all content. 6201
As the debate about mask mandates continues in some states, a new study reportedly shows social distancing is just as important to reduce the spread of COVID-19. The study looked at the effectiveness of face coverings when someone coughs repeatedly, coughing is one of the symptoms of COVID-19.The study was published in a June issue of “Physics of Fluid”, by AIP Publishing, and was conducted by Talib Dbouk and Dimitris Drikakis from the University of Nicosia in Cyprus.The researchers used computer modeling to show the range of saliva droplets when people cough. Previous work from this group showed saliva can travel about 18 feet when a person coughs and is not wearing a mask or covering their mouth.This new study built on that research to add in the variables of face coverings and repeated coughing. They used information available about filters used in surgical masks. 887
AUBURN HILLS, Mich. — Faculty and staff at Oakland University in Rochester, Michigan are being trained to fight active shooters in a unique way – by using hockey pucks. University police are conducting the training sessions, which were organized by the OU Union and the American Association of University Professors, to improve classroom safety for all. The use of hockey pucks allows those vulnerable to an active shooter attack to fight back with something heavy that will also cause a distraction, according to OU Police Chief Mark Gordon. "Hockey pucks provide the ability to be carried in briefcases or backpacks, are not considered a weapon and will meet the goal of distracting the shooter,” Gordon said. The OU Union has distributed hockey pucks to 800 of its members and will distribute an additional 1,700 pucks to students. "Part of the strategy for fighting is you need to create a distraction to give yourself time as a group in a classroom to rush the gunman so you can get your hands on the gun and take it away from the shooter," Gordon said.Although police and organizers find the pucks to be a good solution to the threat of a mass shooting, some students on campus disagree."I found it, at first, absurd," said Adam Kalajian, a third-year student at OU. "What good will it do? I mean, there’s an armed person coming in, why would you chuck a puck at them? What’s it going to do? Nothing." Jacob Gora, a fifth-year senior, echoed the same sentiment. "If I was to give you a puck and I had a gun, would I be able to take you out easily?" Gora asked. "I mean, a puck isn’t going to distract me or stop me from shooting someone."According to a release, the pucks also serve a second purpose. They're being used as a fundraising tool to equip all campus classroom doors with a lock that can be used without exiting the room in the event of an emergency. Already, ,000 has been raised for interior classroom locks through donations from the union and the Oakland University Student Congress.To view OU's active shooter guidelines, click here. But be warned — the reenactments in the training video are graphic. 2225
ATLANTA — Georgia's legislature on Tuesday passed hate crimes legislation deemed essential by state leaders, sending the measure to Gov. Brian Kemp's desk.Georgia is currently one of four states in the U.S. without hate crime laws.The price Republicans exacted for moving that legislation forward was the simultaneous passage of a bill that would mandate penalties for crimes targeting police and other first responders.The action comes after Senate Republicans had added police as a protected class to the hate crimes legislation last week, but then moved those protections to a separate bill in a deal between the parties.Kemp's office said in a statement that he'd sign the hate crimes bill, pending a legal review.The bill's passage comes amid weeks-long protests against systemic racism throughout the country. The protests were sparked by the death of George Floyd, who died in police custody in Minneapolis after bystander video showed an officer kneeling on his neck for more than eight minutes.The passage also comes weeks after three arrests were made in connection with the shooting death of Ahmaud Arbery. The 25-year-old Arbery was killed in Burnswick, Georgia in February, and his case changed jurisdictions several times due to one of the suspect's connections with the local District Attorney's office. It wasn't until days after a video of the altercation leaked to the public in May that two of the men, Gregory and Travis McMichael, were arrested and charged with murder. A third man, William "Roddy" Bryan, was also charged with murder a few weeks later. 1582
As the NBA prepares to resume the 2020-21 season tomorrow, basketball commissioner Adam Silver told Good Morning America on Wednesday that the league would “cease completely” if an outbreak of the virus occurred within the league.Silver’s comments come as baseball’s Miami Marlins has had a number of its players and coaches test positive for the virus in recent days, forcing the team to suspend play for the week. Likewise, the Philadelphia Phillies, which played the Marlins last weekend, have suspended several games this week.“it’s not an exact science because nobody’s ever done this before,” Silver said. “I think we have plans in place where we might pause, similar to what baseball is doing now. Probably, if we had any significant spread is immediately stop. One thing we’d try do is try to track those cases to determine where they’re coming from and whether there had been spread on campus. Ultimately, I think we would cease completely if we saw that it was spreading around the campus and something more than an isolated case was happening."Unlike baseball, basketball has kept its players in a “bubble” in Orlando, Florida. Even though the virus is circulating through the state, the latest round of COVID-19 tests showed no players or coaches tested positive for the virus in Orlando.But that hasn’t stopped Silver from being anxious about the resumption of play. After all, it took just positive test, Utah Jazz star Rudy Gobert, to shut down the league back in March.“There is a high case rate in Florida down in Orange County, where Orlando is, as well obviously what is happening in baseball with the Marlins, so it is something we are keeping track of very closely,” Silver said. “We have confidence in this protocol that we designed… Everyone that is on that campus is tested on a daily basis.”The MLS and NHL have followed similar plans by isolating players. Both leagues have in recent days not reported any COVID-19 cases. The MLS had two teams withdraw from its mid-season tournament due to the spread of the virus, but has been virus free for two weeks. 2089