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BEIJING, May 3 (Xinhua) -- Decoupling from the world, and the economic downturn much of it is experiencing, has proven impossible for China. But its resilience is receiving more recognition, with many leading financial institutions upgrading their 2009 growth forecasts since mid-April.     The adjustments for gross domestic product (GDP) growth, ranging from 0.5 to 2.3 percentage points, were based on signs of a turnaround in the first quarter. These indicators included stronger-than-expected real GDP growth, recovering property investment, a pick-up in power consumption and a surge in bank lending.     Merrill Lynch & Co. said it expected China's GDP to grow 7.2 percent in the second quarter and 8 percent this year, while Goldman Sachs raised its projection from 6 percent to 8.3 percent, the most optimistic forecast so far. Other forecasts include UBS, which raised its estimate by 0.5 point to 7 percent and CLSA Asia-Pacific, which lifted its outlook by 1.5 point to 7 percent.     China's policymakers can take heart from these forecasts. Every upward revision, big or small, given the global economic slowdown, might point to a better chance for the nation to achieve its 8-percent growth target. That level of growth is considered necessary to raise living standards while maintaining social stability.     But there's still the question of whether rapid growth is sustainable. Some analysts believe it isn't unless China can rebalance its economy and achieve higher efficiency, lower environmental costs and a more reasonable balance among investment, trade and consumption.     QUANTITY OR QUALITY?     In an interview with Xinhua, Stephen Roach, chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia, urged Chinese authorities to get more serious about stimulating private consumption because the global economy remains "pretty weak" and might only achieve a weak recovery.     "China has responded to the crisis the way it has always responded to global problems. That is, using proactive fiscal stimulus mainly in the infrastructure area to provide temporary support in the downturn until the global economy comes back. It worked in the 1997 Asian financial crisis and the 2000-2001 mild recession. But this is a different sort of problem," said Roach.     "Once the stimulus wears off and if there is no follow-through, the Chinese economy will weaken again. I don't think exports will recover in the weak global economy."     Domestic economists voice similar worries, saying that the speed of growth doesn't matter as much as the quality. Liu Shangxi, deputy dean of the Research Institute for Fiscal Science at the Ministry of Finance, said that the 6.1-percent year-on-year growth in the first quarter had been "fairly good" for China. But, he said, "sometimes, it's worth slowing down a bit to have the economy move more stably."     Wang Xiaoguang, an economist with the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), the chief planning agency. said that the government's annual growth target had become mostly symbolic.     For five years in a row, the target was 8 percent, and for five years in a row, the growth rate overshot the target. Wang said the government had faced a dilemma: a cut in the target might undermine public confidence while a rise might tempt local governments to over-invest to meet a high growth target.     The turnaround signs mostly reflected the impact of the 4-trillion-yuan (586 billion U.S. dollars) stimulus package. Meanwhile, retail sales still trailed investment in contributing to growth. Local economists warned that the economy remained unbalanced and vulnerable.     "Historical records show that adjustments in the Chinese economy would take two to three years, on average. Seven months have passed since the impact of the global financial crisis began to tell on the local economy.     "With a turnaround in sight, recovery might come earlier than expected but there are still risks of a further slowdown," Chen Dongqi, deputy chief of the Macro-Economic Research Institute under the NDRC, told a business development forum in Guangdong in late April.     BUYING CURE     It's widely accepted among economists that China should boost domestic private consumption by leading individuals to buy more and save less. The key question is: how?     "Two big programs" Roach advocates call for doubling the investment in social security immediately to 150 billion U.S. dollars and establishing a goal of raising consumption as a share of the economy from 36 percent to 50 percent within five years.     "What I think is missing here is the social safety net, social security pension and unemployment insurance. Because of the absence of the safety net, China has seen a high level of precautionary saving," he said.     Roach suggested that China develop a private pension system in particular so total employee compensation could rise in tandem with productivity. "Chinese companies need to partner with their workers and provide medical care [and] retirement investing for their workforce. Chinese workers' total pay package should have both wages and benefits," he said.     Liu agreed that the primary task in expanding consumption was to raise incomes. "Securing the legitimate interests of workers is particularly significant when the economy slumps. It would be like drinking poison to quench one's thirst if businesses sought to expand corporate earnings at the cost of workers' pay and benefits," he said.     Low labor costs and massive capacity have propped up China's prosperity over the past decades. But the proportion of wages to national income has been on a long decline since the 1990s.     Between 2002 and 2006 alone, economists estimate the figure dropped from 62.1 percent to 57.1 percent. Meanwhile, the contribution of consumption to GDP growth fell from 43.6 percent to 38.9 percent.     "A more meaningful index to judge the sustainability of China's economic growth would be the proportion of wages to national income," Liu said. "If this ratio did not rise, people would remain poor, and thus expanding consumption would be empty talk."     Chinese are far from wealthy. Only 4 percent of the workforce, and just 10 percent of the urban workforce, earn more than 2,000 yuan a month, the threshold for individual income tax.     As Chinese residents hold 2.43 trillion yuan in aggregate deposits, economists say one immediate way to boost consumption would be to stabilize spending on staple property -- including housing and automobiles -- and support tourism and cultural activities.     "People spend much of their money on housing and food. The government should encourage people to entertain themselves more," Wang said.     CHINA 'NO LOCOMOTIVE'     Although China might be the first major economy to recover from the downturn, economists disagree on when China will return to sustained high growth.     Morgan Stanley, for example, has forecast a firm recovery by mid-year, but said sustainable growth through 2010 would still hinge on what happens in other countries.     "China will be stronger. But will that strength be enough to allow others to follow in its footsteps? I don't think so," said Roach.     "Most of China's resilience comes from infrastructure building, roads, property consumption ... [this] won't have an impact on the United States and Europe. This resilience is only temporary while its stimulus is local rather than global."     Central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan also warned in late April during World Bank-IMF meetings in Washington that the rebound in China's economy had to be consolidated. He said conditions in China would permit rapid economic development again, once macroeconomic policies such as the stimulus plan took effect.     Challenging internal and external conditions, he said, included continuously shrinking external demand, a relatively large decline in exports, overcapacity in some industries, falling government revenue and lingering employment pressure.     As China emerges from the shadow of the downturn, together with many of its Western partners, the world is closely watching the socialist market economy that it is still trying to develop.     It was interesting to see that there was much "the ideologically-constrained West" could learn from China, just as there was much China could learn from the West, said Roach.     "China has gone slow in many areas, especially in the opening up of its financial market. But China made the right choice," he said.     "Focusing on stability is a huge plus for China. But the nation must be vigilant in its financial policies, especially monetary and regulatory policies, and not allow asset bubbles and financial innovations it doesn't understand," said Roach.

YEKATERINBURG, Russia, June 16 (Xinhua) -- Chinese President Hu Jintao Tuesday presented a four-point proposal for dealing with the ongoing global financial crisis at the first summit meeting of BRIC countries which groups Brazil, Russia, India and China.     First, BRIC countries should commit themselves to bringing about an early recovery of the world economy, Hu said. "We should work hard to overcome the difficulties and try to take the lead in recovering from the global financial crisis," he said, adding "This is not only for our own need, but also contributes to world economic recovery." Chinese President Hu Jintao (2nd R) poses for a group photo together with Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (1st L), Russian President Dmitry Medvedev (2nd L), and Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh during the first formal meeting of BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) leaders in Yekaterinburg, Russia, on June 16, 2009    BRIC countries should solve the long-existing structural problems in their economic development and change their development pattern in an effort to improve the quality and level of their economic development , while striving to resume world economic growth.     He also urged BRIC countries to continue to open their markets, make use of their mutually complementary strength and expand economic and trade cooperation.     "We should also firmly oppose protectionism, jointly safeguard the normal and orderly flow of commodities, services and personnel worldwide, and help ensure that the Doha round of global trade talks would achieve a comprehensive and balanced outcome as soon as possible," he added. The first summit meeting of BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) leaders is held in Yekaterinburg, Russia, on June 16, 2009.Second, BRIC countries should commit themselves to pushing forward the reform of international financial system, Hu said.     To establish a new international financial order that is fair, equitable, inclusive and well-managed, and provide guarantee for the sustainable development of the global economy in terms of system and mechanism conforms with the trend of the historical development and is in the fundamental interest of all parties, he said.     BRIC countries should improve the international financial supervision mechanism and ensure the effective participation of the developing countries in world financial supervision organizations such as the Financial Stability Board, Hu said.     Third, BRIC countries should commit themselves to implementing the UN Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), the president said.     The international community should not overlook development issues and cut the input for development while dealing with global financial crisis, he said.     Instead, it should pay close attention to the impact that the crisis has left on developing countries, especially the least developed ones, he added. Chinese President Hu Jintao attends the first summit meeting of BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) leaders in Yekaterinburg, Russia, on June 16, 2009The BRIC countries should call on all parties to continue to implement the MDGs and urge the developed economies to fulfil their commitment to assistance, he added.     Fourth, BRIC countries should commit themselves to ensuring the security of food, energy resource, and public health, he added.     He said while tackling the ongoing global financial crisis, efforts should be made to properly handle some outstanding problems that hinder development, such as climate change, food, energy, resource and public health security. A long-term approach and overall plan should be adopted to take all factors into consideration as these issues bear on the wellbeing of all peoples in the world and their overall interests, he added.     He also urged BRIC countries to increase investment in agriculture, develop advanced agricultural technique and curb market speculation. He also called for greater food assistance and closer agricultural and food cooperation.     "We should also accelerate our efforts in developing clean and renewable energy, and establish advanced research and promotion systems in a bid to diversity our energy supply," Hu said.     He urged the four countries to strengthen information exchanges and communication, share the experience on epidemics preventions and control, and work together to develop and share vaccines, and cooperate in pandemic control and prevention.

WASHINGTON, April 22 (Xinhua) -- The International Monetary Fund on Wednesday warned that the global economy was in "a severe recession" and the world output is projected to decline 1.3 percent this year, the deepest global recession since the Great Depression in 1930s.     "The global economy is in a severe recession inflicted by a massive financial crisis and acute loss of confidence," said the IMF in its latest World Economic Outlook report. "All corners of the globe are being affected." 　　EPICENTER OF CRISIS     According to the report, the world economy is projected to decline by 1.3 percent in 2009 as a whole and to recover only gradually in 2010, growing by 1.9 percent.     "Achieving this turnaround will depend on stepping up efforts to heal the financial sector, while continuing to support demand with monetary and fiscal easing," said the IMF.     The advanced economies experienced an unprecedented 7.5 percent decline in real GDP during the fourth quarter of 2008, and output is estimated to have continued to fall almost as fast during the first quarter of 2009, according to the report.     Although the U.S. economy may have suffered most from intensified financial strains and the continued fall in the housing sector, western Europe and advanced Asia have been hit hard by the collapse in global trade, as well as by rising financial problems of their own and housing corrections in some national markets.     Emerging economies are suffering badly and contracted 4 percent in the fourth quarter in the aggregate.     The United States, at the center of an intensifying global financial storm, will contract by 2.8 percent this year, said the IMF, adding that "the biggest financial crisis since the Great Depression has pushed the United States into a severe recession."     Meanwhile, the euro zone economy will shrink by 4.2 percent this year and fall a further 0.4 percent in 2010, the IMF said, criticizing the bloc for weak public policy responses and coordination.     In Japan, the IMF expects 2009 output to fall 6.2 percent, far worse than its January forecast for a 2.6 percent decline.     China is expected to slow to about 6.5 percent this year, half the 13 percent growth rate recorded pre-crisis in 2007 but still a strong performance given the global context, according to the IMF.     UNCERTAIN OUTLOOK     The IMF warned the financial crisis remains acute. "The financial market stabilization will take longer than previously envisaged, even with strong efforts by policymakers," it said.     Thus, financial strains in the mature markets are projected to remain heavy until well into 2010, and overall credit to the private sector in the advanced economies is expected to decline in both 2009 and 2010.     Meanwhile, emerging and developing economies are expected to face greatly curtailed access to external financing in both years.     In a semi-annual report Global Financial Stability Report (GFSR), which was released on Monday, the IMF said write-down on U.S.-originated assets to be suffered by all holders will be 2.7 trillion dollars, "largely as a result of the worsening base-case scenario for economic growth."     Total expected write-downs on global exposures are estimated at about 4 trillion dollars, of which two-thirds will fall on banks and the remainder on insurance companies, pension funds, hedge funds, and other intermediaries.     In the latest World Economic Outlook report, the IMF warned that the current outlook is exceptionally uncertain, with risks weighed to the downside.     The crisis has hurt international trade, with volume expected to plunge 11 percent this year before eking out 0.6 percent growth in 2010.     Consumer prices in developed countries were under pressure and would fall 0.2 percent in 2009.     "Even once the crisis is over, there will be a difficult transition period, with output growth appreciably below rates seen in the recent past," said the IMF.     BOLD POLICY     The IMF called for its members to take new bold policy stimulus to jump-start their economies.     "This difficult and uncertain outlook argues for forceful action on both the financial and macroeconomic policy fronts," said the IMF.     Past episodes of financial crisis have shown that delays in tackling the underlying problem mean an even more protracted economic downturn and even greater costs, both in terms of taxpayer money and economic activity.     "Policymakers must be mindful of the cross-border ramifications of policy choices," said the IMF. "Initiatives that support trade and financial partners will help support global demand, with shared benefits."     In advanced economies, scope for easing monetary policy further should be used aggressively to counter deflation risks.     Although policy rates are already near the zero floor in many countries, whatever policy room remains should be used quickly, according to the IMF.     Emerging economies also need to ease monetary conditions to respond to the deteriorating outlook.     However, in many of those economies, the task of central banks is further complicated by the need to sustain external stability in the face of highly fragile financing flows, the IMF warned.     The 185-member organization also warned against the rising protectionism.     "Greater international cooperation is needed to avoid exacerbating cross-border strains," said the IMF. "Coordination and collaboration is particularly important with respect to financial policies to avoid adverse international spillovers from national actions."     "A slide toward trade and financial protectionism would be hugely damaging to all, a clear warning from the experience of 1930s beggar-thy-neighbor policies," it warned.

TOKYO, June 9 (Xinhua) -- Chinese Vice Premier Wang Qishan on Tuesday attended an unveiling ceremony in Japan for Haibao, the mascot of the 2010 Shanghai World Exposition.     "We will try to hold a successful, splendid and unforgettable Expo, building a bridge of communication, understanding and cooperation for the people of China, Asia and other nations of the world," Wang said in Aichi Prefecture, where Japan held an Expo in 2005. Masaaki Kanda (L), governor of Aichi Prefecture, presents the mascot of the 2005 Aichi World Exposition "Kiccoro" to Chinese Vice Premier Wang Qishan in Aichi Prefecture, Japan, June 9, 2009Wang said his trip to Aichi was aimed at learning from Japan's experience in holding such expositions and making the Shanghai Expo better known.     Masaaki Kanda, governor of Aichi Prefecture, who also attended the ceremony, said the Japanese are looking forward to the Shanghai Expo.     He expressed his belief that the exposition will be a success and as splendid as the 2008 Beijing Olympics.     Wang arrived in Aichi Prefecture after attending the second China-Japan high-level economic dialogue in Tokyo. Chinese Vice Premier Wang Qishan (front, L) talks with Executive Vice President of Toyota Motor Corp. Akio Toyota (front, R) in Aichi Prefecture, Japan, June 9, 2009. Wang Qishan visited the Toyota Motor Corp. on Tuesday

BEIJING, May 3 (Xinhua) -- Decoupling from the world, and the economic downturn much of it is experiencing, has proven impossible for China. But its resilience is receiving more recognition, with many leading financial institutions upgrading their 2009 growth forecasts since mid-April.     The adjustments for gross domestic product (GDP) growth, ranging from 0.5 to 2.3 percentage points, were based on signs of a turnaround in the first quarter. These indicators included stronger-than-expected real GDP growth, recovering property investment, a pick-up in power consumption and a surge in bank lending.     Merrill Lynch & Co. said it expected China's GDP to grow 7.2 percent in the second quarter and 8 percent this year, while Goldman Sachs raised its projection from 6 percent to 8.3 percent, the most optimistic forecast so far. Other forecasts include UBS, which raised its estimate by 0.5 point to 7 percent and CLSA Asia-Pacific, which lifted its outlook by 1.5 point to 7 percent.     China's policymakers can take heart from these forecasts. Every upward revision, big or small, given the global economic slowdown, might point to a better chance for the nation to achieve its 8-percent growth target. That level of growth is considered necessary to raise living standards while maintaining social stability.     But there's still the question of whether rapid growth is sustainable. Some analysts believe it isn't unless China can rebalance its economy and achieve higher efficiency, lower environmental costs and a more reasonable balance among investment, trade and consumption.     QUANTITY OR QUALITY?     In an interview with Xinhua, Stephen Roach, chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia, urged Chinese authorities to get more serious about stimulating private consumption because the global economy remains "pretty weak" and might only achieve a weak recovery.     "China has responded to the crisis the way it has always responded to global problems. That is, using proactive fiscal stimulus mainly in the infrastructure area to provide temporary support in the downturn until the global economy comes back. It worked in the 1997 Asian financial crisis and the 2000-2001 mild recession. But this is a different sort of problem," said Roach.     "Once the stimulus wears off and if there is no follow-through, the Chinese economy will weaken again. I don't think exports will recover in the weak global economy."     Domestic economists voice similar worries, saying that the speed of growth doesn't matter as much as the quality. Liu Shangxi, deputy dean of the Research Institute for Fiscal Science at the Ministry of Finance, said that the 6.1-percent year-on-year growth in the first quarter had been "fairly good" for China. But, he said, "sometimes, it's worth slowing down a bit to have the economy move more stably."     Wang Xiaoguang, an economist with the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), the chief planning agency. said that the government's annual growth target had become mostly symbolic.     For five years in a row, the target was 8 percent, and for five years in a row, the growth rate overshot the target. Wang said the government had faced a dilemma: a cut in the target might undermine public confidence while a rise might tempt local governments to over-invest to meet a high growth target.     The turnaround signs mostly reflected the impact of the 4-trillion-yuan (586 billion U.S. dollars) stimulus package. Meanwhile, retail sales still trailed investment in contributing to growth. Local economists warned that the economy remained unbalanced and vulnerable.     "Historical records show that adjustments in the Chinese economy would take two to three years, on average. Seven months have passed since the impact of the global financial crisis began to tell on the local economy.     "With a turnaround in sight, recovery might come earlier than expected but there are still risks of a further slowdown," Chen Dongqi, deputy chief of the Macro-Economic Research Institute under the NDRC, told a business development forum in Guangdong in late April.     BUYING CURE     It's widely accepted among economists that China should boost domestic private consumption by leading individuals to buy more and save less. The key question is: how?     "Two big programs" Roach advocates call for doubling the investment in social security immediately to 150 billion U.S. dollars and establishing a goal of raising consumption as a share of the economy from 36 percent to 50 percent within five years.     "What I think is missing here is the social safety net, social security pension and unemployment insurance. Because of the absence of the safety net, China has seen a high level of precautionary saving," he said.     Roach suggested that China develop a private pension system in particular so total employee compensation could rise in tandem with productivity. "Chinese companies need to partner with their workers and provide medical care [and] retirement investing for their workforce. Chinese workers' total pay package should have both wages and benefits," he said.     Liu agreed that the primary task in expanding consumption was to raise incomes. "Securing the legitimate interests of workers is particularly significant when the economy slumps. It would be like drinking poison to quench one's thirst if businesses sought to expand corporate earnings at the cost of workers' pay and benefits," he said.     Low labor costs and massive capacity have propped up China's prosperity over the past decades. But the proportion of wages to national income has been on a long decline since the 1990s.     Between 2002 and 2006 alone, economists estimate the figure dropped from 62.1 percent to 57.1 percent. Meanwhile, the contribution of consumption to GDP growth fell from 43.6 percent to 38.9 percent.     "A more meaningful index to judge the sustainability of China's economic growth would be the proportion of wages to national income," Liu said. "If this ratio did not rise, people would remain poor, and thus expanding consumption would be empty talk."     Chinese are far from wealthy. Only 4 percent of the workforce, and just 10 percent of the urban workforce, earn more than 2,000 yuan a month, the threshold for individual income tax.     As Chinese residents hold 2.43 trillion yuan in aggregate deposits, economists say one immediate way to boost consumption would be to stabilize spending on staple property -- including housing and automobiles -- and support tourism and cultural activities.     "People spend much of their money on housing and food. The government should encourage people to entertain themselves more," Wang said.     CHINA 'NO LOCOMOTIVE'     Although China might be the first major economy to recover from the downturn, economists disagree on when China will return to sustained high growth.     Morgan Stanley, for example, has forecast a firm recovery by mid-year, but said sustainable growth through 2010 would still hinge on what happens in other countries.     "China will be stronger. But will that strength be enough to allow others to follow in its footsteps? I don't think so," said Roach.     "Most of China's resilience comes from infrastructure building, roads, property consumption ... [this] won't have an impact on the United States and Europe. This resilience is only temporary while its stimulus is local rather than global."     Central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan also warned in late April during World Bank-IMF meetings in Washington that the rebound in China's economy had to be consolidated. He said conditions in China would permit rapid economic development again, once macroeconomic policies such as the stimulus plan took effect.     Challenging internal and external conditions, he said, included continuously shrinking external demand, a relatively large decline in exports, overcapacity in some industries, falling government revenue and lingering employment pressure.     As China emerges from the shadow of the downturn, together with many of its Western partners, the world is closely watching the socialist market economy that it is still trying to develop.     It was interesting to see that there was much "the ideologically-constrained West" could learn from China, just as there was much China could learn from the West, said Roach.     "China has gone slow in many areas, especially in the opening up of its financial market. But China made the right choice," he said.     "Focusing on stability is a huge plus for China. But the nation must be vigilant in its financial policies, especially monetary and regulatory policies, and not allow asset bubbles and financial innovations it doesn't understand," said Roach.

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