昌吉没有晨勃怎么回事(昌吉现在无痛打胎大约多少钱) (今日更新中)

On their surface, a lot polls got the 2016 election wrong. As late as October 23, 2016, an ABC News poll had Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by 12%.But pollsters say that polls like the one conducted by ABC News do not even tell the whole story.“National polls are very helpful in giving us a sense of who might win the popular vote. In that regard, 2016 polls were relatively accurate,” said Emily Goodman is a principal at EMC Research, a nationwide polling firm.Hilary Clinton won the popular vote by about 2.8 million votes or 2%. In the last week of the election, many polls had tightened to have Clinton winning by about 2 to 5 percent. Goodman says a lot of people don’t understand polls.“One of the most important things to know about polls is that, they’re just a point in time, it’s a snapshot,” she said. There are a few key things you should look for when it comes to polling, the first being you don’t win the presidency by winning the popular vote.“The path to the presidency is by winning 270 Electoral College votes and that is why the state by state polling is incredibly important,” said Goodman. So nationwide polling won’t tell you who will win. Instead, state by state polling is more helpful.There’s also a few other things you should look for if you see a poll on the news, social media or other places.“The first is timeline, when was it conducted? Are you looking at a poll that was very recent, or a poll that was conducted months ago? Who the poll is conducted among. So are you looking at a poll of adults, are you looking at a poll of registered voters, of likely voters, or some other subset of the population? The sample size, that is, how many people were actually included in the poll? That ultimately tells you what the margin of error is. How the poll was conducted, what was the methodology? Was it conducted on telephone and did those phones include landlines and cellphones? Was it conducted online, over text?” Goodman explains. One key thing there, how polling respondents are reached, and it’s one thing that a pollster who got the 2016 election right says is key.“I don’t want the public face, I want what you really think because your real opinions are what go in that voting booth with you, when nobody is looking," said Robert Cahaly, the lead pollster for the Trafalgar Group,In 2016, Trafalgar projected Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Florida for Donald Trump. He says in 2016, there was a group of hidden Trump supporters. He said it’s a result of what’s called the Social Desirability Bias.“When you speak to a live person on the phone, you tend, especially when you know they know who you are, you tend to give an answer to a question that you think will make you look best in the mind of the person you’re talking to versus your true feeling,” he said. Cahaley says to some people, being seen as a Trump supporter is so undesirable, they won’t tell the truth to people conducting polls on the phone. He’s seeing the same exact thing in 2020 he saw in 2016 and that traditional polling may not be accounting for this.However, Goodman says that the industry is expanding how to reach respondents.“What used to be the gold standard of telephone surveys, exclusively landlines, is no longer appropriate. Cellphones, but beyond just having someone just call up a voter on your cellphone, we’re also now including texting, emailing, that includes a link to take a survey online and using a mix of those methodologies really helps get a representative sample of likely voters,”Both pollsters do agree on one thing however, this election will come down to turn out.“A lot of this is really going to come down to turn out,” said Goodman. “This thing has never been a persuasion election, I’ve said that from the beginning, it’s a motivational election. Whichever side turns out their people is going to win this race, and it’s that simple,” said Cahaley. 3923

On the left: Nancy Pelosi today shaming Americans, saying "you must wear your mask."On the right: Nancy Pelosi yesterday violating covid rules for salons and not wearing a mask. https://t.co/vUfa9fsCsT pic.twitter.com/aUveM3Fn9m— Trump War Room - Text TRUMP to 88022 (@TrumpWarRoom) September 1, 2020 308

On Thursday, Facebook said it would not accept new political ads in the week leading up to the 2020 election in an effort to protect the integrity of U.S. elections.Facebook also announced Thursday that the platform would remove any posts that "claim people will get COVID-19 if they take part in voting," and will add more information to any posts that attempt to suppress the vote with the threat of the virus.In addition, the company will add more information to posts that attempt to "delegitimize" the outcome of the election or "discuss" the legitimacy of voting methods.Finally, Facebook said it would add more information to posts from political candidates that attempt to claim victory before final results are tallied. The company says it will rely on "official results from Reuters and the National Election Pool."Facebook faced criticism for neglecting to combat the spread of disinformation prior to the 2016 election. U.S. officials say Russians used the platform to boost divisive and misleading information during that election, and reports indicate that several other countries are attempting to influence the 2020 election. 1149

One soldier has been killed and seven others have been injured after an explosion occurred during a training exercise at Fort Bragg in North Carolina.WTVD-TV reports that the explosion occurred when a vehicle rolled over. Reports originally indicated that as many as 15 soldiers had been injured.WTVD reported that Staff Sgt. Alexander P. Dalida, 32, of Dunstable, Massachusetts, died during a training exercise. According to to WRAL-TV, the soldiers were transported to a local hospital via medical helicopter. All the solider were part of the Army Special Operations Command, or USASOC."There was an incident that occurred on one of the ranges," Lt. Col. Rob Bockholt told WTVD, and he added that the command is investigating. "We're looking into exactly what happened." 815

OCEANSIDE, Calif. -- Crime Stoppers Monday said they are offering a reward for information on the suspect police say killed a 77-year-old man.According to a tweet from Oceanside Police, Crime Stoppers is offering up to a ,000 reward for information leading to the arrest in the alleged murder of John Roth.Police say Roth was discovered dead by his wife when she returned home from work. Roth’s 41-year-old wife told police she noticed the garage door was open when she got home.RELATED: Oceanside police investigate death of 77-year-old manPolice said Roth died after he “sustained trauma to his upper body.” Anyone with information on the case is asked to call 888-580-8477. 691

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