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SAN DIEGO (KGTV) — The latest ABC News national polling average shows former Vice President Joe Biden leading President Donald Trump by 8 points.But a lot of people are wondering, can we trust the polls after what happened in 2016?The last time Donald Trump was on the ballot in 2016, the polls had him trailing former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton by an average of 3.2 percentage points, and we know what happened.However, pollsters weren’t off by as much as you might think.“At the national level, the polling was, remarkably, given all things, precise,” said Jay Leve, CEO of the polling firm SurveyUSA.Trump lost the popular vote by 2.1 points instead of 3.2, the most accurate these national polls had been in 80 years, according to an analysis by the American Association for Public Opinion Research.Where the polls did miss badly was at the state level, particularly in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, three states that were critical in the Electoral College.Leve said there were several reasons for the polling problems at the state level.“Polling is a very expensive undertaking and so it is not possible for the handful of media organizations with pockets deep enough to afford a public opinion poll to be able to poll in every critical battleground state,” he said.Another reason? “Some of it has to do with what’s called ‘weighting,’” he added.To understand weighting, you have to know the two R’s of a good poll: it needs to be representative and random.Random samples are critical to the accuracy of polling, and you can look to your kitchen for an example why. Picture adding salt to a soup. If you mix it right, you can check the taste with any one spoonful -- you don’t have to eat the entire pot. That’s because each spoonful is a truly random sample.If you don’t mix the salt in, you could easily wind up sampling a part of the soup without any salt.When you’re trying to sample the American public with a political poll, either over the phone or most of the time now online, it’s more challenging to get a perfectly random spoonful.“The challenge is to find the individuals in the right numbers and secure their cooperation. Those two things don’t automatically work in sync,” Leve said. “People don’t want to be disturbed. They want privacy and a pollster by definition is an interruption.”It turns out, certain people tend to resist taking polls, while others are more willing. Research shows people with college degrees are more likely to respond to surveys than high school grads.That means surveys run the risk of not being representative of the voter population at large, and Leve said that kind of imbalance played a big role in 2016.To make a sample representative, pollsters gather up as many responses as they can, then adjust them with a process called weighting -- basically boosting or shrinking responses from people with certain demographics to match census data and the expected turnout.“The weighting criteria that was in issue in 2016 was whether you had enough non-college educated white voters in your sample,” Leve said. “If you did, you got the Trump forecast correct.”State polls that didn’t weight by education level missed badly, because to an extent far greater than in previous elections, voters with a college education broke for Clinton while voters with a high school education backed Trump.There’s some evidence that pollsters have learned from their 2016 mistakes. Polling in the 2018 midterms was very accurate -- a full point better than the average over the last 20 years.So can we trust the polls this time around?Leve says yes, as long as you remember that polls are just a snapshot in time and Donald Trump is difficult to predict.“Don’t be surprised if something happens in the final four, five, six days of the election, right before November 3rd, that’s so unforeseeable that neither you nor I nor anyone watching us could have imagined. And if so, that’s going to throw all the polls off,” he said. 3979

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) - The mother of a missing San Diego State graduate is offering a ,000 reward to find him.Wesley Billingsly, 24, was last seen in June. A San Diego Police flyer indicated he was prepared to meet friends and never arrived.Billingsly earned a degree in business administration and marketing from SDSU. He traveled to his native Sacramento and earned money for his return to San Diego, his mother Christel told 10News.Christel Billingsley said her son was looking for a job and wanted to save on rent. After June 1, he did not have a permanent address and started couch-surfing at friends’ homes in Pacific Beach.Wesley and his Ford Expedition disappeared June 12. “It’s completely out of character,” said his mother.Christel paid her son’s phone bill and described him as a social media junkie. About two months ago, the phone stopped showing activity.“Everything stopped on June 12. He just vanished off the face of this earth,” Christel said.Christel is employed as a school officer manager in Sacramento and recently returned to her job after summer break. She plans to take time off to search for her son.“Somebody knows something and I need somebody to tell me where my son is,” she said.Wesley Billingsly is 5’8”, 130 pounds with brown hair and brown eyes. He was last seen driving a black Ford Expedition with a license plate 6HIN781.Anyone with information please call SDPD Missing Persons Unit at 619-531-2277. 1448

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) — The family of a Navy sailor nearly killed in Syria is starting the new year with one less challenge.Over a year ago Navy EOD Tech Kenton Stacy was left paralyzed after an IED explosion. As Stacy was recovering in San Diego, renters were destroying the family’s Virginia home. “Just with everything we’re going through, it added stress. I just couldn’t believe how someone could damage our home and be okay with it,” said Kenton’s wife Lindsey.The home reeked of cigarettes, and the carpet, walls, and blinds were destroyed. When the EOD community in Virginia learned what happened in November they began to make repairs on the home.Julie Fish, a real estate agent with Signature Realty Select, also stepped in to help, taking over as the realtor.After reaching out for more help, people around the country offered money, time, services and resources. “These guys are...it’s like a brotherhood, there’s nothing they wouldn’t do for one another, and I like to think the wives are the same way,” said Fish, whose husband is also a Navy EOD Tech. Less than two months later, the home looks brand new and is on the market. “Very blessed that they just took that burden off of us, one less thing that we had to worry about, stress out about, and we just can’t thank everyone enough,” said Lindsey.Anyone interested in purchase the Virginia house can learn more about it here. 1396

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) -- The dockless bike industry continues to thrive in San Diego despite concerns from locals.The latest hazard being reported is brake cables being cut. Reddit user Kyle Clark spotted it in Ocean Beach on a Lime Bike. Another Reddit user reported the same problem in a different thread.Dockless bike company Ofo says they aren't aware of this happening to their bikes in San Diego but say they've seen the problem in Seattle. 449

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) — The crowds at San Diego International Airport grew Friday night, as travelers kicked off the holiday travel weekend. AAA predicts a record-breaking 115 million Americans will travel this holiday season, up nearly 4 percent from last year. Of those travelers, AAA estimates 105 million people will drive, 7 million will fly, and 4 million will take the train, bus, or cruise ships. According to AAA, airports around the US will be busiest between Dec. 21 through 23. But the crowds should start to build Friday.RELATED: This holiday season to set travel records, AAA says10News spoke to many travelers going in and out of San Diego International Airport Friday. Melissa Flatley flew in from Reno, Nev. She said she wore her festive antler headband to make sure her sister does not lose her in the crowd."It's a little busy on a holiday weekend, so I just wanted for her to find me a little more easily!" Flatley laughed. 10News also met the Monje family. The San Diego family of five was headed to Jacksonville, Fla., to visit family. They said they were travel pros, who purposely wait until the last second to fly, thanks to father Joel's job at Southwest Airlines. RELATED: AAA provides tips on preparing vehicles for holiday travel"We fly standby, so it's always a little frazzled and anxious for us," Lisa Monje said. "But we're very thankful for our benefits. If we can get there on standby for free, hey, that's even better!"Carlos Yu flew in from El Paso, Texas. He told 10News he's glad to be back home in Southern California and planning to take every form of transportation to make his rounds to see friends and family."I've actually never taken the train, so I'm super excited about that," Yu said. "I'm going to drive back down, actually again, so it's going to be a good two weeks."RELATED: The holidays bring a spike in heart attacks. Here's why10News also met the Smith family, who was waiting for their two sons to come home. Their father, Joshua, is in the Navy, based in San Diego. Older brother, Malik, is in the Army. He flew in from El Paso. Middle brother, Jauan, is in the Air Force. He arrived from San Antonio. They all came together from bases all over the country to spend the holidays together at home. "I literally cannot come home to see them until I have to leave to come and do it, so it means a lot. We all get together. It doesn't happen all the time," Jauan said. Santa and Mrs. Claus made an appearance to make sure travelers had a festive and stress-free experience at the airport. 2546