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The University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation has been issuing frequent projections since March in an attempt to model the spread and impact of the coronavirus across the world.The models have been used by the CDC and White House coronavirus task force in an effort to better understand the potential number of deaths the coronavirus could cause.On Friday, the model added a new variable, one that could cause a steep decline of coronavirus deaths throughout the US. The IHME’s newest model, which predicts the number of coronavirus deaths in the US through the end of March, is now weighing the potential impact of vaccines on the virus.For those hoping for an immediate drop in hospitalizations and deaths caused by the coronavirus as soon as vaccinations begin later this month might be disappointed. The IHME's model shows the initial batch of vaccinations will have a relatively muted effect on deaths and hospitalizations initially. While by April 1, much of the general US population will likely not be fully vaccinated, many in the high-risk category should expect to vaccinated by then. How fast they get vaccinated will play a role in determining the number of coronavirus deaths in the US.As of Friday evening, there have been over 278,000 coronavirus-related deaths reported throughout the US, per Johns Hopkins University data. Without any vaccines reaching Americans, the IHME’s model projects a total of 548,000 would die from the coronavirus through April 1, meaning 270,000 deaths between now and then.If COVID-19 vaccines are distributed at expected levels, 9,000 lives would be saved by April 1, reducing the number of deaths between now and then to 261,000. But a rapid vaccine rollout – one that would vaccinate the high-risk population and begin to vaccinate the general population by the spring -- would result in 250,000 deaths between now and April 1.“Mass scale-up of vaccination in 2021 means we have a path back to normal life, but there are still a few rough months ahead,” said Dr. Christopher Murray, IHME director. “We must be vigilant in protecting ourselves at least through April, when, as our projections indicate, vaccines will begin to have an impact.”In the meantime, Murray says universal mask wearing and social distancing will save more lives than a potential vaccine in the next four months.“Especially in the Northern Hemisphere, it’s crucial for governments to impose or re-impose mandates that limit gatherings and require masks. Where the winter surge is driving spikes in infections, there will be many people who can still become infected and possibly die before the vaccine is fully rolled out,” said Murray.To see the IHME’s state-by-state projections for deaths, hospitalizations and cases, clickhere. 2790

The Walt Disney Co. is planning to lay off 28,000 workers in its theme parks division in California and Florida.The company has been squeezed by limits on attendance at its parks and other restrictions due to the pandemic. Officials said Tuesday that two-thirds of the planned layoffs involve part-time workers but they ranged from salaried employees to nonunion hourly workers.In addition to the 28,000 nonunion workers, Disney said it is discussing next steps with unionized cast members.Disney’s parks closed last spring as the pandemic started spreading in the U.S. The Florida parks reopened this summer, but the California parks have yet to reopen as the company awaits guidance from the state of California.Disney along with local officials, have pressured California officials to resume operations at Disneyland. Disneyland has been ordered to remain closed by California Gov. Gavin Newsom.Newsom said a month ago that he would have an announcement soon on plans to allow for a reopening of amusement parks in California, including Disneyland.“In light of the prolonged impact of COVID-19 on our business, including limited capacity due to physical distancing requirements and the continued uncertainty regarding the duration of the pandemic – exacerbated in California by the State’s unwillingness to lift restrictions that would allow Disneyland to reopen – we have made the very difficult decision to begin the process of reducing our workforce at our Parks, Experiences and Products segment at all levels, having kept non-working Cast Members on furlough since April, while paying healthcare benefits,” said Josh D’Amaro, Disney Parks chairman. “Approximately 28,000 domestic employees will be affected, of which about 67% are part-time. We are talking with impacted employees as well as to the unions on next steps for union-represented Cast Members.” 1872

The Temple University Board of Trustees decided Friday to rescind the honorary degree it gave to Bill Cosby, one of its most famous alums and a former trustee.In a three-sentence statement, the university said the decision was due to his conviction Thursday on three counts of aggravated indecent assault."In 1991, based on his career achievements, Temple awarded an honorary degree to William Cosby," the statement said. "Yesterday, Dr. Cosby was found guilty by a jury of the felony of aggravated sexual assault. Today the Temple University Board of Trustees has accepted the recommendation of the University to rescind the honorary degree."Cosby graduated from Temple and had been on the Board of Trustees for 32 years until he resigned in 2014 amid accusations that he sexually assaulted dozens of women over decades."I have always been proud of my association with Temple University," Cosby said in a statement released by the university at the time. "I have always wanted to do what would be in the best interests of the university and its students. As a result, I have tendered my resignation from the Temple University Board of Trustees."Through his powerful role at Temple, he met Andrea Constand, who worked for the university's women's basketball team. Cosby was found guilty of drugging and assaulting Constand at his home outside Philadelphia in January 2004.The-CNN-Wire 1392

The U.S. Postal Service agreed Wednesday to reverse changes that slowed mail service nationwide, settling a lawsuit filed by Montana Gov. Steve Bullock during a pandemic that is expected to force many more people to vote by mail.The lawsuit filed against Postmaster General Louis DeJoy and the U.S. Postal Service on Sept. 9 argued changes implemented in June harmed access to mail services in Montana, resulting in delayed delivery of medical prescriptions, payments, and job applications, and impeding the ability of Montana residents to vote by mail.The postal service agreed to reverse all changes, which included reduced retail hours, removal of collection boxes and mail sorting machines, closure or consolidation of mail processing facilities, restriction of late or extra trips for timely mail delivery, and banning or restricting overtime.The agreement also requires the Postal Service to prioritize election mail.The settlement agreement was reached a day ahead of a hearing in the U.S. District Court in Great Falls. It applies to all states.“Montanans never gave up this fight and as a result, we are ensuring stability through and beyond the election by immediately restoring the mail services folks rely on, whether it’s receiving vital medication or ensuring they can pay their bills on time,” Bullock said in a statement.A spokesperson for the U.S. Postal Service did not immediately respond to an email seeking comment.Many more voters are expected to vote by mail this November to limit the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. The majority of Montana counties are holding elections by mail, after a directive by Bullock permitted them to do so to limit the spread of the coronavirus. Bullock is running for a seat in the U.S. Senate.The agreement comes after a federal judge temporarily blocked the controversial Postal Service changes on Sept. 17, calling the changes “a politically motivated attack on the efficiency of the Postal Service” before the November election.Judge Stanley Bastian in Yakima, Washington, issued the nationwide preliminary injunction sought by 14 states that brought forward a separate suit against the Trump administration and the U.S. Postal Service. The 14 states, led by Democratic attorneys general, expressed concern that delays might result in voters not receiving ballots or registration forms in time.Following a national uproar last month, DeJoy, a major donor to President Donald Trump and the GOP, announced he was suspending some of the changes, including the removal of mail collection boxes, but other changes remained in place.___This story has been corrected to accurately spell the name of Louis DeJoy.___Samuels is a corps member for the Associated Press/Report for America Statehouse News Initiative. Report for America is a nonprofit national service program that places journalists in local newsrooms to report on undercovered issues. 2906

The state of Kentucky announced Feb. 13 it would begin paying relatives who provide care for displaced children the same stipend as foster parents -- about 0 per month per child.Norma Hatfield, who has cared for her two grandchildren since 2014, welcomed the news. Although she was able to provide for the pair without state assistance, she said Monday that few grandparents in her position have the same financial resources."We didn't get a phone call," Hatfield said, when her grandchildren were removed from their parents' care after the youngest ingested meth from a spoon. She found out when she arrived at their home the next day and discovered it empty. She had been planning to take them to Disney World."That's when my whole world changed," she said. While the Hatfield family's case winded its way through the courts, "I started meeting all these grandparents that were struggling -- taking in kids and, financially, they are going broke. There were heavily in debt and had court fees."Moved by her experiences watching other men and women struggle to raise children for whom they had never expected to be responsible, Hatfield began petitioning the state to bring back kinship care, which would specifically create an allowance for those permanently caring for their relatives' children. "It's so the kids stay with that family instead of foster care," she said.The United States 6th Circuit Court of Appeals ruled in October 2017 that Kentucky would be required to pay relatives who temporarily house children the same fee as foster parents.Although only 16 families will have received such payments by the end of February, the Kentucky Cabinet for Health and Family Services estimated by June 2019 the payments could affect 1,590 children and total about .3 million."It's a start," Hatfield said, although she would still prefer the establishment of a fund for relatives who will care for their kin permanently -- not just on a temporary basis. "It's something families would be grateful to have." 2034