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The interest rate on the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage remained near record lows in June and is likely to stay there in July.The 30-year fixed averaged 3.33% APR in the first four weeks of June, a smidgen lower than the 3.37% average APR in May and 3.36% in April. June’s rate average was the lowest in the four-year history of NerdWallet’s daily rate survey.A mission to reduce ratesMortgage rates were remarkably anchored from April through June after the Federal Reserve intervened to stabilize rates and push them down.But the Fed’s intervention hasn’t been entirely successful: Although mortgage rates have been remarkably stable, they’re stuck at a higher-than-expected level. To put it more bluntly, rates should be lower.Since March, the central bank has bought billions of dollars’ worth of Treasurys and mortgage bonds “to sustain smooth market functioning, thereby fostering effective transmission of monetary policy to broader financial conditions,” as the Fed explained in a June 10 statement.Dissecting that short passage:The Fed is saying that its goal is to push interest rates, including mortgage rates, lower. That’s what “transmission of monetary policy to broader financial conditions” means.It’s trying to accomplish that goal by buying Treasurys and mortgage bonds to calm and stabilize those markets. Stabilizing markets is a method, not the goal.? MORE: How mortgage rates are determinedFed failed to make a bigger splashThe Fed has succeeded in calming the waters. That’s why there were ripples, not waves, in fixed mortgage rates from April through June. But it has only partially succeeded in its goal to push interest rates lower. For the Fed to declare victory in “fostering effective transmission of monetary policy to broader financial conditions,” mortgage rates would have to fall another half a percentage point or so.With its intervention, the Fed decreased Treasury yields and mortgage rates. But the results are unequal: Since January, the 10-year Treasury yield has fallen a little over one percentage point, while the 30-year mortgage has fallen about half a percentage point. Normally, the two would fall roughly the same amount.Rates slow to sync with TreasurysWhy haven’t mortgage rates fallen further? You might guess that lenders are keeping rates elevated to offset the risk of mortgages going into default during the COVID-19 recession. But mortgage rates tend to fall during recessions.? MORE: What COVID-19 means for mortgage ratesMaybe mortgage servicers, the companies that collect monthly payments and work with past-due borrowers, want to be paid for the increased risk they bear, and it’s translating to higher rates. Maybe an undetected economic force keeps a floor on mortgage rates, preventing the 30-year fixed from falling below 3% and lingering there.A more plausible theory is that mortgage rates will follow historical patterns and shamble lower until they’ve fallen roughly the same as Treasury yields. That’s the conclusion that Bill Emmons, economist for the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, makes in a paper titled “Why Haven’t Mortgage Rates Fallen Further?”Using history as a guide, Emmons writes, “we would expect a further decline in mortgage rates of perhaps 0.5 percentage points.” If he’s right, mortgage rates might drop in July.Don’t count on it, though. Not after these two months of stability; rates might continue to tread water.More From NerdWalletCompare current mortgage ratesHow much home can I afford?Buying or selling a home during the pandemicHolden Lewis is a writer at NerdWallet. Email: hlewis@nerdwallet.com. Twitter: @HoldenL. 3623
The Iran nuclear deal may be doomed, at least if you believe the global oil market.Oil prices have surged?partly because of mounting expectations that President Trump will kill the 2015 agreement, which allowed Iran to export more crude. Trump must decide by May 12 whether to re-impose sanctions on the OPEC nation.Brent crude, the global benchmark, briefly soared above a barrel on Monday after Israel leveled new nuclear allegations against Iran.Bringing back sanctions on Iran could knock out as much as 1 million barrels per day of crude supply, dealing a blow to increasingly fragile energy markets."There will be a significant disruption," said Michael Wittner, global head of oil research at Societe Generale."The market is assuming that oil sanctions will snap back onto Iran," he said.Trump said on Monday that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's speech on Iran helps show he's "100% right" about the Iranian nuclear agreement, which was signed by former President Barack Obama."We'll see what happens," Trump said about his decision on the Iran deal. "I'm not telling you what I'm doing, but a lot of people think they know."The oil market certainly thinks it knows. The price of Brent crude has soared 7% this year, and the US benchmark has soared 8% to nearly a barrel for the first time since late 2014. Oil prices have been lifted by concerns about the fate of the Iran deal as well as strong demand and supply cuts by OPEC and Russia."The Iranian nuclear deal is dead in the water and a Trump torpedo is fast approaching," Stephen Brennock, oil analyst at brokerage firm PVM Oil Associates, wrote to clients late last week.Under the deal, Iran agreed to limits on its nuclear activities, including bans on enrichment at key facilities. In exchange, sanctions were lifted in early 2016, freeing Iran to quickly boost its oil production by about 1 million barrels per day. Iran found eager customers for its crude in Europe, Japan, India and South Korea.It's "now looking increasingly likely" that Trump will not renew the waiver on Iranian sanctions by May 12, according to energy research firm FGE. 2153
The gunman who went on a rampage in Northern California was a "deranged and paranoid killer" who was out on bail after assaulting two neighbors this year, authorities say.Kevin Neal killed his wife Monday night on the eve of the shootings and stuffed her body under the floor in his home, according to police."We believe that's probably what started this whole event," Assistant Sheriff Phil Johnston said of the wife's shooting. 437
The Presidential Inaugural Committee, which consists of prominent Democrats helping to organize next month’s inauguration, are encouraging Americans to stay away from DC and watch the inauguration from home.The quadrennial inauguration of a president and vice president is typically attended by hundreds of thousands. The committee says in light of the pandemic, a large gathering should be avoided.While the committee said details will be released in the coming days, inauguration organizers said that the ceremony’s footprint will be extremely limited."Our goal is to create an inauguration that keeps people safe, honors the grand traditions of the Presidency, and showcases the Biden-Harris Administration’s renewed American vision for an inclusive, equitable, and unified citizenry,” said PIC CEO Tony Allen in a statement.While the organizers did not say the inauguration parade would be canceled, organizers said it would be “re-imagined.”Earlier this month, President-elect Joe Biden said he envisioned an inauguration akin to the virtual Democratic National Convention, which was held in August."First and foremost in my objective is to keep America safe but still allow people to celebrate," Biden said. "To celebrate and see one another celebrating."Other Inauguration Day events, such as the signing ceremony and luncheon the new president has with congressional leaders, are still unknown. As of now, the Joint Congressional Committee on Inaugural Ceremonies is unaware of any restrictions related to the pandemic. Those wishing to get a spot to view Biden’s inauguration can still request tickets to the event through their member of Congress.Another sign that the pomp and circumstance of this year’s inauguration will look different is this could be the first time in US history that a presidential inauguration fails to result in a smooth transfer of power. Outgoing President Donald Trump has continued to allege the election was stolen from him despite dozens of failed lawsuits and no formal prosecutions of widespread fraud.It has been a long-standing tradition that the incoming and outgoing president meet at the White House and travel to the Capitol together before the inauguration.On Monday, Biden issued his strongest condemnation of Trump’s refusal to concede the election."It is my sincere hope we never again see anyone subjected to the kind of threats and abuse we saw in this election. It's simply unconscionable. We owe these public servants a debt of gratitude. They didn't seek the spotlight, you know, and our democracy survived because of them,” Biden said. 2602
The photo is shocking. A young mother passed out in the front seat of her car, a syringe clutched in her fist.What you can't see in the photo is the back seat, where her infant son sat crying.That was a year ago this month -- but for Erika Hurt, it might as well be a lifetime.The 26-year-old Indiana woman says she has been clean since that day, doting on her son and working a full-time job.And the photo, which at first was a source of anger and humiliation, illustrates the slippery line between sobriety and despair."I was sober. I stopped going to meetings. I forgot about how bad the addiction got," Hunt told CNN about that period in her life last year. "This photo helped me look back. It's a constant reminder that sobriety needs to be worked at."The day the photo was shotThe day the photograph was taken, Hurt had parked in the lot of a dollar store in Hope, Indiana, to shoot up heroin. She had gotten out of a month-long stint in rehab just two weeks earlier. Her 10-month-old son was in the back seat.She rationalized his presence the same way a lot of addicts do while using in front their kids, she said: They're asleep. Or they're too young to realize what's going on.The last thing Hurt remembers from that day is pulling into the parking lot. She later learned a customer found her slumped over in the car and called 911.It took officers two doses of Narcan, the drug used to reverse an overdose in an emergency situation, to revive her."Had this woman not passed out from this and attempted to drive right afterward, she could have (driven) down the road, passed out two minutes later and hit a car with a family in it, killed every one of them," Hope Town Marshal Matthew Tallent told CNN at the time. "That's the thing that's so shocking to me to think about."What happened nextAfter a brief hospital stay came jail. Hunt had violated her probation from a previous charge in 2014.While she was waiting for her sentencing date, a local reporter requested an interview. Then another asked, and another.She didn't think much of it at the time. She found out why when she was watching the evening news.A police officer had snapped a photo of her passed out in the car. It soon went viral."I felt very humiliated, I felt very angry," she said. "You know, it was hard for me to truly believe that it was me."Hurt's story fits into a grim pattern, as research shows heroin use is on the rise in the US. The most recent United Nations' World Drug Report found that 914,000 people aged 12 years or older reported using heroin in 2014 -- a 145% increase since 2007.Where she is nowHunt has been fighting addiction all her life, she says."I had been an addict since I was 15 years old," she said. "It wasn't until I was 21 that I began seeking help -- and I was failing at it. "The overdose, captured in the photo, led to Hunt getting clean.She was sentenced to six months of intense rehab in a locked-down facility -- one that focused on the underlying issues of addiction and how to cope with them.She's part of WRAP (Women Recovering with a Purpose), a program that requires continued meetings with a therapist, a sobriety coach and multiple "self care" classes such as Narcotics Anonymous every week.Now, she works more than 40 hours a week at a local factory. She also cares for her son, but her mom has guardianship.At this point, her focus is on staying the course."If you are sober and healthy," she said, "then you can take care of everybody else." 3477