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When experts look at the economy and its rebound, they go through an alphabet soup of letters, with a “V” shape recovery being the best-case scenario. It’s a fast decline with a fast recovery. Letters like “W” or “L” mean a much slower and painful path forward.A resurgence of more COVID-19 cases is shifting the likely shape of our economic recovery, and having economists evaluate the likelihood of a recovery in the shape of the more dreaded letters.“The fact that the virus has increased in a number of states shows that it is still very much a threat not only to one’s health but the economy,” said Michelle Meyer, who heads U.S. Economics at Bank of America. “The initial stage of the recovery was quite robust. It felt quite ‘V’ like, the economy was digging its way out of what was a very deep hole.”According to Bank of America, about a third of the jobs lost during the pandemic have been recovered. However, the recovery has slowed down into more of a “U” shape, and now data is showing a stall with concern of a higher chance of a “W” or “L” shape recovery.“The ‘W’ trajectory would be the worst-case scenario. That would show real fragility on the economy if we dipped back into a recession,” added Meyer.Experts say it would lead even higher unemployment, and more permanent job loss and business closures. In addition, to come out of a “W” or “L” shape recovery, we would need even more stimulus money from the federal government, which may not even improve the economic downturn as much as it did the first time.“Stimulus in Washington provides a really nice band-aid and I think it helped tremendously in the first stage of this recovery but at the end of the day, we need the economy to fundamentally improve,” said Meyer.The good news is unless there is a significant or full shutdown again, a “W” shape recovery is still less likely to occur than a “U” shape.“Our analysis projects that a 'U' shape recovery with rather steep losses and growth this year and rather flat next year and then recovering subsequently is the most likely outcome,” said David Turkington, the Senior Vice President at State Street Associates.A recent State Street study based on 100 years of historical data shows that the U.S. still has 30.1% chance of a “U” recovery, and a combined 24.4% chance of a “W” or “L” shape recovery which include stagflation and depression outcomes.“The real economy I think is what determines the recovery and how that plays forward,” said Turkington.The real economy is jobs, businesses and consumer spending. Providing stability there could determine which way the economy goes. 2615

When "Saturday Night Live" returns to the airwaves in October, they'll be "live from New York" once again.The comedy sketch show announced it on Twitter with a 12-second video. 184

When it comes to holidays and cookies, it seems most people in the United States are fans of peanut butter and sugar cookies.Instagram recently released a map showing what holiday cookie is the most popular in each state and peanut butter and sugar cookies were the clear favorites - with each cookie being named the most popular in 10 states. 351

Wisconsin Gov. Tony Evers and the Department of Health Services issued a new order Tuesday limiting the capacity of bars, restaurants and stores in the state to 25% on Tuesday, as Wisconsin becomes a hot spot for COVID-19 in the U.S.Evers directed DHS Secretary-Designee Andrea Palm to issue the order Tuesday afternoon.The order is capping capacity to 25% in public spaces beginning on Thursday. Gatherings in indoor spaces without an occupancy limit are limited to 10 people."We're seeing increased COVID-19 hospitalizations across the state, and every region is reporting current and imminent hospital staffing shortages in one or more of their facilities," Palm said.Wisconsin has become a hot spot for coronavirus cases in the country after schools reopened this fall. The state has tallied record numbers of cases, hospitalizations and deaths in recent days. Areas that have been hit particularly hard include the state's two largest cities — Milwaukee and Madison — as well as smaller cities like Fox Valley, Green Bay and Wausau.The governor's top attorney, Ryan Nilsestuen, says he's confident the restrictions will withstand legal challenges from the GOP-controlled legislature. Evers' "Safer at Home: order issued last March was eventually blocked by the Wisconsin Supreme Court, after the legislature raised objections with a potential overreach of authority by the health department and the governor's office.“At the end of the day, doing orders and having them challenged in court maybe makes for great theater,” Evers said during a press conference Tuesday. “But it frankly does nothing in making sure people are safer in the state of Wisconsin.”The order goes into effect at 8 a.m. local time on Thursday and will remain in effect until Nov. 6. Violators could face forfeitures of up to 0, according to the governor.The order does not apply to outdoor spaces.The DHS tallied 2,020 new cases on Tuesday and 18 new deaths caused by complications from the coronavirus. Wisconsin has recorded 136,379 confirmed cases and 1,399 deaths since the pandemic began.“We’re in a crisis right now and need to immediately change our behavior to save lives,” Evers said in a statement. “We are continuing to experience a surge in cases and many of our hospitals are overwhelmed, and I believe limiting indoor public gatherings will help slow the spread of this virus. Folks, we need your help and we need all Wisconsinites to work together during this difficult time. The sooner we get control of this virus, the sooner our economy, communities, and state can bounce back.”Criticism to the news was swift. State Rep. Shae Sortwell, R-Two Rivers, went after the new orders in a Facebook video."Apparently he’s bound to determine to just completely destroy the hospitality industry in the state of Wisconsin because that’s what he’s looking to do here," Sortwell said.The Wisconsin Manufacturers & Commerce issued a statement in response to the new order."Unfortunately, Gov. Evers’ order will cause even more harm to already-suffering businesses while failing to actually slow the spread of COVID-19 in Wisconsin," the business association said in a statement.The Metropolitan Milwaukee Association of Commerce also released a statement following the new orders."The measures introduced today by Governor Evers are well-intentioned, but are a blunt instrument that knocks down too many business establishments in metro Milwaukee that have gone to great lengths to develop comprehensive operational safety plans and have had them approved by the Milwaukee Public Health Department," the association said.Read the full order below:FULL ORDER.pdf by TODAY'S TMJ4Read the full FAQ below:FAQs.pdf by TODAY'S TMJ4"The Society supports the Department of Health Services’ action to temporarily limit indoor public gatherings because the state simply must halt its current trajectory," the society said. "We want to continue being the state leading the country in high-quality health care, not having one of the highest COVID-19 infection rates in the country.”You can read their full statement below.This story was originally published by Mayra Monroy and Jackson Danbeck on WTMJ in Milwaukee. 4200

WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. — There were plenty of Palm Beach County residents opposed to a mask mandate. Now some of them are suing to stop it.A lawsuit filed Tuesday in Palm Beach County court seeks injunctive relief to overturn the county's order.Attorneys representing Palm Beach County residents Rachel Eade, Carl Holme, Josie Machovic and Robert Spreitzer claim the new order requiring that masks be worn in public places infringes upon the constitutional rights of the plaintiffs.The 37-page lawsuit, filed by the Coconut Creek-based Florida Civil Rights Coalition, argues that the plaintiffs and other residents are having their "well-settled constitutionally protected freedoms" violated, including their "constitutional and human right to privacy and bodily autonomy."The lawsuit goes on to say that the county, having no authority to do so under Florida law, "has recklessly required countless American citizens and Florida residents," including the plaintiffs, "to submit to dangerous medical treatments with well-known risks and potential for serious injuries and death, including being forced to wear harmful medical devices like masks."Palm Beach County commissioners unanimously voted last week in favor of the mask mandate to help prevent the spread of the coronavirus amid a recent surge in cases throughout the county and state.The lawsuit takes aim at the "ridiculously vague" language of the order, which attorneys for the plaintiffs claim forces residents and visitors "to guess at the meanings and be subjected to punishment and criminal consequence."It also chastises the order's exemptions "because it arbitrarily and absurdly discriminates against anyone over the age of 2 years old, and countless citizens" who don't meet the "unlawful order's vague and ambiguous exceptions."The lawsuit berates county leaders for not clearly defining terms like "businesses or establishments" and "persons" as it is written in the order."Are non-citizens included?" attorneys wrote. "One is only left to guess, which is why the unlawful order is void for vagueness."Attorneys for the plaintiffs argue that a permanent injunction "will serve the public interest.""Millions of Palm Beach County residents and visitors are burdened by the over-reach of their local government in a fashion not before seen in the history of Florida," they wrote, adding that residents are "unduly burdened" by this violation of their rights. "The public has a strong interest in protecting their rights and ability to control their own bodies in the workplace and in public."Palm Beach County State Attorney Dave Aronberg said during a news conference Friday that commissioners do, in fact, have the constitutional authority to mandate masks."Obviously, those individuals who claim that they know the First Amendment have obviously never read the First Amendment," Aronberg said. "Because it is within the authority of the County Commission to put forward a mask ordinance. They have the authority under state law. They have the authority under the Constitution."The lawsuit seeks expedited consideration because the order is currently in effect. A written response by the county is required within 20 days of the filing.Several studies show that a mask or facial covering limits the wearer from spreading airborne droplets when speaking, sneezing or coughing. The coronavirus can live outside the body in these droplets for several hours and, in turn, infect other people — even before the person who spread the droplets has exhibited symptoms of COVID-19.Earlier this year, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) issued guidance that strongly recommended all Americans over the age of 2 wear masks in public, particularly in situations that would make social distancing impossible.This story was originally published by Peter Burke on WPTV in Palm Beach, Florida. 3872

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