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When experts look at the economy and its rebound, they go through an alphabet soup of letters, with a “V” shape recovery being the best-case scenario. It’s a fast decline with a fast recovery. Letters like “W” or “L” mean a much slower and painful path forward.A resurgence of more COVID-19 cases is shifting the likely shape of our economic recovery, and having economists evaluate the likelihood of a recovery in the shape of the more dreaded letters.“The fact that the virus has increased in a number of states shows that it is still very much a threat not only to one’s health but the economy,” said Michelle Meyer, who heads U.S. Economics at Bank of America. “The initial stage of the recovery was quite robust. It felt quite ‘V’ like, the economy was digging its way out of what was a very deep hole.”According to Bank of America, about a third of the jobs lost during the pandemic have been recovered. However, the recovery has slowed down into more of a “U” shape, and now data is showing a stall with concern of a higher chance of a “W” or “L” shape recovery.“The ‘W’ trajectory would be the worst-case scenario. That would show real fragility on the economy if we dipped back into a recession,” added Meyer.Experts say it would lead even higher unemployment, and more permanent job loss and business closures. In addition, to come out of a “W” or “L” shape recovery, we would need even more stimulus money from the federal government, which may not even improve the economic downturn as much as it did the first time.“Stimulus in Washington provides a really nice band-aid and I think it helped tremendously in the first stage of this recovery but at the end of the day, we need the economy to fundamentally improve,” said Meyer.The good news is unless there is a significant or full shutdown again, a “W” shape recovery is still less likely to occur than a “U” shape.“Our analysis projects that a 'U' shape recovery with rather steep losses and growth this year and rather flat next year and then recovering subsequently is the most likely outcome,” said David Turkington, the Senior Vice President at State Street Associates.A recent State Street study based on 100 years of historical data shows that the U.S. still has 30.1% chance of a “U” recovery, and a combined 24.4% chance of a “W” or “L” shape recovery which include stagflation and depression outcomes.“The real economy I think is what determines the recovery and how that plays forward,” said Turkington.The real economy is jobs, businesses and consumer spending. Providing stability there could determine which way the economy goes. 2615

WICHITA, Kan. (AP) — Authorities say a retired firefighter who was upset with a mask ordinance in the city of Wichita, Kansas, has been arrested on suspicion of threatening to kidnap and kill the mayor.The Wichita Eagle reports that police say the 59-year-old suspect could face a charge of criminal threat.Democratic Mayor Brandon Whipple said someone had read him text messages received by another city official that asked about the mayor’s address and threatened his life.Whipple says the suspect talked about tyranny in the messages and was upset about the mask mandates and not being able to see his mother because of coronavirus restrictions.“He said he was going to kidnap me and slash my throat and he needed my address because I needed to see the hangman — me and everyone who, something about tyranny,” said Whipple.The Eagle reports that the mayor has been an online target of anti-mask activists after he pushed for a citywide mask requirement to help slow the spread of the coronavirus.Whipple says he will now have an increased security presence around his home to protect him and his family.The Wichita Police Department told The Eagle that it’s investigating the threats and that no other local officials are believed to have been targeted at this time.This incident comes after law enforcement arrested several men who authorities say plotted to kidnap Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer at her vacation home. Federal agents ended up foiling that plot and are charging the “violent extremists.” 1515

WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. (AP) — President Donald Trump has signed a 0 billion pandemic relief package that will deliver long-sought cash to businesses and individuals.CNN and Politico also confirmed the news Sunday evening. 231

When Madame Tussauds Wax Museum reopens on Friday, President Donald Trump's wax figure will greet anyone who walks in, while donning a mask. 148

While congressional leaders continue to search for viable solutions to address America's gun violence, not even some of the more limited proposals are likely to make it to the Senate floor this week, and other issues are starting to crowd Capitol Hill's agenda.It's been more than two weeks since a gunman killed 17 people at a high school in Parkland, Florida, but mixed messages from the White House and reluctance in Congress to tackle anything more than narrow changes has led to a legislative paralysis in Washington.At the forefront of the uncertainty on guns is President Donald Trump. Congressional leaders, as well as rank-and-file members, had been waiting for Trump to take the lead on the issue or at least clearly spell out his priorities, but after a week's worth of confusing and seemingly conflicted statements, the President's contributions have done little to move legislation forward.  917

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