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BEIJING, May 3 (Xinhua) -- Decoupling from the world, and the economic downturn much of it is experiencing, has proven impossible for China. But its resilience is receiving more recognition, with many leading financial institutions upgrading their 2009 growth forecasts since mid-April. The adjustments for gross domestic product (GDP) growth, ranging from 0.5 to 2.3 percentage points, were based on signs of a turnaround in the first quarter. These indicators included stronger-than-expected real GDP growth, recovering property investment, a pick-up in power consumption and a surge in bank lending. Merrill Lynch & Co. said it expected China's GDP to grow 7.2 percent in the second quarter and 8 percent this year, while Goldman Sachs raised its projection from 6 percent to 8.3 percent, the most optimistic forecast so far. Other forecasts include UBS, which raised its estimate by 0.5 point to 7 percent and CLSA Asia-Pacific, which lifted its outlook by 1.5 point to 7 percent. China's policymakers can take heart from these forecasts. Every upward revision, big or small, given the global economic slowdown, might point to a better chance for the nation to achieve its 8-percent growth target. That level of growth is considered necessary to raise living standards while maintaining social stability. But there's still the question of whether rapid growth is sustainable. Some analysts believe it isn't unless China can rebalance its economy and achieve higher efficiency, lower environmental costs and a more reasonable balance among investment, trade and consumption. QUANTITY OR QUALITY? In an interview with Xinhua, Stephen Roach, chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia, urged Chinese authorities to get more serious about stimulating private consumption because the global economy remains "pretty weak" and might only achieve a weak recovery. "China has responded to the crisis the way it has always responded to global problems. That is, using proactive fiscal stimulus mainly in the infrastructure area to provide temporary support in the downturn until the global economy comes back. It worked in the 1997 Asian financial crisis and the 2000-2001 mild recession. But this is a different sort of problem," said Roach. "Once the stimulus wears off and if there is no follow-through, the Chinese economy will weaken again. I don't think exports will recover in the weak global economy." Domestic economists voice similar worries, saying that the speed of growth doesn't matter as much as the quality. Liu Shangxi, deputy dean of the Research Institute for Fiscal Science at the Ministry of Finance, said that the 6.1-percent year-on-year growth in the first quarter had been "fairly good" for China. But, he said, "sometimes, it's worth slowing down a bit to have the economy move more stably." Wang Xiaoguang, an economist with the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), the chief planning agency. said that the government's annual growth target had become mostly symbolic. For five years in a row, the target was 8 percent, and for five years in a row, the growth rate overshot the target. Wang said the government had faced a dilemma: a cut in the target might undermine public confidence while a rise might tempt local governments to over-invest to meet a high growth target. The turnaround signs mostly reflected the impact of the 4-trillion-yuan (586 billion U.S. dollars) stimulus package. Meanwhile, retail sales still trailed investment in contributing to growth. Local economists warned that the economy remained unbalanced and vulnerable. "Historical records show that adjustments in the Chinese economy would take two to three years, on average. Seven months have passed since the impact of the global financial crisis began to tell on the local economy. "With a turnaround in sight, recovery might come earlier than expected but there are still risks of a further slowdown," Chen Dongqi, deputy chief of the Macro-Economic Research Institute under the NDRC, told a business development forum in Guangdong in late April. BUYING CURE It's widely accepted among economists that China should boost domestic private consumption by leading individuals to buy more and save less. The key question is: how? "Two big programs" Roach advocates call for doubling the investment in social security immediately to 150 billion U.S. dollars and establishing a goal of raising consumption as a share of the economy from 36 percent to 50 percent within five years. "What I think is missing here is the social safety net, social security pension and unemployment insurance. Because of the absence of the safety net, China has seen a high level of precautionary saving," he said. Roach suggested that China develop a private pension system in particular so total employee compensation could rise in tandem with productivity. "Chinese companies need to partner with their workers and provide medical care [and] retirement investing for their workforce. Chinese workers' total pay package should have both wages and benefits," he said. Liu agreed that the primary task in expanding consumption was to raise incomes. "Securing the legitimate interests of workers is particularly significant when the economy slumps. It would be like drinking poison to quench one's thirst if businesses sought to expand corporate earnings at the cost of workers' pay and benefits," he said. Low labor costs and massive capacity have propped up China's prosperity over the past decades. But the proportion of wages to national income has been on a long decline since the 1990s. Between 2002 and 2006 alone, economists estimate the figure dropped from 62.1 percent to 57.1 percent. Meanwhile, the contribution of consumption to GDP growth fell from 43.6 percent to 38.9 percent. "A more meaningful index to judge the sustainability of China's economic growth would be the proportion of wages to national income," Liu said. "If this ratio did not rise, people would remain poor, and thus expanding consumption would be empty talk." Chinese are far from wealthy. Only 4 percent of the workforce, and just 10 percent of the urban workforce, earn more than 2,000 yuan a month, the threshold for individual income tax. As Chinese residents hold 2.43 trillion yuan in aggregate deposits, economists say one immediate way to boost consumption would be to stabilize spending on staple property -- including housing and automobiles -- and support tourism and cultural activities. "People spend much of their money on housing and food. The government should encourage people to entertain themselves more," Wang said. CHINA 'NO LOCOMOTIVE' Although China might be the first major economy to recover from the downturn, economists disagree on when China will return to sustained high growth. Morgan Stanley, for example, has forecast a firm recovery by mid-year, but said sustainable growth through 2010 would still hinge on what happens in other countries. "China will be stronger. But will that strength be enough to allow others to follow in its footsteps? I don't think so," said Roach. "Most of China's resilience comes from infrastructure building, roads, property consumption ... [this] won't have an impact on the United States and Europe. This resilience is only temporary while its stimulus is local rather than global." Central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan also warned in late April during World Bank-IMF meetings in Washington that the rebound in China's economy had to be consolidated. He said conditions in China would permit rapid economic development again, once macroeconomic policies such as the stimulus plan took effect. Challenging internal and external conditions, he said, included continuously shrinking external demand, a relatively large decline in exports, overcapacity in some industries, falling government revenue and lingering employment pressure. As China emerges from the shadow of the downturn, together with many of its Western partners, the world is closely watching the socialist market economy that it is still trying to develop. It was interesting to see that there was much "the ideologically-constrained West" could learn from China, just as there was much China could learn from the West, said Roach. "China has gone slow in many areas, especially in the opening up of its financial market. But China made the right choice," he said. "Focusing on stability is a huge plus for China. But the nation must be vigilant in its financial policies, especially monetary and regulatory policies, and not allow asset bubbles and financial innovations it doesn't understand," said Roach.
WASHINGTON, June 10 (Xinhua) -- China's National People's Congress (NPC) and the U.S. House of Representatives have wrapped up their 10th meeting under a parliamentary exchange mechanism in Washington after having an in-depth exchange of views on bilateral ties, inter-parliamentary exchanges, global financial crisis, climate change and international and regional issues of mutual concern. The meeting, held here on Tuesday, was co-chaired by Chairman Li Zhaoxing of the NPC Foreign Affairs Committee and Representative Joseph Crowley, chairman of the counterpart exchange mechanism in the House. During the meeting, the Chinese side said that with growing common interests and greater opportunities of cooperation, China and the U.S. should further increase mutual trust and cooperation from strategic and long-term perspectives, respect and take care of each other's core interests, handle differences and sensitive issues with prudence, and ensure a healthy, stable growth of bilateral relationship. The U.S. side reaffirmed the importance it has attached to the U.S.-China relationship and said that the House of Representatives will work to help the two countries tackle issues such as global financial crisis, climate change and energy safety through further exchanges and dialogues with NPC. Both delegations agreed that the existing parliamentary exchange mechanism has become the most direct and effective platform for communications between the two sides and has played a positive role in deepening mutual understanding, building consensus and promoting cooperation. The two sides also discussed the necessity for the two countries to strengthen coordination in macro economic and financial policies and how to cooperate in dealing with the climate change issue. The Chinese side extended an invitation to the U.S. side on a visit to China in fall this year for the 11th meeting under the parliamentary exchange mechanism.
SHIJIAZHUANG, July 6 (Xinhua) -- Chinese top political advisor Jia Qinglin Monday encouraged private companies to go "green" by developing new energy and energy-saving technologies. In a one-day inspection tour to Langfang city of central China's Hebei Province, Jia, chairman of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), visited the XinAo Group, a local private company specialized in research and development of renewable energy and new energy. Jia Qinglin (C), chairman of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, visits XinAo Group, a private company specialized in research and development of renewable energy and new energy, during his inspection tour in Langfang, a city in north China's Hebei Province, July 6, 2009. When talking with the staff of the company, Jia said new energy and energy-saving industries would not only serve as an effective stimulus for the country's economic recovery, but were also of great potential and importance to future development. "Developing a green economy has been widely recognized by the world. Private companies can play an important role in the development of new energy and the environment-friendly and energy-saving industries," Jia said. Jia Qinglin (C), chairman of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, visits XinAo Group, a private company specialized in research and development of renewable energy and new energy, during his inspection tour in Langfang, a city in north China's Hebei Province, July 6, 2009. He noted that China's private companies were faced with both challenges and opportunities amid the current global financial crisis, and urged them to boost research, development and trade of energy-saving products and technologies. "In this way, the private business can create new market demand and more job opportunities," he said. Jia Qinglin (2nd R Front), chairman of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, visits XinAo Group, a private company specialized in research and development of renewable energy and new energy, during his inspection tour in Langfang, a city in north China's Hebei Province, July 6, 2009. He also urged local governments and relevant trade organizations to fully recognize the important role private business played in the national economy, and give favorable policies to help them prosper. The private companies, on the other hand, should make use of the opportunities at hand, and increase their exports and improve their competitiveness in the international market, he said. Jia Qinglin (C), chairman of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, visits XinAo Group, a private company specialized in research and development of renewable energy and new energy, during his inspection tour in Langfang, a city in north China's Hebei Province, July 6, 2009.
URUMQI, July 8 (Xinhua) -- More than 100 overseas media organizations came to Urumqi, capital of northwest China's Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, to report Sunday's riot, a press official said Wednesday. "All media organizations are welcome to report the riot," said Hou Hanmin, spokeswoman for the Xinjiang regional government and in charge of the press center in Haide Hotel in downtown Urumqi. "We will do our best to provide convenience for reporters while ensuring their safety," said Hou. "We hope every media reports the incident objectively through close observation of the truth," she said. The riot, which occurred Sunday evening in Urumqi, has left 156dead and more than 1,000 others injured. Wu Nong, a press center worker, said the center had technicians to deal with communication problems for journalists. It has interpreters of English and Uygur languages.
SALZBURG, Austria, May 17 (Xinhua) -- Top Chinese legislator Wu Bangguo said here Sunday that exchanges between local regions of China and Austria constitute an important part of bilateral relations. Wu made the remarks when meeting with Simon Illmer, president of the parliament of the Salzburg Province of Austria. Wu, who is the first chairman of the Standing Committee of China's National People's Congress (NPC) to visit Austria since 1994, arrived in Salzburg from Vienna on Sunday morning, continuing his official goodwill visit to the country. Wu said Salzburg has attracted more and more Chinese tourists with its many cultural relics and beautiful natural scenes. He said China treasures its friendly cooperation with Salzburg, hoping that both sides should create a new mode for and further substantiate their cooperation. Noting China is an important trade partner of Salzburg, Illmer said he believed Wu's visit will promote cooperation in such fields as investment, environmental protection and tourism. Wu Bangguo (L), chairman of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress, China's top legislature, meets with Simon Illmer, president of the parliament of Salzburg Province of Austria, in Salzburg May 17, 2009 More than 50 Salzburg companies have invested in China, notably among them is Porsche AG. Salzburg has set up a Chinese Affair Office while forging friendly relations with Hainan Province, Shanghai City and Heilongjiang Province in China. Wu said Salzburg plays an important and unique role in China-Austria relations. Before flying to Salzburg, Wu met with Harald Reisenberger, president of the Austrian Federal Council, in Vienna on Saturday. During the meeting, Wu said that both sides should treasure the current momentum of sound development in bilateral links. Reisenberger said the strong growth of the Chinese economy has brought vigor and confidence to the international community including Austria. He expressed the wish to further enhance friendly relations with China by deepening mutually beneficial cooperation and exchanges in such areas as trade, investment, high and new technology, culture, arts, science and education. Reisenberger said members of parliament from all parts of Austria wish to strengthen cooperation with China's National People's Congress (NPC) to enhance people-to-people friendship, promote exchanges between local authorities and contribute to the development of trade and economic cooperation between the two countries. Wu said parliamentary exchanges form an important part of China-Austria relations. He said the NPC and Austrian parliament have maintained close exchange and cooperation, helped enhance the friendly relations between both sides. He hopes that the two sides should carry on this tradition by pushing forward exchanges between political parties, local governments and peoples of the two countries. The two sides should promote practical cooperation in all fields so as to add new impetus to bilateral relations. Wu also reiterated China's principled stance on Tibet-related issues, stressing that this is the political basis to advance China-Austria relations. He hopes that Austria continues to support China on issues concerning China's sovereignty and territorial integrity. Reisenberger reaffirmed that Austria will firmly adhere to the one-China policy. During his stay in Vienna, Wu also visited the Vienna high-tech zone.