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The holiday shopping season got off to a hot start on Friday as consumers flooded into stores and logged onto e-commerce sites in search of deals.Real-time figures from Mastercard show that overall sales are poised to hit billion on Black Friday alone. That's up about 9% from the day after Thanksgiving last year.Mastercard projects that overall holiday sales from November 1 through Christmas Eve should grow by 5% this year."We've gotten off to a very good start," said Steve Sadove, Mastercard senior advisor. "Both online and in-store sales are both tracking very well."More and more Black Friday shoppers are turning online to score discounts and deals.Adobe, which tracks online sales, reported that online purchases were up nearly 28% in the early hours of Friday morning.Very cold weather in the Northeast might be helping online sales growth on Friday, Mastercard's Sadove said.Electronics are a hot sellers. Adobe reported that the Nintendo Switch is the most popular item online, and Sadove said the new line of digital assistants and smart home products are attracting buyers.The strong holiday sales are being fueled in part by a healthy economy, which features low unemployment and some gains in average income. High levels of consumer confidence also help.In addition, the calendar is favorable for a strong holiday shopping season. Thanksgiving came earlier this year, and Christmas falls on a Tuesday. That schedule is expected to result in Sunday December 23 sales that match Black Friday sales figures.Without Toys "R" Us, which went out of business this past year, many retailers are looking for a toy boost.Sadove refers to as a "land grab" of retailers trying to up their toy offerings as a way to attract shoppers.Beyond the leaders - Walmart, Target and Amazon - Best Buy is also making a major push to sell toys. And grocer Kroger's is offering toys using the old Toys "R" Us Geoffrey the giraffe mascot with its "Geoffrey's Toy Box." 1972

The mother of Breonna Taylor wrote an open letter to President-elect Joe Biden calling on him to make criminal justice reforms and to open federal investigations into several high-profile police-involved deaths.“For many Americans, a vote for you was a vote for Breonna, Jacob Blake, Casey Goodson and so many others who have been failed repeatedly by the criminal justice system under the current administration,” Tamika Palmer wrote. “These victims could not vote for you – so millions of us did so on their behalf.”The letter was a full-page ad in the Washington Post Tuesday, and was reportedly paid for by the Grassroots Law Project.Palmer’s daughter was killed in March when Louisville police fired dozens of rounds into her apartment in an early morning warrant search.Shaun King, co-founder and Executive Director of Grassroots Law Project, shared an image of the open letter, saying Palmer “not only calls on Biden to prosecute the officers who murdered Breonna, but to bring about the change & justice he promised her.” 1041

The polling industry has a lot on the line heading into Tuesday's midterm election.Critics blamed pollsters when voters were caught off guard by Donald Trump's election in 2016. Old cries of "don't believe the polls" became fevered shouts. And the president has encouraged distrust by calling certain polls "fake" and claiming they are used to "suppress" the vote.Although there is no evidence to suggest that is true, there is persistent and widespread suspicion about polling, according to, you guessed it, a McClatchy-Marist poll. And it exists on both sides, albeit in different forms."I think Democrats may have felt let down by the polls but don't think it was an intentional error. I think many Republicans believe the polling errors of 2016 were intentional," GOP pollster and co-founder of Echelon Insights Kristen Soltis Anderson told CNN.So can the industry regain trust?Since 2016 there's been a whole lot of self-reflection in the polling world. Pollsters have tweaked their techniques; pundits have become more cautious when talking about polls; and news outlets have conducted some fascinating experiments.On Tuesday, all the efforts are being put to the test."Some pollsters would disagree with this, but the way that the public generally views whether or not polling is accurate is whether or not it gets the results of the election right," CNN analyst Harry Enten said on "Reliable Sources.""I'm not necessarily sure that's fair," Enten said, "but I do think that there is more pressure on pollsters this year to get it right given the president's rhetoric and given what happened in 2016."Many, though not all, 2016 polls underestimated support for Trump. This effect was particularly pronounced at the state level, where there were embarrassing "misses," showing Hillary Clinton with safe leads in states Trump actually carried.Most national polls accurately showed Clinton winning the popular vote. But reporters and commentators made lots of mistakes in their interpretations of the polls. Readers and viewers did, too. Many people discounted the margin and other factors and made faulty assumptions that Trump would lose to Clinton.There were other problems, too. Predictive features on websites gained lots of traffic before the election but caused lots of consternation afterward. HuffPost's model infamously showed Clinton with a 98 percent chance of winning. "We blew it," the site admitted afterward.But just as importantly, HuffPost's Natalie Jackson tried to explain why.Other news outlets have also tried to be more transparent and remind voters of what polls cannot convey.In special elections since 2016, Democrats have repeatedly outperformed polls of their races.The top example was the Virginia governors' race. "Ralph Northam was favored by three points. He ended up winning by nine," Enten said.But past outcomes are not an indicator of future results."I think many pollsters and forecasters have tried to be much more intentional about explaining uncertainty and being humble about what data can and can't tell us," Anderson said. "Because I think there was a big sense that in 2016, there was more certainty conveyed than may have been justified by the available data."So political pros and reporters are communicating poll results differently this time. Time magazine's Molly Ball, who has a no-predictions rule for herself, said that even people who do make predictions are adding more caveats: There's "less of the, 'Well, the needle shows this' and more of, 'Here's what it doesn't show, here's what we should always remember can happen about probabilities.'"Early voting has been explosive in the midterms, indicating above-average enthusiasm among both Democrats and Republicans. Pollsters have to make assumptions about turnout when contacting "likely voters," and this is a difficult election to forecast.The 2018 electorate is "a universe that doesn't exist yet," Democratic pollster Margie Omero said. "I mean, people don't know whether they're going to vote, some people."They may tell a pollster that they're sure to vote, but never make it to the ballot box. Or they might change who they're voting for.Conversely, certain subsets of voters may have a big impact on the final results without really showing up in the pre-election polling. If pollsters assume relatively low youth turnout, but lots of young people vote for the first time, that could cause big surprises in certain races.The vast majority of people who are called by pollsters decline to participate, so the researchers have to make a huge number of phone calls, bend over backwards to reach a representative sample of people, and weight their results accordingly.Some polls are higher quality than others. Most news outlets tend to favor live interviewers, as opposed to computerized systems, and a mix of landline and cell phone calls. But some outlets are wading into web-based polling. CNN's polling standards preclude reporting on web polls.This fall The New York Times pulled back the curtain by conducting "live polling" and publishing the results in real time, call by call. Working with Siena College, the surveyors made 2,822,889 calls and completed 96 polls of House and Senate races."We wanted to demystify polling for people," said Nate Cohn of The Times' Upshot blog."From our point of view, it's almost a miracle how accurate polls usually are, given all the challenges," Cohn said in an interview with CNN.He emphasized that polls are "very fuzzy things." And the real-time polling showed this to the public. The researchers sought to interview about 500 people for each race that was examined.In Iowa's fourth congressional district, for example, 14,636 calls resulted in 423 interviews.The results showed the incumbent, far-right congressman Steve King, with 47% support, and his Democratic challenger J.D. Scholten with 42%.The Times characterized this as a "slight edge" for King, with lots of room for error. "The margin of sampling error on the overall lead is 10 points, roughly twice as large as the margin for a single candidate's vote share," the Times explained on its website.Cohn's final pre-election story noted that "even modest late shifts among undecided voters or a slightly unexpected turnout could significantly affect results."That's the kind of language that lots of polling experts are incorporating into their stories and live shots, especially in the wake of the 2016 election."With polling, you never actually get to the truth," Cohn said. "You inch towards it, and you think you end up within plus or minus 5 points of it at the end."As Enten put it, "polls are tools," not meant to be perfect. But that message needs to be reinforced through the news media. 6753

The number of US citizens seeking refuge in Canada skyrocketed last year.Exactly 2,550 Americans applied for asylum in Canada in 2017, according to data from Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada. That's more than a sixfold increase from the 395 Americans who applied in 2016.It's believed that the hard-line immigration policies of President Donald Trump have fueled the increase in the number of Americans fleeing to Canada.The United States supplied the third-highest number of asylum-seekers to Canada in 2017, topped by Haiti (7,785 applicants) at No. 1 and Nigeria (6,005 applicants) at No. 2.There's a large number of asylum-seekers this year as well, with 1,215 Americans requesting refuge in Canada through the end of August.Canadian officials said that while Canada remains an open, welcoming country, crossing into it is not "a ticket for permanent residence.""Coming to Canada, asking for asylum in Canada is not a guarantee for permanent residence in Canada," Louis Dumas, a spokesman for the immigration ministry, said last year. 1063

The pandemic has brought on a shortage of toilet paper, cleaning supplies and disinfectants. Now there's a new shortfall in the form of currency.The coin supply has been disrupted, forcing the Federal Reserve to step in.Like everything else in our lives, COVID-19 got in the way. This time it’s affecting the currency supply by causing fewer coins.Now, the U.S Mint is trying to keep up with the demand.Jim Gaherity of Coinstar, which has 22,000 kiosks around the world, says this is a call to action.“What’s happened during the pandemic is businesses have been shut down without access to buy your daily coffee, afternoon sandwich, which most purchases of small items is done by cash,” Gaherity said. “In the US, the ability of the consumer to recirculate that coin back into the retail, which then goes back into the bank, slowed down significantly.”The 29-year-old company is mainly featured in grocery stores and banks. People come in with loose change and get a voucher for folding money, or these days, you can load your Starbucks and Amazon account, donate to charity, or buy bitcoin. Gaherity says, believe it or not, most of those coins are now stuck in people's homes.“The vast majority of coins is (sic) recirculated through typical use of consumer,” Gaherity said. “They’re either taking it and buying things from store. which goes into till which then goes back into the banking system into inventories, or they’re going to aggregators like Coinstar.”The way money is funneled through our country is like a big cycle. The mint produces a new coin and it goes through the federal reserve bank, which then takes orders from banks and distributes it.“What banks do is look historically in terms of retail orders that they’re getting,” Gaherity said. “Retail is getting coin and currency from their local bank and they know historically what that volume typically looks like so they place their orders in advance to fulfill the need from retail.”Businesses and consumers help move it around too.“Coinstar recirculates more coins every year in the US by 3.5 times what the US mint produces,” Gaherity said.Those Coinstar kiosk bins weigh about 700 pounds when collected. That's a lot of pennies, nickels, dimes and quarters. Trucks pick it up and swap it out.“That coin goes on the truck and into a processing center,” Gaherity said. “It’s places like Loomis and Brinks where we deliver that coin. They take those bins and fine count every single piece and distribute into denominational bins so all the pennies, nickels, dimes, all get segregated. Once that’s all done and count is complete, it goes back into the local bank.”Coinstar is doing extra pickups to help recirculate as much as they can. There's just not enough out there because people aren't putting it back into the system.Asked if coins are, like toilet paper once was, the next thing that people are hoarding. Gaherity said, “That’s the question we’re trying to answer. We work with the Mint and Federal Reserve to try and understand better are banks hoarding it right now? Are they keeping it for themselves for their customer calls to start again? If you think about a bank that services Walmart, they want to have enough coin in their inventory to deliver to Walmart for their registers. They don’t want to disappoint Walmart. Nobody wants to disappoint their retailers.”Banks are the largest recycler of coins. They, like the rest of us, are watching, waiting, to be able to resume normal routines. When we asked what's next, Gaherity said, “That is the question of the day. How do we get the right supply to meet the demand that’s out there? What we’re asking Americans is come out and do your normal transactions, go to a Coinstar, go to a bank and make despots so we can see recirculated coin fill the pipeline enough for the demand we have.”The good news he says, is that the European Coinstar Operations are back online and normal. 3923