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As the Summer of COVID draws to a close, many experts fear an even bleaker fall and suggest that American families should start planning for Thanksgiving by Zoom.Because of the many uncertainties, public health scientists say it’s easier to forecast the weather on Thanksgiving Day than to predict how the U.S. coronavirus crisis will play out this autumn. But school reopenings, holiday travel and more indoor activity because of colder weather could all separately increase transmission of the virus and combine in ways that could multiply the threat, they say.Here’s one way it could go: As more schools open for in-person instruction and more college students return to campuses, small clusters of cases could widen into outbreaks in late September. Public fatigue over mask rules and other restrictions could stymie efforts to slow these infections.A few weeks later, widening outbreaks could start to strain hospitals. If a bad flu season peaks in October, as happened in 2009, the pressure on the health care system could result in higher daily death tolls from the coronavirus. Dr. Robert Redfield, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, has said that scenario is his biggest fear.One certainty is that the virus will still be around, said Jarad Niemi, a disease-modeling expert at Iowa State University.“We will not have a vaccine yet and we will not have enough infected individuals for herd immunity to be helpful,” Niemi said.Fall may feel like a roller coaster of stop-and-start restrictions, as communities react to climbing hospital cases, said University of Texas disease modeler Lauren Ancel Meyers. Everyone should get a flu shot, she said, because if flu spreads widely, hospitals will begin to buckle and “that will compound the threat of COVID.”“The decisions we make today will fundamentally impact the safety and feasibility of what we can do next month and by Thanksgiving,” Meyers said.The virus is blamed for over 180,000 deaths and 6 million confirmed infections in the U.S. Worldwide, the death toll is put at almost 850,000, with over 25 million cases.The U.S. is recording on average about 900 deaths a day from COVID-19, and newly confirmed infections per day are running at about 42,000, down from their peak in mid-July, when cases were topping out at over 70,000.Around the country, a chicken processing plant in California will close this week for deep cleaning after nearly 400 workers got sick, including eight who died. And college campuses have been hit by outbreaks involving hundreds of students, blamed in some cases on too much partying. Schools including the University of North Carolina, Michigan State and Notre Dame have moved instruction online because of clusters on their campuses.Several vaccines are in advanced testing, and researchers hope to have results later this year. But even if a vaccine is declared safe and effective by year’s end, as some expect, there won’t be enough for everyone who wants it right away.Several companies are developing rapid, at-home tests, which conceivably could be used by families before a Thanksgiving gathering, but none has yet won approval.More than 90 million adults are over 65 or have health problems, putting them in higher danger of severe consequences if they get sick with the coronavirus. Many of them and their families are starting to decide whether to book holiday flights.Cassie Docking, 44, an urgent care nurse in Seattle, is telling her parents — both cancer survivors — that Thanksgiving will be by FaceTime only.“We all want to get to 2021,” she said, “and if that’s what it takes, that’s what we’ll do.”Caitlin Joyce’s family is forging ahead with a holiday feast. They plan to set up plywood tables on sawhorses in a large garage so they can sit 6 feet apart.“We’ll be in our coats and our sweaters,” said Joyce, 30, of Edmonds, Washington, who plans to travel to her grandparents’ home in Virginia. “It will be almost like camping.”One widely cited disease model projects 2,086 U.S. deaths per day by Thanksgiving, more than double compared with today.“In our family we will not have our extended family get-together. We will stick to the nuclear family,” said Dr. Christopher Murray of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, one of the few models making a prediction for November.Uncertainty is huge in Murray’s model: Daily deaths could be as low as 1,500 by Thanksgiving or as high as 3,100. In a more optimistic scenario, daily deaths could range from 510 to 1,200 if nearly everyone wears masks. A more pessimistic scenario? From 2,700 to 6,500 daily deaths if social distancing rules continue to be lifted and are not reimposed.With all the uncertainty, most disease modelers aren’t looking that far ahead — at least officially.Jeffrey Shaman, a public health expert at Columbia University, thinks the virus will spread more easily as the weather forces people indoors: “But what level of a bump? That’s hard to say.”At Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh, computer scientist Roni Rosenfeld’s team uses machine learning to project COVID-19 deaths. The team’s computer algorithm learns from patterns it finds in state and county data to improve its forecasts.A five-time winner of a CDC competition for predicting flu season activity, Rosenfeld thinks his model’s COVID-19 projections aren’t very useful beyond four weeks because of the wild card of human behavior, including that of government officials.“What happens very much depends on us,” he said. “People, myself included, don’t always behave rationally.” Presented with the same facts, “the same person might behave differently depending on how sick and tired they are of the situation.”Like other disease modelers, Rosenfeld said the virus will still be with us at Thanksgiving, readily spreading at family gatherings. While his plans may yet change, he said he is going to travel with his wife to visit their adult children. They will wear masks and keep a safe distance during the visit.___The Associated Press Health and Science Department receives support from the Howard Hughes Medical Institute’s Department of Science Education. The AP is solely responsible for all content. 6201

Back-to-school shopping is an expensive chore in a normal year; this year is anything but normal. But with August upon us, stores are putting out back-to-school displays in anticipation of children needing to learn, whether in the classroom or at home.Two-fifths (40%) of parents with children in K-12 or college anticipate their children will be attending classes in a hybrid environment (both in-person and remote) in the fall of 2020, according to a new NerdWallet survey conducted online July 16-20 by The Harris Poll among over 600 parents. Planning for multiple scenarios could result in the need for increased back-to-school spending, but many may not have the extra money this year.Nearly half (47%) of parents expect they’ll spend less on back-to-school shopping than they otherwise would, due to the coronavirus pandemic, according to the survey. Of them, 40% say it’s because their household income has been affected by the pandemic and related economic effects.On the other hand, one-fifth (20%) of parents expect to spend more this year on back-to-school purchases than they otherwise would, due to the pandemic. Of them, 54% think they’ll be spending more to outfit a home learning environment, and 50% will be spending more to account for supplies for both in-person and at-home learning.“Saving on back-to-school shopping takes some strategizing in a normal school year, but this year poses unique challenges: Not only is it harder to know what students might need, but many families are eyeing big purchases to make remote learning easier, including electronics and desks,” says Kimberly Palmer, personal finance expert at NerdWallet. “At the same time, many families have less room in their budget to make new purchases because of the pandemic.”1. Shop for the short termWhether you’re spending less this year out of necessity or you’re anticipating having to spend more: Buy only what you need. If 2020 has taught us anything, it’s that well-laid plans can change. So purchase what you need to get the school year started and plan to supplement those purchases as the semester unfolds. You may find that some items get less expensive as the seasons change.“Unless you have your eye on a specific type of computer or another item that could sell out, it’s OK to wait to make your purchases until after the school year begins — in fact, that’s when you see many of the best deals,” Palmer says.2. Take advantage of credit card rewardsMore than half (53%) of parents who will back-to-school shop this year plan to use a credit card on those purchases, according to the survey. Putting your expenses on a cash-back credit card could put your money to work for you. You may even reap enough to cover next year’s back-to-school expenses entirely. Just make sure you’re able to pay off the balance each cycle, as interest can quickly negate any benefits.3. Check prices before and after shoppingPrice matching involves comparing identical items at other stores and asking a retailer to match a lower price. The trick may not make sense for a package of pencils, but for clothing, electronics and other higher-dollar items, a successful price match could save you tens of dollars, if not more.Check a retailer’s website for its price matching policy details. Many will also refund the price difference if you spot a cheaper price within a certain time frame after the purchase.4. Team up to buy in bulkRegardless of where your child is learning this fall, they’ll need supplies that other students are also after. By teaming up with other parents, you can purchase things like hand sanitizer and supplies for homework and note-taking in bulk. If your child’s teacher is reluctant to give out parents’ contact information, ask if they would send out yours in a group email so other parents can reach you if they’re interested in group savings.“With many parents focused on at-home learning, you can also find savings by teaming up with other families in your neighborhood on purchases,” Palmer says. “Some communities are forming ‘pandemic pods’ to share the burden of teaching at home and keep kids socialized — pooling school supplies across the pod can spread the expenses and make them more manageable.”5. Shop on tax-free holidaysSixteen states are having sales tax holidays in August 2020. Most of them last through a full weekend, and some even longer. Retailers that offer online ordering for in-store pickup may require you to order and pick up on those particular days to reap the tax-free benefits. The specifics of each state’s holiday vary, but generally, they allow you to purchase certain back-to-school items without paying sales tax.6. Practice and teach thriftinessIf money is very tight, your child might be able to reuse some of last year’s supplies such as their backpack or leftover pencils and notebooks. You can also shop secondhand on sites like Poshmark or thredUP for clothing throughout the school year. And don’t be afraid to ask for help — many schools are putting programs in place that help outfit homes with the technology needed for remote learning.If your child isn’t accustomed to having to make sacrifices like this, use them as a teachable moment. Older kids can learn the complexities of managing a budget, a tool they’ll need in adulthood, and younger ones can learn what saving money means and help you search for the lowest prices.“Some communities are also organizing online volunteer opportunities for high schoolers to help match up with elementary school children who need extra help, which can be a great way to provide learning opportunities to both age groups in a safe, free way,” Palmer adds. “This school year will be unlike any other, which means parents and children will have to get more creative with stretching their back-to-school budgets.”More From NerdWalletWhat to Know Before Laying Down Money for a MattressWhat to Buy (and Skip) in FebruaryHere’s When Everything Will Go on Sale in 2020Elizabeth Renter is a writer at NerdWallet. Email: elizabeth@nerdwallet.com. Twitter: @elizabethrenter. 6071

At a press briefing in Washington on Friday, Vice President Mike Pence said the White House coronavirus task force had identified 16 states — about one-third of all states in the nation — where COVID-19 cases are on the rise.According to Pence, in the other 34 states, there is a "measure of "stability" among cases — saying that while these states may experience new cases, "positivity rates are stable."Pence said that most of the states with rising cases are in the "Sun Belt." He said that he and other health officials would travel to Arizona, Florida and Texas — three states experiencing severe spikes in cases — next week, to meet with governors.The task force reported that a majority of new cases have been reported in people younger than 34 — a development that Pence called "encouraging" in some ways because young people are more likely to recover from the virus.According to Pence, there have been 2.5 million confirmed cases of the virus in the U.S. According to Johns Hopkins, there are about 4,425,000 confirmed cases of the virus.During Friday's briefing, Dr. Anthony Fauci — America's top expert on infectious diseases — said that some areas of the country as facing a "serious problem" amid rising numbers. He added that Americans have a "societal responsibility" to continue social distancing, adding that those who leave their home for crowded places become part of an infectious chain."Ultimately, you will infect someone who is vulnerable," Fauci said.The task force and President Donald Trump held near-daily briefings throughout March and April. But the nation's top health experts have rarely appeared on-camera in recent weeks as the administration has focused on re-starting the economy.The briefing comes a day after Johns Hopkins reported 40,000 new cases of the novel coronavirus, the highest single-day increase since the pandemic began. President Donald Trump has maintained that the increase in cases is the result of increased testing capacity, but the CDC reports hospitalizations linked to the virus are also on the rise.It also comes following a week of confusing messaging regarding the administration's policy on testing. On Saturday at a rally in Oklahoma, Trump told supporters that he asked that testing be "slowed down" to deflate new case numbers artificially. On Monday, press secretary Kayleigh McEnany said Trump made those comments "in jest," but Trump quickly contradicted her, saying he "doesn't kid." Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation's top infectious disease expert, later testified at a House committee hearing that he had not been told by anyone in the administration to slow down testing, and that increasing testing capacity remains the goal of the task force.Several states that were quick to lift lockdown restrictions are now moving to re-impose social distancing measures. On Friday, Texas ordered the closure of bars and re-imposed limits on in-restaurant dining. Also on Friday, Florida ordered that bars can no longer serve alcohol on-site as cases continue to spike. 3036

As we all prepare for a drastically different school year, parents are trying to figure out how to balance their work and virtual learning for their children as many districts across the country announce students will have at least a portion of their instruction at home.Uma Samynathan, owner and director of a Code Ninjas franchise in San Diego, showed her facility that includes a "Game Builders Club.”“We teach them how to build their own world rather than have them play a customized world on a tablet,” Samynathan said.She says her franchise was the first on the west coast. Two years in, she's encouraged and inspired by how fast kids learn.“What I love most is connecting with the kids and getting excited about the way they learn,” Samynathan said. “They are so unique, each one of them. If they (watched) a YouTube channel last night, they can tell me what was so interesting about the channel immediately. They’ll go to the rowlocks camera and start implanting that same thing."They've been doing virtual learning all summer, and they're about to do it a lot more. This time around though, many franchises like Samynathan's are offering parents a helping hand by providing assistance with a student's distance learning and provide some coding fun on the side."We can offer a STEM-based learning where they can learn coding, robotics, and they can do academics, homework,” Samynathan said. “If they’re going to cover a subject at school, we do it prior so they have a better understanding in doing that particular subject.”Some Code Ninja centers, like the one in Los Alamitos, California, sent out a survey to parents. They're taking about hiring an elementary school teacher to help proctor the learning so parents can work and kids can stay on task in their classroom while learning online. It's something that Nina Foster, mom to an 11-year-old in San Diego, is considering.“Preston is anxious to do more things on the outside again we may go back to doing one hour in the studio one at home, something like that,” Foster said.So far, Preston has kept up his coding skills through the center's virtual program and he's excelled.“He’s almost through the program,” Foster said. “He’s on the purple level -- it goes up to black just like karate. Once you get to the black level, you create your own app. From there, they’re joking that he could become a junior sensei until he’s old enough to work there.”Samynathan says Code Ninjas helps develop that out-of-the-box thinking."This is the best time for kids to get equipped with coding technological skills, they always want their tablet, they’re always playing games. Why not get creative why not learn to code on their favorite game?” she said.And what better time than now to help kids embrace the skills they'll need to propel them into a digital future? 2826

As the opioid crisis continues to damage communities across the country, new mapping technology is helping family members of victims cope by allowing them to crowdsource an interactive memorial.The "Celebrating Lost Loved Ones" map, created a couple of months ago, now marks the lives of thousands people lost to opioids. The map was created by engineer Jeremiah Lindemann and allows users to add photos and short stories of loved ones who have passed away, including the place of their passing.The goal of the map is to create a place to honor and respect overdose victims across the United States."(We want a map) that emphasizes the human toll behind the opioid crisis with a visual record of the victims it is leaving behind," Lindemann said. 764

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