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As the Summer of COVID draws to a close, many experts fear an even bleaker fall and suggest that American families should start planning for Thanksgiving by Zoom.Because of the many uncertainties, public health scientists say it’s easier to forecast the weather on Thanksgiving Day than to predict how the U.S. coronavirus crisis will play out this autumn. But school reopenings, holiday travel and more indoor activity because of colder weather could all separately increase transmission of the virus and combine in ways that could multiply the threat, they say.Here’s one way it could go: As more schools open for in-person instruction and more college students return to campuses, small clusters of cases could widen into outbreaks in late September. Public fatigue over mask rules and other restrictions could stymie efforts to slow these infections.A few weeks later, widening outbreaks could start to strain hospitals. If a bad flu season peaks in October, as happened in 2009, the pressure on the health care system could result in higher daily death tolls from the coronavirus. Dr. Robert Redfield, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, has said that scenario is his biggest fear.One certainty is that the virus will still be around, said Jarad Niemi, a disease-modeling expert at Iowa State University.“We will not have a vaccine yet and we will not have enough infected individuals for herd immunity to be helpful,” Niemi said.Fall may feel like a roller coaster of stop-and-start restrictions, as communities react to climbing hospital cases, said University of Texas disease modeler Lauren Ancel Meyers. Everyone should get a flu shot, she said, because if flu spreads widely, hospitals will begin to buckle and “that will compound the threat of COVID.”“The decisions we make today will fundamentally impact the safety and feasibility of what we can do next month and by Thanksgiving,” Meyers said.The virus is blamed for over 180,000 deaths and 6 million confirmed infections in the U.S. Worldwide, the death toll is put at almost 850,000, with over 25 million cases.The U.S. is recording on average about 900 deaths a day from COVID-19, and newly confirmed infections per day are running at about 42,000, down from their peak in mid-July, when cases were topping out at over 70,000.Around the country, a chicken processing plant in California will close this week for deep cleaning after nearly 400 workers got sick, including eight who died. And college campuses have been hit by outbreaks involving hundreds of students, blamed in some cases on too much partying. Schools including the University of North Carolina, Michigan State and Notre Dame have moved instruction online because of clusters on their campuses.Several vaccines are in advanced testing, and researchers hope to have results later this year. But even if a vaccine is declared safe and effective by year’s end, as some expect, there won’t be enough for everyone who wants it right away.Several companies are developing rapid, at-home tests, which conceivably could be used by families before a Thanksgiving gathering, but none has yet won approval.More than 90 million adults are over 65 or have health problems, putting them in higher danger of severe consequences if they get sick with the coronavirus. Many of them and their families are starting to decide whether to book holiday flights.Cassie Docking, 44, an urgent care nurse in Seattle, is telling her parents — both cancer survivors — that Thanksgiving will be by FaceTime only.“We all want to get to 2021,” she said, “and if that’s what it takes, that’s what we’ll do.”Caitlin Joyce’s family is forging ahead with a holiday feast. They plan to set up plywood tables on sawhorses in a large garage so they can sit 6 feet apart.“We’ll be in our coats and our sweaters,” said Joyce, 30, of Edmonds, Washington, who plans to travel to her grandparents’ home in Virginia. “It will be almost like camping.”One widely cited disease model projects 2,086 U.S. deaths per day by Thanksgiving, more than double compared with today.“In our family we will not have our extended family get-together. We will stick to the nuclear family,” said Dr. Christopher Murray of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, one of the few models making a prediction for November.Uncertainty is huge in Murray’s model: Daily deaths could be as low as 1,500 by Thanksgiving or as high as 3,100. In a more optimistic scenario, daily deaths could range from 510 to 1,200 if nearly everyone wears masks. A more pessimistic scenario? From 2,700 to 6,500 daily deaths if social distancing rules continue to be lifted and are not reimposed.With all the uncertainty, most disease modelers aren’t looking that far ahead — at least officially.Jeffrey Shaman, a public health expert at Columbia University, thinks the virus will spread more easily as the weather forces people indoors: “But what level of a bump? That’s hard to say.”At Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh, computer scientist Roni Rosenfeld’s team uses machine learning to project COVID-19 deaths. The team’s computer algorithm learns from patterns it finds in state and county data to improve its forecasts.A five-time winner of a CDC competition for predicting flu season activity, Rosenfeld thinks his model’s COVID-19 projections aren’t very useful beyond four weeks because of the wild card of human behavior, including that of government officials.“What happens very much depends on us,” he said. “People, myself included, don’t always behave rationally.” Presented with the same facts, “the same person might behave differently depending on how sick and tired they are of the situation.”Like other disease modelers, Rosenfeld said the virus will still be with us at Thanksgiving, readily spreading at family gatherings. While his plans may yet change, he said he is going to travel with his wife to visit their adult children. They will wear masks and keep a safe distance during the visit.___The Associated Press Health and Science Department receives support from the Howard Hughes Medical Institute’s Department of Science Education. The AP is solely responsible for all content. 6201

At this extremely difficult time we would like to express our gratitude to all of those who have reached out to our family following the tragic loss of Alanna, June and Ruby. They were all loved dearly by their family and friends, and they will be greatly missed. We are broken-hearted by their loss but sustained by our faith. We believe in a loving Heavenly Father who comforts his children in the midst of their most painful trials. We are steadfast and confident in knowing that our family will be reunited in the life to come. We thank the police, other first responders, friends, family and the media for their kind words about these wonderful girls and their mother. We trust you will allow us private time to mourn. 731

As schools start re-opening around the country, daycare and early childhood education centers are opening too.A question on the mind of parents is, "Should you send your toddler or preschooler back?"Like every other working mom, Danielle Green admits it's challenging. She basically has two jobs. Her career as a scientist, and her around-the-clock job of mom to 2-year-old Corey and 6-month-old Dylan keeps her busy.“Having children is a full-time job in itself so it turns more into a full-time job watching kids during the day and then doing the work during nap and evening,” Green said.It’s is not only exhausting, but she says, it's 100 percent, not realistic.“It adds a lot of stress for parents,” Green said. “For me, it added a lot of stress because we want to dedicate as much time as we can to our kids and so I took the path to dedicating everything to my kids and doing the work while the kids were sleeping.”So, when her daycare opened back up, Green and her husband talked and decided it was time.“There’s uncertainty in sending a child to daycare during a pandemic, but if we’re being realistic, eventually our kids are going to have to go back to school, so the question becomes at what point do we re-enroll them,” Green said.It's a topic that parents all around the country are discussing, because we all know it’s hard to do both. Parenting expert Gigi Schweikert said give up the dream of doing it all because no one can.“What I know as a working parent of four is that you can’t give your work 100% and you can’t give your children 100% so having your children in childcare gives them the opportunity to have the education socialization and guidance they need while you as a working parent can have that individualized concentrated time to give work your full attention,”Schweikert said.But to send your children back during a pandemic isn't easy. You have to do quite a bit of homework, make sure no one is allowed in the center aside from your child and staff members, and review all the protective measures for your county and state.Things like temperature checks, masks and face shields are being required at some daycares. Experts suggest inquiring about ventilation and cleanliness. And get parent referrals. A lot of them.“What really is important is trust. You’re going to need to check off all the boxes of making sure people are cleaning, making sure air is really good. Instinctually once you make that checklist, you have to say as a parent, 'Do I trust these people with my most important thing which is my child,'” Schweikert said.There are some things that might be missing because of COVID-19, like parent and teacher visits. Some facilities like Lightbridge Academy are now reliant on electronics and in-center cameras.Green said she's confident in her decision. Her boys are happy and healthy every day, and she feels confident that she's successfully managing her career.“It makes me feel good to know that the daycare is actually practicing the appropriate safety precautions and wearing the appropriate protective equipment, take temperatures it is an added measure,” Green said. 3130

As we all prepare for a drastically different school year, parents are trying to figure out how to balance their work and virtual learning for their children as many districts across the country announce students will have at least a portion of their instruction at home.Uma Samynathan, owner and director of a Code Ninjas franchise in San Diego, showed her facility that includes a "Game Builders Club.”“We teach them how to build their own world rather than have them play a customized world on a tablet,” Samynathan said.She says her franchise was the first on the west coast. Two years in, she's encouraged and inspired by how fast kids learn.“What I love most is connecting with the kids and getting excited about the way they learn,” Samynathan said. “They are so unique, each one of them. If they (watched) a YouTube channel last night, they can tell me what was so interesting about the channel immediately. They’ll go to the rowlocks camera and start implanting that same thing."They've been doing virtual learning all summer, and they're about to do it a lot more. This time around though, many franchises like Samynathan's are offering parents a helping hand by providing assistance with a student's distance learning and provide some coding fun on the side."We can offer a STEM-based learning where they can learn coding, robotics, and they can do academics, homework,” Samynathan said. “If they’re going to cover a subject at school, we do it prior so they have a better understanding in doing that particular subject.”Some Code Ninja centers, like the one in Los Alamitos, California, sent out a survey to parents. They're taking about hiring an elementary school teacher to help proctor the learning so parents can work and kids can stay on task in their classroom while learning online. It's something that Nina Foster, mom to an 11-year-old in San Diego, is considering.“Preston is anxious to do more things on the outside again we may go back to doing one hour in the studio one at home, something like that,” Foster said.So far, Preston has kept up his coding skills through the center's virtual program and he's excelled.“He’s almost through the program,” Foster said. “He’s on the purple level -- it goes up to black just like karate. Once you get to the black level, you create your own app. From there, they’re joking that he could become a junior sensei until he’s old enough to work there.”Samynathan says Code Ninjas helps develop that out-of-the-box thinking."This is the best time for kids to get equipped with coding technological skills, they always want their tablet, they’re always playing games. Why not get creative why not learn to code on their favorite game?” she said.And what better time than now to help kids embrace the skills they'll need to propel them into a digital future? 2826

ATLANTA — Georgia’s top elections official on Friday certified election results showing Joe Biden won the presidential election after a hand tally stemming from a mandatory audit affirmed the Democrat’s lead over Republican President Donald Trump.Friday morning, Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger held a press conference to say his office would certify the results following the recount.“Working as an engineer throughout my life, I live by the motto that numbers don’t lie,” Raffensperger said at the state Capitol. “As secretary of state, I believe that the numbers that we have presented today are correct. The numbers reflect the verdict of the people, not a decision by the secretary of state’s office or of courts or of either campaign.”The Georgia hand recount results were 2,475,141 votes for president-elect Joe Biden and 2,462,857 votes for President Trump. Biden's lead is about .25 percent of the vote. Georgia's 16 electoral college votes will go to Biden, given him a projected 306 votes, well above the 270 needed to become president."In certifying the results, the Secretary of State affirmed that all 159 counties have provided to the state the total votes tabulated for each state and federal candidate. Further, the Secretary of State affirms that the statewide consolidated returns for state and federal offices are a true and correct tabulation of the certified returns by this office from each county," the statement from Raffensperger's office earlier in the day Friday reads.Now, Gov. Brian Kemp has until 5 p.m. Saturday to certify the state’s slate of presidential electors.The Trump campaign has until next Tuesday evening, November 24, to request another recount of the results, which would be a re-scan of the ballots that were hand-recounted.Raffensperger also said Friday morning he plans to propose election-law changes aimed at increasing trust in the results, by allowing state officials to intervene in counties that have systemic problems in administering elections, requiring photo ID for absentee voting and enabling more challenges to voters who might not live where they say.State lawmakers would have to make these changes in state law. 2189

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