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SAN DIEGO (KGTV) — The latest ABC News national polling average shows former Vice President Joe Biden leading President Donald Trump by 8 points.But a lot of people are wondering, can we trust the polls after what happened in 2016?The last time Donald Trump was on the ballot in 2016, the polls had him trailing former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton by an average of 3.2 percentage points, and we know what happened.However, pollsters weren’t off by as much as you might think.“At the national level, the polling was, remarkably, given all things, precise,” said Jay Leve, CEO of the polling firm SurveyUSA.Trump lost the popular vote by 2.1 points instead of 3.2, the most accurate these national polls had been in 80 years, according to an analysis by the American Association for Public Opinion Research.Where the polls did miss badly was at the state level, particularly in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, three states that were critical in the Electoral College.Leve said there were several reasons for the polling problems at the state level.“Polling is a very expensive undertaking and so it is not possible for the handful of media organizations with pockets deep enough to afford a public opinion poll to be able to poll in every critical battleground state,” he said.Another reason? “Some of it has to do with what’s called ‘weighting,’” he added.To understand weighting, you have to know the two R’s of a good poll: it needs to be representative and random.Random samples are critical to the accuracy of polling, and you can look to your kitchen for an example why. Picture adding salt to a soup. If you mix it right, you can check the taste with any one spoonful -- you don’t have to eat the entire pot. That’s because each spoonful is a truly random sample.If you don’t mix the salt in, you could easily wind up sampling a part of the soup without any salt.When you’re trying to sample the American public with a political poll, either over the phone or most of the time now online, it’s more challenging to get a perfectly random spoonful.“The challenge is to find the individuals in the right numbers and secure their cooperation. Those two things don’t automatically work in sync,” Leve said. “People don’t want to be disturbed. They want privacy and a pollster by definition is an interruption.”It turns out, certain people tend to resist taking polls, while others are more willing. Research shows people with college degrees are more likely to respond to surveys than high school grads.That means surveys run the risk of not being representative of the voter population at large, and Leve said that kind of imbalance played a big role in 2016.To make a sample representative, pollsters gather up as many responses as they can, then adjust them with a process called weighting -- basically boosting or shrinking responses from people with certain demographics to match census data and the expected turnout.“The weighting criteria that was in issue in 2016 was whether you had enough non-college educated white voters in your sample,” Leve said. “If you did, you got the Trump forecast correct.”State polls that didn’t weight by education level missed badly, because to an extent far greater than in previous elections, voters with a college education broke for Clinton while voters with a high school education backed Trump.There’s some evidence that pollsters have learned from their 2016 mistakes. Polling in the 2018 midterms was very accurate -- a full point better than the average over the last 20 years.So can we trust the polls this time around?Leve says yes, as long as you remember that polls are just a snapshot in time and Donald Trump is difficult to predict.“Don’t be surprised if something happens in the final four, five, six days of the election, right before November 3rd, that’s so unforeseeable that neither you nor I nor anyone watching us could have imagined. And if so, that’s going to throw all the polls off,” he said. 3979

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) - The family of a California Firefighter is hoping for his safe return after authorities in Mexico arrested two people linked to the case.Authorities announced on Friday that they had arrested a couple linked to the case. The couple has been identified as 32-year-old Fanny N. and 27-year-old Santos N.They say the couple had bank cards with Aguilar's name on them, and the cards were used at businesses in Ensenada, Rosarito, and Tijuana. The arrest was made Thursday.Aguilar disappeared in August when we went to his second home in Baja California.According to Mexican authorities, Aguilar had arranged to meet with one of the suspects at a Rosarito address. They believe it could have been a set up to kidnap him. Aguilar tried to escape.Authorities say neighbors heard gunshots and investigators found bloodstains in the area, but they have not been able to locate Aguilar.Aguilar's cousin in San Diego county, Nancy, says she is hopeful that her cousin will be found."I have faith that he's out there alive, and we are going to find him," she said.Authorities are questioning the suspects for leads. 1129

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) — Sweetwater Union High School District is in the hole million, following a series of budget shortfalls and fiscal mismanagement, according to an independent audit of the school district.This week, the state agency Fiscal Crisis & Management Assistance Team issued a dire warning to the school district's board: The state could be coming if their debt isn't made right. Here's a look at when the budget shortfall was discovered and what moves have been made in an attempt to fix the financial mess in the South Bay:SWEETWATER BUDGET CRISIS:Financial failures rouse growing concerns in board meeting300 Sweetwater district employees, teachers take early retirementSweetwater Union High School district budget woes worse than predictedParents worry about cuts coming to Sweetwater Union High School DistrictSweetwater Union High School District passes revised budgetSweetwater scrambling to fix million budget mistake 952

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) - The eight-legged population is overrunning parts of Balboa Park a bit earlier than usual this year.Spider season is in full bloom in San Diego. From Rancho Penasquitos to downtown, people say they are finding webs just about everywhere including hiking trailsOne person wrote on a local Reddit thread they stopped hiking because there were so many webs.Chris Conlan works with San Diego County Vector Control and says there's nothing on usual with what folks are seeing.“They hatch out in the spring and they’re small and make very small webs,” said Conlan. "But as they begin to grow over the course of the summer and beginning of fall where we are right now, they’re much larger they tend to spin bigger webs and those are they kind of webs people walk into freak out and do the spider dance."Conlan says the webs people are bumping into on trails are likely orb weavers’. They are poisonous, but their venom is not toxic to humans like other spiders.“It’s really just the black and the brown widow that people need to worry about and they tend to spin more out of the way webs in corners and dark places," said Conlan. "They’re not the type of web you’re just going to go walking through."Conlan’s advice for folks’ encountering spider’s homes is as good anyone’s.“Carry a stick in front of you,” said Conlan with a laugh. "And be prepared to wipe web off your face from time to time.” 1420

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) – The affidavit accusing San Diego County Congressman Duncan Hunter and his wife, Margaret, of prohibited use of campaign contributions, provides shocking details about how the couple allegedly spent the money and covered it up.The grand jury's indictment accused Hunter and his wife of misusing campaign funds on everything from vacations to tequila shots at a restaurant.The affidavit says the Hunters made purchases with campaign funds including more than ,000 for a family trip to Italy, more than ,300 for purchases at Costco, and more than ,000 for airline tickets and hotel rooms for their family and friends.GALLERY: Alleged instances of campaign fund misuse in Hunter affidavitNumerous alleged charges also cover amounts in the hundreds at grocery and retail stores and restaurants, including one charge in 2015 at Disneyland totaling 9.44 for Minnie Mouse Ear headbands and apparel, and another in 2016 for "30 tequila shots and one steak" totaling 2.46 at a restaurant.Charges listed in the affidavit span from San Diego County locales to Washington, D.C."The Hunters illegally converted and stole more than 0,000 in campaign funds to purchase goods and services for their personal use and enjoyment," the affidavit reads. "The Hunters disregarded rules implement by the Treasurer to track legitimate expenses ... and, when pressed by the Treasurer to comply, dismissed the rules as 'silly.'"RELATED: Congressman Duncan Hunter and wife indicted for campaign fund misuseHunter has repeatedly denied any wrongdoing or campaign fund misuse. Tuesday, he categorized the indictment as a "politically motivated" attack."We’re excited about going to trial with this, frankly," Hunter said of the indictment. "This is modern politics and modern media mixed in with law enforcement that has a political agenda. That’s the new Department of Justice."The affidavit says the Hunters overdrew their bank account more than 1,100 times, resulting in bank overdraft fees of about ,761.RELATED: San Diego Congressman Duncan Hunter addresses federal indictment in 10News interviewAs the U.S. Representative for District 50, Hunter has an annual salary of 4,000, according to ballotpedia.org. 2283