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As the Summer of COVID draws to a close, many experts fear an even bleaker fall and suggest that American families should start planning for Thanksgiving by Zoom.Because of the many uncertainties, public health scientists say it’s easier to forecast the weather on Thanksgiving Day than to predict how the U.S. coronavirus crisis will play out this autumn. But school reopenings, holiday travel and more indoor activity because of colder weather could all separately increase transmission of the virus and combine in ways that could multiply the threat, they say.Here’s one way it could go: As more schools open for in-person instruction and more college students return to campuses, small clusters of cases could widen into outbreaks in late September. Public fatigue over mask rules and other restrictions could stymie efforts to slow these infections.A few weeks later, widening outbreaks could start to strain hospitals. If a bad flu season peaks in October, as happened in 2009, the pressure on the health care system could result in higher daily death tolls from the coronavirus. Dr. Robert Redfield, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, has said that scenario is his biggest fear.One certainty is that the virus will still be around, said Jarad Niemi, a disease-modeling expert at Iowa State University.“We will not have a vaccine yet and we will not have enough infected individuals for herd immunity to be helpful,” Niemi said.Fall may feel like a roller coaster of stop-and-start restrictions, as communities react to climbing hospital cases, said University of Texas disease modeler Lauren Ancel Meyers. Everyone should get a flu shot, she said, because if flu spreads widely, hospitals will begin to buckle and “that will compound the threat of COVID.”“The decisions we make today will fundamentally impact the safety and feasibility of what we can do next month and by Thanksgiving,” Meyers said.The virus is blamed for over 180,000 deaths and 6 million confirmed infections in the U.S. Worldwide, the death toll is put at almost 850,000, with over 25 million cases.The U.S. is recording on average about 900 deaths a day from COVID-19, and newly confirmed infections per day are running at about 42,000, down from their peak in mid-July, when cases were topping out at over 70,000.Around the country, a chicken processing plant in California will close this week for deep cleaning after nearly 400 workers got sick, including eight who died. And college campuses have been hit by outbreaks involving hundreds of students, blamed in some cases on too much partying. Schools including the University of North Carolina, Michigan State and Notre Dame have moved instruction online because of clusters on their campuses.Several vaccines are in advanced testing, and researchers hope to have results later this year. But even if a vaccine is declared safe and effective by year’s end, as some expect, there won’t be enough for everyone who wants it right away.Several companies are developing rapid, at-home tests, which conceivably could be used by families before a Thanksgiving gathering, but none has yet won approval.More than 90 million adults are over 65 or have health problems, putting them in higher danger of severe consequences if they get sick with the coronavirus. Many of them and their families are starting to decide whether to book holiday flights.Cassie Docking, 44, an urgent care nurse in Seattle, is telling her parents — both cancer survivors — that Thanksgiving will be by FaceTime only.“We all want to get to 2021,” she said, “and if that’s what it takes, that’s what we’ll do.”Caitlin Joyce’s family is forging ahead with a holiday feast. They plan to set up plywood tables on sawhorses in a large garage so they can sit 6 feet apart.“We’ll be in our coats and our sweaters,” said Joyce, 30, of Edmonds, Washington, who plans to travel to her grandparents’ home in Virginia. “It will be almost like camping.”One widely cited disease model projects 2,086 U.S. deaths per day by Thanksgiving, more than double compared with today.“In our family we will not have our extended family get-together. We will stick to the nuclear family,” said Dr. Christopher Murray of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, one of the few models making a prediction for November.Uncertainty is huge in Murray’s model: Daily deaths could be as low as 1,500 by Thanksgiving or as high as 3,100. In a more optimistic scenario, daily deaths could range from 510 to 1,200 if nearly everyone wears masks. A more pessimistic scenario? From 2,700 to 6,500 daily deaths if social distancing rules continue to be lifted and are not reimposed.With all the uncertainty, most disease modelers aren’t looking that far ahead — at least officially.Jeffrey Shaman, a public health expert at Columbia University, thinks the virus will spread more easily as the weather forces people indoors: “But what level of a bump? That’s hard to say.”At Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh, computer scientist Roni Rosenfeld’s team uses machine learning to project COVID-19 deaths. The team’s computer algorithm learns from patterns it finds in state and county data to improve its forecasts.A five-time winner of a CDC competition for predicting flu season activity, Rosenfeld thinks his model’s COVID-19 projections aren’t very useful beyond four weeks because of the wild card of human behavior, including that of government officials.“What happens very much depends on us,” he said. “People, myself included, don’t always behave rationally.” Presented with the same facts, “the same person might behave differently depending on how sick and tired they are of the situation.”Like other disease modelers, Rosenfeld said the virus will still be with us at Thanksgiving, readily spreading at family gatherings. While his plans may yet change, he said he is going to travel with his wife to visit their adult children. They will wear masks and keep a safe distance during the visit.___The Associated Press Health and Science Department receives support from the Howard Hughes Medical Institute’s Department of Science Education. The AP is solely responsible for all content. 6201

As so many massive data breaches have shown, there's no way to completely protect your information from swindlers.But being aware of fraudulent schemes — especially during tax season — can minimize your bad luck. And it can protect you from IRS penalties, interest and in some cases criminal prosecution if you fall for them.Here are 12 of the biggest tax scams the IRS is flagging this year:1. Phone scams: Put simply, anyone who calls or texts you unsolicited and claims to be from the IRS is a fraud. The IRS will never call, text or email you out of the blue. It will never ask you to wire cash or provide bank and credit card numbers. It will never call to threaten you with arrest or deportation.So, if you're contacted, don't give out any information about yourself. Just hang up.2. Phishing: Emails enticing you to click on a link and give up personal information (name, Social Security number, bank account numbers, etc.) are a scourge of daily life.This tax season the IRS is seeing a new twist on phishing: Unexpected deposits of tax refunds in your bank account.Criminals who've stolen your tax and banking information from elsewhere file a fraudulent tax return in your name and have the refund deposited in your account. They then will contact you by phone or email pretending to be from the IRS or a collection agency, claiming a refund was deposited erroneously in your account and ordering you to send it to them.In other email schemes, criminals may pose as your bank or other legitimate institution you know to get you to fork over your passwords, Social Security number and other valuable information.3. Tax return preparer fraud: Most tax preparers may be honest. But there are still many unscrupulous ones.One telltale sign of a fraudster: They base their fee on the size of your refund and encourage you to take tax breaks you're not entitled to or to under-report your income to inflate your refund.Another: They don't insist you give them records and receipts. Or they ask you to sign a blank return.Before giving any information to a new preparer, ask for an IRS Preparer Tax Identification Number. You can also search the IRS directory of credentialed preparers. If he says he's a CPA, check your State Board of Accountancy. Or for attorneys, check with your State Bar Association.Also, make sure he can e-file returns. Preparers who have more than 10 clients have to be able to do that.4. Falsely inflating refunds: Scam artists posing as tax preparers may file false information on your return all for the purpose of inflating your refund.They may report deductions, credits or exemptions you don't qualify for. Or they may try to report your taxable income as zero through the use of bogus forms.5. Falsely inflating income: Some fraudsters try to inflate your income — reporting wages or self-employment income you didn't earn — to qualify you for a refundable credit like the Earned Income Tax Credit.6. Falsely padding deductions: Some tax preparers may encourage you to overstate your deductions, such as charitable contributions, to get a larger refund or reduce what you owe.7. Improperly claiming business credits: If a tax preparer encourages you to take a business credit like the research and development tax credit or the fuel tax credit, make sure you're eligible first.Here's a break down of how to qualify..8. Making frivolous tax arguments: Did you know that the First Amendment lets you refuse to pay taxes on moral or religious grounds?Well, it doesn't.But anyone who tries to snooker you into believing that it does — or tries to sell you on other too-good-to-be-true ideas — is encouraging you to engage in frivolous tax arguments to lower your tax obligations.9. Abusive tax shelters: If someone tries to sell you on the idea of protecting your money from taxes through a complicated scheme, be wary. It could be an illegal tax shelter.The IRS this year is particularly attuned to so-called "micro-captive" insurance structures. While some are legitimate, there are cases where "promoters, accountants, or wealth planners persuade owners of closely-held entities to participate in schemes that lack many of the attributes of genuine insurance," the agency noted.Before signing on to any type of shelter: Ask the person trying to sell you the product whether she's collecting a referral fee from anyone, and get a second opinion about the set-up from a trusted, independent tax adviser.10. Fake charities: Groups asking for money that have names or websites very similar to well-known charities may be scams. To verify whether they're a qualified charity to which contributions are tax deductible, ask for the group's Employer Identification Number and enter it into the IRS Exempt Organizations Select Check.11. Hiding money offshore: There is nothing wrong with having money offshore so long as you report your foreign accounts to the IRS every year, and pay whatever US taxes are owed on them. But if anyone tries to sell you on an account in another country or non-US territory and promises your money will be protected from US taxes and IRS detection, that's likely an offshore tax cheating scheme.12. Identity theft: The good news is reports of tax-related identity theft have gone down. The bad news? It's still a big risk. Thieves armed with your Social Security number or Individual Taxpayer Identification Number can file a return in your name and claim your refund before you do.The best way to protect yourself is to be vigilant about not falling for the most prevalent tax scams listed here.And never give your personal information to untrustworthy sources.  5633

As the debate over police defunding wages on in parts of the country, officials in Albuquerque, New Mexico have found a middle ground.Mayor Tim Keller recently introduced a plan to strip the police department of million each year to help create and fund a new department that would respond to certain 911 calls instead of police.He says the city is the first in the country to do this."It’s a public health approach to public safety,” said Keller.The new department would consist of service workers, public health personnel, and specialists who would respond to calls related to homelessness, mental illness, and drug overdoses."For modern history, every city has said we’ll either send police or fire,” said Keller. “It’s about restructuring, institutionally, how we respond.”"We’re not the experts. We go over there and a lot of times our officers don’t know what to do,” added Albuquerque Police Chief Michael Geier.Geirer says the introduction of the new department comes as a relief. His police department is already short-staffed with officers, so handing these calls off to specialized personnel would not only help his department but the public.“We’ll be able to handle the higher-priority calls, and then our response time, and our community engagement," he said. "There will be more trust in the community.”Greier says, to a degree, the Albuquerque Police Department has already started delegating certain calls to the fire department and it has spared officers from responding to nearly 15,000 calls in just the last few months--many of which could keep an officer on scene for hours.“We want to get past responding to the symptom of the root cause,” said Albuquerque Chief Administrative Officer Sarita Nair. “We want to get down to that root cause and start addressing issues there.”Mayor Keller says the move to create the new department was only made recently, so there will be substantial planning and public input before it actually goes into effect. 1979

AUSTIN, Texas -- Valarie Allman has been throwing discus for 10 years.“When you throw a discus it takes about two seconds, and it’s a combination of power, of grace, of strength… I like to think of it as a dance still," Allman said.She started sophomore year of high school. But it’s her dance background that she credits for her quick progression in the sport.“I had a weird knack for it," Allman said. "I think all those years of learning choreography and spinning and doing pirouettes weirdly carried over to the discus, and it kind of just seemed like a good fit right from the start.”Multiple days every week, she trains hard in the gym guided by her coach Zebulon Sion.“I’m responsible for every facet of her training," Sion said. "So that includes the strength-training concepts, if we do any type of running, fitness oriented things, plyometrics, and then of course the actual throwing.”Their chemistry is undeniable.At only 25 years old, Allman is considered a pro athlete. Her rigorous training is fueled by her desire to be a part of the next Olympics.“When I graduated college, I think that was the motivation to keep training. I missed the team in 2016 by three feet and it was kind of in that moment that I realized that I really wanted to try again,” Allman said.Consistency, discipline, attention to detail. Allman’s focus didn’t falter until she found out the 2020 Olympics had to be postponed.“It was pretty heartbreaking," Allman said. "I mean, to feel like you’ve put in so much to be prepared for it and to be healthy and to do everything right to feel like you’d have a chance to make the team and then for it to be postponed I think it kind of just made me question everything.”“Her motivation to throw kind of was gone a bit for her for a while," Sion said. "And then we kind of got to a point after a month, month-and-a-half of training going well in terms of lifting and training -- our goal was to get fit, get strong and refine the technical model that she has to get to a point where we could be at our best if that opportunity would come.”That opportunity did come. On August 1st in Rathdrum, Idaho, Allman beat the Women's Discus American Record.“I threw 70 meters and 15 centimeters, and the previous record was 69 meters and 17 centimeters.”The three-foot difference that kept her from qualifying for the Olympics in 2016 is the difference she surpassed to become the first and only American woman to throw past 70 meters.“When you’re throwing that type of distance, three feet is significant. So to break it by almost three feet was huge actually,” Sion said.“When they measured the throw and they read out the numbers and it started with a seven I instantly burst into tears. I was absolutely shocked,” Allman said.Allman says 70 meters is the ultimate barrier. In the past 20 years, only two other women in the world have thrown past 70 meters.“Now looking back it’s wild the think it was just a sliver of a difference of giving up when we were on the brink of something incredible,” Allman said.“We could have called it we could have said 2020 is a bust ya know let’s move on," Sion said. "But the amount of time, energy, effort all the things to put in over five months of uncertainty and then for that to happen – I don’t know if I could be more proud.”The same day of her record-breaking throw was the exact day she would have been competing in Tokyo had the Olympics continued. However, with her dedication to improvement, Sion believes there’s a great future ahead of Allman.“I mean I think the goal is just to throw farther and to keep throwing far more often. I mean it’s pretty simple,” Allman said.Even more simple when you’re having fun. 3692

As someone who once criticized President Barack Obama for offering public timelines on American military engagement overseas, US President Donald Trump may have backed himself into a corner following his own promise to respond, and respond harshly, to the deadly chemical attacks in Syria.Last week he declared he wanted to withdraw US troops from Syria as soon as possible. But the suspected use of chemical weapons in Syria over the weekend may force him to reevaluate the US mission in that country.Vowing on Monday to come to a decision "over the next 24 to 48 hours" on how to make Syria pay a "big price," Trump's White House now appears to be scrambling to match its policy to his words.Trump tweeted Wednesday that missiles "are coming" in response to a threat from Russia to shoot down missiles coming into Syria.  836

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