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The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation has published projections on just how the onslaught of COVID-19 cases are expected to impact the nation and all 50 states in the coming weeks. The data, which the White House has used to help advise President Donald Trump and members of the coronavirus task force, is dubbed the "Chris Murray Model." The Chris Murray Model is made available through the University of Washington website. It is updated every morning based on testing from around the country.Dr. Debroah Birx, a member of the White House coronavirus task force, said that the data is consistent with projections used from 12 other sources the White House has relied on to model its COVID-19 projections. "We’ve reviewed 12 different models, and then we went back to the drawing board over the last week or two, and worked from the ground up utilizing actual reporting of cases," Birx said in a White House briefing on Sunday. "It’s the way we built the HIV model, the TB model, and the malaria model. When we finished, the other group that was working in parallel which we didn’t know about, (Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation) and Chris Murray, ended up at the same numbers. So if you go on his website, you can see the concern that we had with the growing number of potential fatalities.” As of Tuesday, the Chris Murray Model projects that the United States would see a peak demand of ICU visits around April 11 and hospitalizations on April 15. The data also projects that the national peak of deaths per day would come around April 15. Unfortunately, the data suggests that the demand in most states will far exceed the supply for ICU beds. In New York, the number of patients requiring an ICU bed will exceed the supply of such beds by 12 times, based on the projection. In Louisiana, the demand for ICU beds is expected to be three times the supply. The Chris Murray Model does offer some optimism that the United States will successfully "flatten the curve." Only a handful of states are expected to have a shortage of overall hospital beds. It also shows that numbers in most states will begin to tail off by early May, although some states, such as Virginia, could still be dealing with a number of cases well into June. The model also assumes that every state will maintain social distancing guidelines through the duration of the epidemic, which offers a key variable on how the numbers could change. The Chris Murray Model does have a slightly more optimistic outlook on the number of fatalities compared to official White House figures. The Chris Murray Model projects a death toll of nearly 84,000 COVID-19-related deaths into the summer, giving an overall projected range of nearly 36,000 to 154,000. The White House said on Tuesday that it is projecting a national death toll of 100,000 to 240,000. The projection shows that as many Americans will die from COVID-19 in April compared to an entire high-end flu season, even with social distancing guidelines in place. Click 3025
The NYPD is continuing to monitor activity in the Middle East and taking every necessary step to protect this city against any potential threats and keep New Yorkers safe.— Mayor Bill de Blasio (@NYCMayor) January 8, 2020 233
The countdown to Christmas is on, but for some people the holidays bring stress and loneliness."My grandma died years ago, but it like always hit us around the holiday because she always made our holiday better," said Tynisha Trice of Milwaukee."The most holiday blues I get is wanting to do nice stuff for my family but not be able to really afford it," Lainey Koch said.People can suffer from stress, anxiety and depression throughout the year, but those feelings can intensify around the holidays."When you're not feeling like celebrating, having the feelings of anxiety and depression are more acute and you feel more different than the society around you, so it makes suffering from that more isolating," said Rachel Henrichs, a clinical instructor at UW-Milwaukee's College of Nursing, "I would encourage people to reach out and let other people that care about them know."For Trice, baking pies like her grandma did around the holidays helps her continue to cope with her loss. Koch, an artist, said she enjoys making handmade gifts instead of buying them.Henrichs advised practicing self care. It could be taking a walk, talking with a friend or getting a massage.She also suggested if you are trying to help someone acknowledge how they are feeling."Be patient with them, be present with them. That's very helpful," said Henrichs.If you experiencing a crisis or need help, calling 211 is good place to start. 1430
The NFL said Monday the 2020 college draft would still take place on April 23-25, but it was canceling the public events surrounding the event in Las Vegas.The league said that it still plans on televising the event, but did not go into specifics."This decision reflects our foremost priority -- the health and safety of all fans and citizens," NFL commissioner Roger Goodell in a 393
Terry Walker Sr. worked at ship yards and factories before he settled into a career with the railroad and retired with nearly 30 years of service.He never expected to be homeless at the age of 71.“Especially retiring from the railroad, I never dreamed it possible,” Walker said. “I’ve been homeless, I would say, at least eight to 10 times in the last four years off and on. All my homelessness has been since retirement.”Walker is far from alone.Advocates and shelter operators said they have seen a marked increase in the number of older adults experiencing homelessness in Cincinnati and Northern Kentucky. 621