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SAN DIEGO (KGTV) — The latest ABC News national polling average shows former Vice President Joe Biden leading President Donald Trump by 8 points.But a lot of people are wondering, can we trust the polls after what happened in 2016?The last time Donald Trump was on the ballot in 2016, the polls had him trailing former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton by an average of 3.2 percentage points, and we know what happened.However, pollsters weren’t off by as much as you might think.“At the national level, the polling was, remarkably, given all things, precise,” said Jay Leve, CEO of the polling firm SurveyUSA.Trump lost the popular vote by 2.1 points instead of 3.2, the most accurate these national polls had been in 80 years, according to an analysis by the American Association for Public Opinion Research.Where the polls did miss badly was at the state level, particularly in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, three states that were critical in the Electoral College.Leve said there were several reasons for the polling problems at the state level.“Polling is a very expensive undertaking and so it is not possible for the handful of media organizations with pockets deep enough to afford a public opinion poll to be able to poll in every critical battleground state,” he said.Another reason? “Some of it has to do with what’s called ‘weighting,’” he added.To understand weighting, you have to know the two R’s of a good poll: it needs to be representative and random.Random samples are critical to the accuracy of polling, and you can look to your kitchen for an example why. Picture adding salt to a soup. If you mix it right, you can check the taste with any one spoonful -- you don’t have to eat the entire pot. That’s because each spoonful is a truly random sample.If you don’t mix the salt in, you could easily wind up sampling a part of the soup without any salt.When you’re trying to sample the American public with a political poll, either over the phone or most of the time now online, it’s more challenging to get a perfectly random spoonful.“The challenge is to find the individuals in the right numbers and secure their cooperation. Those two things don’t automatically work in sync,” Leve said. “People don’t want to be disturbed. They want privacy and a pollster by definition is an interruption.”It turns out, certain people tend to resist taking polls, while others are more willing. Research shows people with college degrees are more likely to respond to surveys than high school grads.That means surveys run the risk of not being representative of the voter population at large, and Leve said that kind of imbalance played a big role in 2016.To make a sample representative, pollsters gather up as many responses as they can, then adjust them with a process called weighting -- basically boosting or shrinking responses from people with certain demographics to match census data and the expected turnout.“The weighting criteria that was in issue in 2016 was whether you had enough non-college educated white voters in your sample,” Leve said. “If you did, you got the Trump forecast correct.”State polls that didn’t weight by education level missed badly, because to an extent far greater than in previous elections, voters with a college education broke for Clinton while voters with a high school education backed Trump.There’s some evidence that pollsters have learned from their 2016 mistakes. Polling in the 2018 midterms was very accurate -- a full point better than the average over the last 20 years.So can we trust the polls this time around?Leve says yes, as long as you remember that polls are just a snapshot in time and Donald Trump is difficult to predict.“Don’t be surprised if something happens in the final four, five, six days of the election, right before November 3rd, that’s so unforeseeable that neither you nor I nor anyone watching us could have imagined. And if so, that’s going to throw all the polls off,” he said. 3979

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) — The county Sheriff's Department is offering free in-home safety inspections to San Diegans in their patrol areas. On Thursday, 10News tagged along for an inspection at Robin and Mike Judd's home in Santee. "It's a concern, in today's world, security, how safe are you? And you can never be too safe," Robin said. Crime prevention specialists Mike Mateo and Monica Cordero spent about an hour inside the home, pointing out potential flaws concerning locks, lighting, and outdoor decorations that could be used to break windows.The duo also gave information on crime prevention and neighborhood watch programs to use as preventative measures to local crime.To arrange for an in-home inspection, San Diegans can call their local sheriff's substation and ask for crime prevention.You can find a list of the contacts here. 846

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) -- The holiday season may look different this year, but organizations around the county are making the most of the situation.Instead of large gatherings, many San Diego holiday favorites are going virtual while others adapt to the changes in unique ways.(NOTE: SOME EVENTS MAY BE CLOSED FOR A PORTION OF DECEMBER DUE TO CALIFORNIA'S NEW REGIONAL STAY-AT-HOME ORDER.)See the list below for more:Taste of December NightsThis year, Balboa Park’s famed December Nights will look a little different. Swapped for the usual hustle and bustle is Taste of December Nights. The event takes place from Friday, December 4 through Sunday, December 6 from 11 a.m. to 10 p.m. and will feature more than 20 food trucks and vendors. Organizers say all safety protocols by the county will be strictly enforced. This year, customers must remain in their cars and everyone must wear a mask. Click here for more information on the event.Lawrence Family Jewish Community Center Hanukkah CelebrationThis year, the center is hosting a socially distanced traveling Hanukkah celebration. "Hanukkah Happening Hits the Highway" is taking place on December 6 from 11 a.m. to 1 p.m. The center has two car routes planned throughout the county where families travel to three different places to find Jewish landmarks and symbols. While in the car, there will be Hanukkah stories, music, games, and trivia shared. The event is free, but you will need to pre-register. Click here for details on the event.Petco Park Holiday Trail and MarketThe market and trail will take guests through a socially distanced, one-way trail at Petco Park's Gallagher Square, featuring artisan shops, lighting displays, foods and drinks, and unique crafts and gifts.Vendors on the trail will feature seasonal gifts like ornaments, wooden figurines, oils and soaps, and many more stocking stuffers. Visitors will be able to enjoy cider or wine, and delicious bratwurst, shortbread, and other treats along the way.Menorah Lighting in Liberty StationIn partnership with the Chabads of Downtown San Diego and Pacific Beach, Liberty Station plans to host a public menorah lighting on December 10 at 5 p.m. in the Central Promenade.La Mesa's Holidays in the Village La Mesa's Holiday in the Village returns on Dec. 5 from 10 a.m. - 9 p.m. with a craft market, holiday music, a food court, and holiday photo stations. The free event will observe public health orders and precautions and temperature checks will be required to enter. Face coverings and social distancing will also be required.Del Mar Fairgrounds Holidays in Your CarA magnificent display of lights and sounds will ring in the holidays at the Del Mar Fairgrounds this season, with Holidays in Your Car from Dec. 5 - Dec. 24, Dec. 26 - Dec. 30, and Jan. 1 2.More than one million LED lights, holograms, and projection mapping animated to holiday music will take over the fairgrounds for visitors to enjoy their own little sleigh ride, with some displays standing at over 40 feet high.Little Italy Virtual Tree LightingDue to COVID-19, Little Italy will host a virtual tree lighting. Standing at 30-feet tall, the Christmas Tree in the center of Piazza della Famiglia will be lit on December 5 at 5:30 p.m.Old Globe's "How the Grinch Stole Christmas!" and tree lightingThe Old Globe's production of "Dr. Seuss’s How the Grinch Stole Christmas!" won't be taking the theater's stage this year, instead, coming to audiences on the radio and online. The free, audio-only production can be heard on 89.5 FM and can also be streamed on the KPBS website or mobile app, and on smart speakers on Nov. 26, Dec. 5, and Dec. 20 at 12 p.m.; and Dec. 24 at 6 p.m.The 15th annual Globe Christmas Tree Lighting Ceremony will take place virtually on Nov. 22 at 6 p.m. and can be viewed on the Globe's website or social media channels. The tree lighting ceremony will feature songs, videos, and special greetings from company members and The Grinch himself.Winter Wonderland at Hotel del CoronadoThe Hotel del Coronado is bringing holiday magic to the beach, with thousands of sparkling lights, magnificent Christmas trees, and a winter wonderland at The Del’s Windsor Lawn.The holiday fun will include pictures with Santa, a "Frostbite" bar trailer with holiday treats and drinks, and holiday crafts available for sale, including cookie decorating kits, ornaments, and more. Seas 'N' Greetings at Birch AquariumFrom Nov. 28 to Dec. 31, Birch Aquarium is bringing holiday fun to the coast with Seas ‘n’ Greetings. Visitors can enjoy an 18-foot-tall inflatable octopus, check out a rescued Loggerhead Sea Turtle, and visit an outdoor Tide Pool Plaza with juvenile Swell Sharks, Horn Sharks and Round Rays. 4714

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) — The City of Poway Friday honored the memory of Lori Lynn Gilbert-Kaye, who was killed last April in a shooting at a local synagogue, by renaming a street after her.Many gathered Friday for the unveiling of Lori Lynn Lane (formerly Eva Drive). It's located in the Green Valley Neighborhood, off Stone Canyon Drive. Lori Kaye lived at that intersection. “To be able to dedicate this street to her memory means a lot to us in Poway,” says Poway Mayor Steve Vaus.RELATED: Family discovers synagogue shooting victim's random act of kindnessNeighbors and friends came together and petitioned for the change. Vaus says it's rare for the city to rename a street after someone. The last one dates back to the 1980s. But Vaus says the city had no hesitation with this renaming. The Poway City Council unanimously approved the honor in November. Gilbert-Kaye lost her life in that tragic synagogue shooting back in April. Many say she was a light in this community. RELATED: Chabad of Poway to dedicate Torah scroll to memory of synagogue shooting victim“It’s so appropriate that we do this on the cusp of Hanukkah. Hanukkah is the Festival of Lights, and Lori was a bright and shining light,” says Vaus. “I think the one word that people would use to describe her, she was a giver.”Vaus says as they are a few months away from the first anniversary of the shooting, the City of Poway will continue to stand strong, and lift up Gilbert-Kaye’s family. The trial date for the man accused of opening fire in the Chabad of Poway has been set for June. 1564

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) - Thanksgiving with the Salvation Army will be different in 2020 because of the coronavirus pandemic."We knew that we were going to do something," says Captain Sean Kelsley, who oversees the Salvation Army East County Operations. "The question was, what would it look like?"For the past 30 years, the Salvation Army held large, family-style gatherings to feed people experiencing homelessness, the disabled, and families in need at Golden Hall for Thanksgiving. They plan for 1,800 people, plus volunteers.But a gathering of 2,000+ people is strictly forbidden under California and San Diego County COVID-19 guidelines.In its place, the Salvation Army will offer "grab-and-go" style meals at four locations around the county."We're just glad to be able to be here," says Captain Kelsey. "However people celebrate the holidays, they'll at least be able to get some turkey and some gravy and all that good stuff."People will also receive an additional bag of fruit and snacks with their meals.In addition to providing food, Captain Kelsey says it's a way to connect with people and help them through whatever hardships they face."It allows us to encourage people and find out about a situation that is so dire, that maybe we can wrap around that individual that family, get them plugged in, and get them connected so they can get back on their feet," he says.Service for the meals will start at 11 am at the following locations:Oceanside Corps: 3935 Lake Blvd, Oceanside, CA 92056Centre City Corps: 825 7th Avenue, San Diego, CA 92101Citadel Corps: 4170 Balboa Ave, San Diego, CA 92117El Cajon Red Shield Center: 1025 E. Main St, El Cajon, CA 92021 1671