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The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation has published projections on just how the onslaught of COVID-19 cases are expected to impact the nation and all 50 states in the coming weeks. The data, which the White House has used to help advise President Donald Trump and members of the coronavirus task force, is dubbed the "Chris Murray Model." The Chris Murray Model is made available through the University of Washington website. It is updated every morning based on testing from around the country.Dr. Debroah Birx, a member of the White House coronavirus task force, said that the data is consistent with projections used from 12 other sources the White House has relied on to model its COVID-19 projections. "We’ve reviewed 12 different models, and then we went back to the drawing board over the last week or two, and worked from the ground up utilizing actual reporting of cases," Birx said in a White House briefing on Sunday. "It’s the way we built the HIV model, the TB model, and the malaria model. When we finished, the other group that was working in parallel which we didn’t know about, (Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation) and Chris Murray, ended up at the same numbers. So if you go on his website, you can see the concern that we had with the growing number of potential fatalities.” As of Tuesday, the Chris Murray Model projects that the United States would see a peak demand of ICU visits around April 11 and hospitalizations on April 15. The data also projects that the national peak of deaths per day would come around April 15. Unfortunately, the data suggests that the demand in most states will far exceed the supply for ICU beds. In New York, the number of patients requiring an ICU bed will exceed the supply of such beds by 12 times, based on the projection. In Louisiana, the demand for ICU beds is expected to be three times the supply. The Chris Murray Model does offer some optimism that the United States will successfully "flatten the curve." Only a handful of states are expected to have a shortage of overall hospital beds. It also shows that numbers in most states will begin to tail off by early May, although some states, such as Virginia, could still be dealing with a number of cases well into June. The model also assumes that every state will maintain social distancing guidelines through the duration of the epidemic, which offers a key variable on how the numbers could change. The Chris Murray Model does have a slightly more optimistic outlook on the number of fatalities compared to official White House figures. The Chris Murray Model projects a death toll of nearly 84,000 COVID-19-related deaths into the summer, giving an overall projected range of nearly 36,000 to 154,000. The White House said on Tuesday that it is projecting a national death toll of 100,000 to 240,000. The projection shows that as many Americans will die from COVID-19 in April compared to an entire high-end flu season, even with social distancing guidelines in place. Click 3025
The Bellagio hotel-casino on the Las Vegas Strip has unveiled a new, limited-run fountain show based on "Game of Thrones." It's a spectacle that has everyone talking not only in Las Vegas, but around the world. The megahit HBO series has taken TV by storm, getting viewers hooked on a medieval fantasy world.The final season of "Game of Thrones" premiers on April 14, and the quest for the throne begins at the Fountains of Bellagio.The new show didn't disappoint crowds who watched brand-new special effects and listened to a special score."I got goose bumps when I saw this. It was just epic to see it played out here at the Bellagio," said Ramin Djawadi, score composer for the series "Game of Thrones.""It was unbelievable to experience it," Djawadi said.This fountain show, which lasts only two weeks, is like no other in the attraction's 20-year history of dazzling crowds on the famed Las Vegas Strip."It was definitely different. There were so many different things going into it: the projection, the fire," said Peter Kopik, director of choreography and design for WET Design, the company behind the Fountains of Bellagio."For the two people out there who don't know what 'Game of Thrones' is," WET CEO Mark Fuller joked with Action News, "it is the absolutely ultimate experience in theater and storytelling."Crowds lining the Strip before the Sunday night premiere gave the show rave reviews."The fire was awesome. You could feel the flames," said Corey Olcsvary. "The lighting effects, seeing the dragon coming through, the fire and the ice kind of battling against each other, it makes me watch to catch up with the seasons," the Seattle resident told Action News.The show will take place nightly at 8 and 9:30 p.m. ending on April 13.WATCH FULL SHOW BELOW 1781
The Music City of Nashville will go silent today for #BlackoutTuesday. It’s all part of an effort to show solidarity in the aftermath of George Floyd’s death. Industry leaders say it’s time to reconnect with the community in the wake of Floyd’s death. Musicians and artists everywhere will not release any music or profit off any business for the day. Event organizers say the music industry has benefited so much from African American culture – that it's only fair that today be a day for listening. Some familiar names participating in this, the Country Music Hall of Fame and Museum, Nashville’s Big Machine Label Group, Black River entertainment and Big Loud Records.The Listening Room Cafe is even canceling all events today to focus on change instead. Founder and president Chris Blair Schoessel posted on his Facebook, saying the decision was important.“I hope, and we hope, that we can begin the lead with love and find unity and justice for all. I love you guys. I love you,” he said. You’ll also notice that this movement is spreading fast on social media. The hashtag #TheShowMustBePaused is going viral. 1127
The 8-year-old Guatemalan migrant who died this week in the custody of US Customs and Border Protection had the flu, according to the New Mexico Office of the Medical Investigator.An official cause of death for Felipe Gomez Alonzo has not yet been determined.The boy, who was detained with his father, died shortly before midnight Christmas Eve at Gerald Champion Regional Medical Center in Alamogordo, New Mexico, about 90 miles north of the border crossing in El Paso, Texas.An autopsy on the boy shows he tested positive for influenza B, the medical examiner's office said Friday.Felipe was taken to the hospital Monday after a border agent noticed signs of illness, and the medical staff first diagnosed him with a common cold and later detected a fever."The child was held for an additional 90 minutes for observation and then released from the hospital mid-afternoon on December 24 with prescriptions for amoxicillin and Ibuprofen," CBP said in a statement. Amoxicillin is a commonly prescribed antibiotic.On Monday evening, the boy began vomiting and was taken back to the hospital for evaluation. He died hours later, the CBP said.Felipe was the second Guatemalan child to die in US border patrol custody this month.On December 8, Jakelin Caal Maquin, 7, died in a hospital two days after she was taken to a Border Patrol station. 1350
TEHRAN, Iran – Iran's judiciary says arrests have been made over the shootdown of a Ukrainian plane that killed all 176 people on board. A judiciary spokesman says that “extensive investigations have taken place and some individuals are arrested.” He was quoted by Iranian state media on Tuesday, but did not say how many individuals have been detained or name them. Earlier in the day, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani called for a special court to be set up to try those responsible for the plane shootdown. 521