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When experts look at the economy and its rebound, they go through an alphabet soup of letters, with a “V” shape recovery being the best-case scenario. It’s a fast decline with a fast recovery. Letters like “W” or “L” mean a much slower and painful path forward.A resurgence of more COVID-19 cases is shifting the likely shape of our economic recovery, and having economists evaluate the likelihood of a recovery in the shape of the more dreaded letters.“The fact that the virus has increased in a number of states shows that it is still very much a threat not only to one’s health but the economy,” said Michelle Meyer, who heads U.S. Economics at Bank of America. “The initial stage of the recovery was quite robust. It felt quite ‘V’ like, the economy was digging its way out of what was a very deep hole.”According to Bank of America, about a third of the jobs lost during the pandemic have been recovered. However, the recovery has slowed down into more of a “U” shape, and now data is showing a stall with concern of a higher chance of a “W” or “L” shape recovery.“The ‘W’ trajectory would be the worst-case scenario. That would show real fragility on the economy if we dipped back into a recession,” added Meyer.Experts say it would lead even higher unemployment, and more permanent job loss and business closures. In addition, to come out of a “W” or “L” shape recovery, we would need even more stimulus money from the federal government, which may not even improve the economic downturn as much as it did the first time.“Stimulus in Washington provides a really nice band-aid and I think it helped tremendously in the first stage of this recovery but at the end of the day, we need the economy to fundamentally improve,” said Meyer.The good news is unless there is a significant or full shutdown again, a “W” shape recovery is still less likely to occur than a “U” shape.“Our analysis projects that a 'U' shape recovery with rather steep losses and growth this year and rather flat next year and then recovering subsequently is the most likely outcome,” said David Turkington, the Senior Vice President at State Street Associates.A recent State Street study based on 100 years of historical data shows that the U.S. still has 30.1% chance of a “U” recovery, and a combined 24.4% chance of a “W” or “L” shape recovery which include stagflation and depression outcomes.“The real economy I think is what determines the recovery and how that plays forward,” said Turkington.The real economy is jobs, businesses and consumer spending. Providing stability there could determine which way the economy goes. 2615
With health care costs on the rise, a growing number of Americans are throwing out the old way of seeing a doctor and turning to a membership model. A monthly or annual fee gets you direct access to a doctor, no insurance needed.Twenty years into her career, bogged down by red tape, too many patients and long days, Dr. Shaila Pai-Verma was looking for a better way to practice medicine.“I was just miserable,” she said. “The joy of medicine is gone and then you're just doing paperwork.”So, a year ago, she started a new primary care practice with a new business model.“The patient basically has a direct contract with the physician and they take insurance companies out of it,” she explained.Patients pay a flat monthly or yearly fee. In exchange, they receive a broad range of primary care services and quick, unlimited access to their doctor via in-person office visits, phone or by text.“Everyone wants everything immediate. And so, I think this is it. It's good, especially in this time for people to have access,” said Pai-Verma.Membership fees range from about 5 to 0 per month on average – about 0 less than having typical health insurance. Most patients still carry catastrophic coverage for emergency treatments and hospitalizations, but that insurance is usually only -100 a month, so patients still save money.For Bonnie Micheli and her family, it was all about access.“With this, it's just so much easier to just know that I can contact directly here within a few hours for any issues that I'm having,” said Micheli.In late September, a bipartisan proposal was introduced in Congress that would expand access to the model and allow people to use their health savings account for direct primary care (DPC).Because they see fewer patients than traditional practices, some critics say the model could worsen the shortage of primary care physicians, a trend that’s already driven by burnout.But according to a recent study, DPC members had 25% lower hospital admissions and the cost of emergency room claims was reduced by 54%.“There's less ER visits and you know, better health care for the patient,” said Pai-Verma.While there is still debate, for a growing number of Americans, like Micheli, it’s becoming a simplified health insurance alternative.“Honestly, it’s just so nice to know what I'm paying every month or if you do the annual, what you're getting for that money, and you know exactly who to go to when you have a problem.” 2467
When Tim Frye retired from his job as a project manager in 2017, he envisioned traveling the U.S. in an RV with his fiancée. But not long after spending about a quarter of a million dollars on a luxurious, 39-foot 2014 Forest River Berkshire motorhome, his fiancée left him — and he was left with a very expensive vehicle in his yard.“I could sell it, but I’d lose a ton of money because I had just bought it and wouldn’t be able to get the full value back,” Frye said. “Or I could rent it out.”Frye, who lives in Flower Mound, Texas, opted for the latter, posting his motorhome on online RV rental marketplace Outdoorsy, which is essentially Airbnb for motorhomes and campervans. Owners coordinate with renters on a meetup spot and handle the vehicle maintenance and cleaning. Outdoorsy handles the booking requests, transactions and RV insurance.In his first two years renting his RV on the site, business already was good for Frye. But everything changed when coronavirus hit. And for Frye’s RV business, things changed for the better.“This is the king of side hustles for me,” Frye said.The coronavirus impact on RV rentingPortland-based Adam Clayton has two 2017 Winnebago Travato campervans available for rent on Outdoorsy. Before the pandemic, Clayton said both RVs were booked solid through October 2020. Given his location about 15 minutes from Portland International Airport, Clayton frequently catered to international visitors looking to road trip through the Pacific Northwest.But when the pandemic hit, all his out-of-towners immediately cancelled their reservations. With Oregon state parks closed, business was slow in March and April. But as parks reopened, Clayton saw a quick uptick in locals. Eager travelers converted from cruising to camping. They ignored international travel in favor of national parks. And that meant a sudden uptick in people looking to rent or buy RVs.It was a similar situation for Andrew Carson, who rents his RVs out of his home in Fredericksburg, Virginia.“As of early March, we had 11 reservations set up throughout the summer, yet once COVID hit, every single one canceled,” he said. “We panicked, thinking, ‘what have we gotten ourselves into?’ But once things started opening back up — around April — RVing became the hottest thing in America.”By May, he had already been booked for 120 days straight. Frye was especially lucky; he never even saw an initial dip.“People came to me because they had trips planned, but suddenly their hotels had canceled on them,” he said. “People were scrambling to find places to stay.”Frye says his bookings are up an average of 70% year-over-year. But while business is up, most RV owners agree that the type of business has massively shifted. It’s a lot of first-timers (Carson estimates about 70% of rentals this year were to first-timers), which means owners have to spend more time with renters during the initial walkthrough, and there’s higher odds of renters running into issues simply for being novices.With the usual RV-friendly spots off the list as music festivals remain canceled and many ski resorts are still closed, people are also shifting where they’re headed.“I’ve already booked two customers who are driving my RV to their parents’ houses,” Clayton said. “Rather than stay inside the parents’ house, they’re going to park in the driveway.”How much money can you make renting out an RV?RV rental marketplace RVshare estimates that owners of Class A RVs (those are the largest, most luxurious of the motorized RVs), can earn as much as ,000 per year through their site.There are also some costs involved, however:Commission fees: Online RV rental marketplaces typically charge a commission. Outdoorsy takes a 20% cut of the total reservation cost. RVshare is less transparent about fees since the commission rate correlates with revenue, but owners say it’s typically a 25% cut.Monthly payments, insurance and maintenance: If you’re financing your RV, you’ll have to make monthly loan payments, which likely also means interest and fees. Plus, factor in expenses like maintenance and RV insurance.Storage: RV storage can also be pricey if you don’t have your own garage to store it in. Expect to pay at least ,500 a year — and even more if you’re in a high-cost-of-living area or have an especially large vehicle.But still, it’s a lucrative side hustle. Frye said after accounting for all those costs, he still pockets ,000 annually on his single RV.Virginia-based Carson owns two Class C motorhomes (those are often referred to as mini-motorhomes). Between insurance and monthly payments on his two RVs, he pays about ,400 a month in RV-business related expenses — which easily pay for themselves. Carson said that this summer he grossed ,500 per month between both RVs.Considerations when getting into an RV-renting side hustleHigher-end vehicles typically work out to be better long-termFrye’s RV is a Class A motorhome, which is essentially a full house on wheels that’s big enough to stand up straight inside, has a full kitchen and bathroom, and sleeps multiple people.While they’re more expensive, Frye said he believes Class A motorhomes more easily retain their value versus a cheaper RV, like a campervan. He also said that since the RV is more expensive for renters, it attracts clientele who are more likely to take care of it.It’s good income, but it’s not passive incomeOwning an RV requires regular work. There’s annual maintenance, but there’s also work to be done with every rental. Between doing laundry, power washing the outside and wiping down the inside, Carson estimates he spends three to six hours cleaning the RV after every trip. He also spends about 30 minutes on the pre-rental walkthrough (and sometimes more if the renter is a newbie). Plus, he spends hours each week scheduling and communicating with renters online.Accept that they won’t be returned in perfect conditionWith strangers driving your RV, it’s bound to get dinged up, especially with more first-time RV renters. Even though RV experts will usually tell you they’re not as hard to drive as you might think, they’re still much tougher to navigate than your average small sedan.“You can’t be too emotionally attached,” Frye said.While sites like Outdoorsy do provide insurance, Frye still acknowledged that putting your RV up for rent is not for you if you’ll be flustered by every little scratch.“If they’re seriously damaged, Outdoorsy insurance pays for it,” Clayton said. “But if it’s something smaller — like a faucet breaks — I just fix it. It’s a business, so treat it like a business. If something gets scratched, don’t freak out.”Location mattersFrye attributes his Texas location as a big factor in maintaining consistent bookings year round, as opposed to owners up north who experience a dip in bookings once it gets colder.And specific locations within that area make a difference too. Carson lives just off of Interstate 95, the main highway along the East Coast, which means easy access for road trippers headed up to Maine or down to Florida.Getting into the RV business nowWith road trips surging in popularity, it’s a lucrative time to adopt RV renting as a side hustle. But if you don’t yet actually have an RV to rent out, good luck.Just before COVID-19 was part of the lexicon, Clayton had run the numbers and was committed to buying a third RV to build his small business sometime in 2020. But just as the rental business is booming under COVID-19, so is the business of owning one.“Every Class B RV — even if it does go on Craigslist — is now exorbitantly priced,” he said. “My only regret prior to all this is that I hadn’t purchased four RVs.”Frye is in a similar boat as Clayton; three years after buying his RV with a fiancée who has since left him, his only regret about buying one RV is not buying more RVs.“The RV market is so hot right now,” he said. “I’m trying to find another one to buy, but suddenly since the coronavirus hit, everyone wants to buy an RV.”And Frye has one more personal reason to add more RVs to his collection: He’s since met someone new — and she and her daughter both love RV camping with him.More From NerdWalletRenting Hotels for Big Events Is Dirt-Cheap … for NowAsk a Points Nerd: How Can I Celebrate the Holidays Without Travel?4 Benefits You Need From Your Travel Credit Card in 2021Sally French is a writer at NerdWallet. Email: sfrench@nerdwallet.com. Twitter: @SAFmedia. 8451
Winnie Madikizela-Mandela, the South African anti-apartheid activist and former wife of the late President Nelson Mandela, has died at the age of 81.The family said in a statement that she passed away at the Netcare Milpark Hospital in Johannesburg, South Africa after a long illness, for which she had been in and out of hospital since the start of the year. 367
Who doesn’t like a bargain? In honor of dads across America, a number of companies are offering discounts this weekend for Father’s Day.According to RetailMeNot, American consumers are planning on spending an average of per person on Father’s Day.And if you’re wondering what dad wants, RetailMeNot suggests giving a gift card.The top choices for Father's Day gifts include:40% prefer a gift card32% would like dinner from a restaurant27% would like an at-home prepared meal27% prefer clothing18% would like an alcohol purchaseIf you’re looking for a last-minute gift or to take advantage of a discount, here is a partial list of deals for fathers across the US (Note, participation may vary):Chili’s: On June 19th through June 21st, Chili’s is offering a 6 ounce Sirloin and lunch portion of Chicken Fajitas for its 3 for menu.Columbia: The outdoor clothing retailer is offering 25% off across its website this weekend.Eddie Bauer: Eddie Bauer is offering an additional 10% off of 50% by using code “EXTRA10” this weekend.El Pollo Loco: The restaurant chain is giving dads prizes like e-gift cards, grill sets and a grand prize of a ,050 custom Imperial Grill and grilling lesson from a top Grill Master. The promotion is on the company’s Instagram page.Kohl’s: By using promocode “DADSDAY,” customers can get a 20% off discount on select items.Whataburger: Now through June 28 at participating locations, customers can purchase one Honey BBQ Chicken Strip Sandwich and get a second one free. Customers can earn the free sandwich by downloading the restaurant’s smartphone app.If you’re looking for restaurant gift cards, Applebee’s, Cheesecake Factory, and the Olive Garden are all offering an additional gift card with the purchase of a gift card. 1776